By some metrics, stocks are more expensive than they've ever been, with the lone exception of the dot - com
bubble peak in 1999 - 2000.
The global economy has $ 57 trillion more debt now than it did at the
last bubble peak in 2008.
The manager's response is unambiguous: «As the rise in small cap prices accelerates and measures of valuation approach or exceed
past bubble peaks, we believe it is now fair to characterize the current small cap market as a bubble.»
If the outlook for the housing market is extremely optimistic — per the NAHB builder «confidence» report — how come these two homebuilders reduced their inventory after building them up to levels that exceeded their 2005/2006 housing
bubble peak levels?
For now, market conditions remain consistent with the speculative «blowoff» of an extreme late -
stage bubble peak.
Sure, despite being defensive «too early»
approaching bubble peaks, we've come out admirably by the completion of previous full market cycles, with the exception of this speculative half - cycle.
While home price appreciation during the housing
bubble peaked later and rose less steeply in Portland than it did nationally, home prices fell nearly as sharply.
When U.S. home prices declined steeply after the housing
bubble peaked in mid-2006, borrowers had more difficulty refinancing their loans.
«If valuations are similar or higher than
past bubble peaks, how can today's cycle not be considered a bubble?»
That's more than a year into the new bull market — remember that the S&P hit its ultimate low of 666 in March 2009, nearly nine years after that dot -
com bubble peak.
As shown, the level of real (inflation adjusted) margin debt as a percentage of real GDP has reached levels only witnessed at the peaks of the last two
financial bubble peaks in the U.S.»
Around the time the
housing bubble peaked in 2006, Fed Vice Chairman Timothy Geithner (now the Secretary of the Treasury) summed up the official outlook: «This, on balance, still leaves us with what looks like a relatively balanced set of risks around what is still a quite favorable growth forecast.»
I moved to Florida in 2005, just before the housing
bubble peaked.
One of the disturbing features of the final advance to the 2000
bubble peak was that it involved much more than just uninformed speculation by individual investors.
By David Karp, PagnatoKarp «If valuations are similar or higher than past
bubble peaks, how can today's cycle not be considered a bubble?»
I've noted before that while
the bubble peak in 2000 was the most extreme level of valuation in history on a capitalization - weighted basis, the recent speculative episode has actually exceeded that bubble from the standpoint of speculation in individual stocks.
On the basis of normalized profit margins (which improves the relationship of the CAPE with actual subsequent market returns), the margin - adjusted CAPE was 41 at the 2000
bubble peak, and is above 38 today.
During the advance to the 2000
bubble peak, I became defensive too early.
Presently, it would take less than a 10 % advance to take the S&P past 19 times record earnings on record profit margins (a level that has few historical peers outside of the 1929, 1972 and late 1990's
bubble peaks).
Neither mortgage debt nor national home prices are about to surpass
the bubble peaks, but they are headed in the right direction.
«However, the dot - com
bubble peak was a multi-trillion dollar market cap.
By contrast, negative equity is equally common among urban and suburban areas in the Seattle area, where a more balanced recovery and strong economic growth have led to home values near or exceeding
their bubble peak levels in urban and suburban areas alike.
Not all of those underwater homes were bought in 2005, 2006, 2007 or 2008 but in metro areas where home prices are still far below
their bubble peaks, I think more than half probably are.
Home prices are still 17.4 percent below
their bubble peak in April 2006, but every state logged an annual increase in September.
The study, released this month, measured the median price of homes in towns relative to prices in other beach towns, as well as the home prices that weren't too close to their housing -
bubble peaks.