So I think the backup is much more a function of
the broad changes in valuation, changes in the risk markets, as opposed to any early warning signs of credit deterioration.
When you purchase a
broad swath of equities, say an S&P 500 index fund, the returns you can expect over the next decade or so comprise four building blocks: the starting dividend yield, projected growth
in real earnings per share, expected inflation, and the expected
change in «
valuation» — that is, the expansion or contraction
in the price / earnings (P / E) multiple.
Over time I expect that to
change, and I'll hold stocks that have a
broader range of
valuations, whereas at the moment they are almost all
in the top 30.