Observe that, at the very
bottom of the bear market in 2009, real total return forecasts never edged higher than 7 %, which is only slightly above the long - term average return.
If we define the recent downturn as a bear market anyway, the recent low will represent the highest level of valuation that has ever prevailed at
the bottom of a bear market.
If you bought VYM at
the bottom of the bear market in 2009 and held through summer of this year, your total annualized return would have been roughly 16 %.
At
the bottom of a bear market decline, the amount lost from peak - to - trough appears so devastating that investors are often induced to sell at what is actually an extraordinary buying opportunity.
The vertical axis measures the six - month percent change in the S&P 500 from
the bottom of each bear market going back to the early 1940's.
Following
the bottom of the bear market, the price of gold saw its biggest run - up in over 30 years.
Very few savers would have reached that goal at
the bottom of a bear market!
I don't know if Friday, Oct. 10th will be heralded by historians as
the bottom of this bear market, a day on which the Dow hit an intra-day low below 8,000, but I think it might be close.
Cash is king At
the bottom of a bear market, everyone agrees cash is the best place for your money.
Few IPOs There are very few new issues (IPOs) at
the bottom of bear markets.
HP stock went on to increase to about 13 times its 1991 value at the peak of the bull market in early 2000, but then fell to about 2.4 times its 1991 value at
the bottom of the bear market in late 2002; this is about the same as I would've done in the Vanguard 500 Index fund between 1991 and 2002.
As of April 21, 2014, it was up 206 % (total return) since
the bottom of the bear market on March 9 2009.
In the table below I show that on average it took the TSX 24 months to get back to even following
the bottom of the bear market, versus 10.5 months for our preferred 60/40 portfolio.
You won't be able to time
the bottom of a bear market but a sound process will get you buying into it.
You can use the proceeds to buy stocks at
the bottom of the bear market.
All you need to do is buy back into the market at
the bottom of the bear market.
First up, the NYT, with this gorgeous info - graphic on volatility — note the peak in 2002, which marked
the bottom of the Bear markets (Oct 2002 / March 2003):
If you bought VYM at
the bottom of the bear market in 2009 and held through summer of this year, your total annualized return would have been roughly 16 %.
Similarly, at
the bottom of the bear market in October 2002, the P / E hit 33, the same level the bear market began at in March 2000.
Assets that are risky are at their safest point at
the bottom of a bear market, and their riskiest point at the top of a bull market.
Bull markets were then defined as a rise of at least 50 % from
the bottom of a bear market, over a period lasting at least 6 months.
Yes, the model also picks
the bottom of bear markets.
We are nowhere near
the bottom of a bear market.
Coppock indicator The Coppock Breadth Indicator, originally known as Trendex's Timing Technique for Texas Traders, is used to identify buy signals from around
the bottom of a bear market...
On 3/9/09, at
the bottom of the bear market and just before the raging bull started, advisors nearly doubled their allocation to conservative assets at 51 percent.
If we define the recent downturn as a bear market anyway, the recent low will represent the highest level of valuation that has ever prevailed at
the bottom of a bear market.
At
the bottom of a bear market decline, the amount lost from peak - to - trough appears so devastating that investors are often induced to sell at what is actually an extraordinary buying opportunity.
The vertical axis measures the six - month percent change in the S&P 500 from
the bottom of each bear market going back to the early 1940's.