Not exact matches
And this point dovetails with the other point as far as since we don't pretend to know the precise timing of when
bubbles kind of unwind or when the busts will finally
reach a
bottom, the idea is that we can actually be in the right quartile of activity, in other words I never try to catch the very top of a
bubble, I don't try to ride things to the very end, and similarly I don't mind catching falling knifes.
There is very good evidence based on long - term Q ratio, smoothed PE, price regressions, and mkt cap / GNP metrics that the market just
reached FAIR VALUE in March of 2009, and that stocks have essentially been in
bubble territory since 1994, with the exception of the few months near the
bottom of the 08/09 bear.
Then Broad goes on to remark that the art
bubble is deflating but that doesn't mean it has
reached a
bottom.
An analogy: imagine observing a pan of boiling water and trying to predict when and where a
bubble will form on the
bottom of the water, how long it will take to
reach the surface and how large it will be when it bursts.