Sentences with phrase «budget economic forecasts»

Currently the fall Update and the Budget economic forecasts are based on the average growth, inflation, interest rates and unemployment rate forecasts of a select group of private sector economic forecasters.

Table 1 compares the June 2011 Budget economic forecast for nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP), adjusted for prudence, to the November 2011 Update forecast.

Not exact matches

One of the first things I look for in any budget are the economic projections, particularly after Budget 2015 contained wildly optimistic oil price forebudget are the economic projections, particularly after Budget 2015 contained wildly optimistic oil price foreBudget 2015 contained wildly optimistic oil price forecasts.

Hopefully Budget 2016 will contain cautious and realistic economic forecasts for the next five years.

The economic forecasts in the budget will be a little less interesting this year as in late February the Department of Finance released a set of forecasts in their Canadian Economic Outlooeconomic forecasts in the budget will be a little less interesting this year as in late February the Department of Finance released a set of forecasts in their Canadian Economic OutlooEconomic Outlook (CEO).

Despite the fact that economic growth for this year is now forecast to be substantially lower than that expected at the time of the April Budget, Mr. Oliver is still confident that the federal government will record a surplus in 2015 - 16.

As we have argued before (Time to Make the Budget Planning Process More Accountable, Transparent and Prudent — November 2010 www.3dpolicy.ca), we would strongly recommend that you use the Department of Finance's economic forecast rather than average of private sector forecasts, arguing that the Department's economic forecasts provide the most accurate basis for budget forecaBudget Planning Process More Accountable, Transparent and Prudent — November 2010 www.3dpolicy.ca), we would strongly recommend that you use the Department of Finance's economic forecast rather than average of private sector forecasts, arguing that the Department's economic forecasts provide the most accurate basis for budget forecabudget forecasting.

This forecast was reduced by $ 1.3 billion to a deficit of $ 31.0 billion in the November 2011 Update of Economic and Fiscal Projections and by a further $ 6.1 billion to a deficit of $ 24.9 billion in the March 2012 Budget.

Unfortunately, budget forecasts do not provide a breakdown of the various components of nominal GDP, such as wages and salaries, corporate profits, interest income, etc., so it is difficult to properly assess the impact of changes in the economic forecast to changes in the major components of budgetary revenues.

The PBO questioned the extent of the upward revisions to the March 2012 Budget deficit forecasts, given the projected downward revisions to the economic forecast.

The economic forecast was cautious and there is room in the budget for things to slide a bit.

These include publishing: • Historical estimates and medium - term projections of the economy's potential GDP, as well as the methodology and assumptions used; • Medium - term projections of the Government's structural, or cyclically - adjusted budget balance as well as the methodology and assumptions used; • The assumptions, projections and methods to translate the private sector economic forecasts into its fiscal forecasts; and • The fiscal sustainability analyses of the provincial - territorial government sector that it prepared.

A strengthened and more independent Parliamentary Budget Office would promote greater understanding of complex budget issues; it would force the government to defend its economic and budget forecasts; it would promote a straightforward and more understandable and open budget process; it would promote accountability by commenting on the government's projections and analysis; finally, by being nonpartisan, it would provide research to all political paBudget Office would promote greater understanding of complex budget issues; it would force the government to defend its economic and budget forecasts; it would promote a straightforward and more understandable and open budget process; it would promote accountability by commenting on the government's projections and analysis; finally, by being nonpartisan, it would provide research to all political pabudget issues; it would force the government to defend its economic and budget forecasts; it would promote a straightforward and more understandable and open budget process; it would promote accountability by commenting on the government's projections and analysis; finally, by being nonpartisan, it would provide research to all political pabudget forecasts; it would promote a straightforward and more understandable and open budget process; it would promote accountability by commenting on the government's projections and analysis; finally, by being nonpartisan, it would provide research to all political pabudget process; it would promote accountability by commenting on the government's projections and analysis; finally, by being nonpartisan, it would provide research to all political parties.

The Update incorporates the October average private sector economic forecasts and an increased «adjustment for risk» for 2011 - 12 to 2013 - 14, as well as an increase in employment insurance rates of only 5 cents (employee rate) for 2012, rather than the 10 cents set in legislation As a result, the balanced budget target is delayed from 2014 - 15 to 2016 - 17, prior to the inclusion of the Targeted Strategic and Operating Review Savings (now called «Deficit Reduction Action Plan Saving Target»).

Table 1 compares the November 2012 Update economic forecast for nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP)-- the applicable base for budgetary revenues - to the March 2012 Budget forecast.

Prior to 2006, the Main Estimates were primarily based on an up to date economic and fiscal forecast, as provided in the budget.

Taking into account recent private sector forecasts for economic growth for 2015, would, in fact, eliminate the $ 1.4 billion budget surplus, as well as the $ 1 billion Contingency Reserve.

As part of the changes to the budgetary process in 1994, four private sector forecasting organizations [2] develop detailed fiscal projections on a National Accounts basis, based on the average of the private sector economic forecasts and the tax and spending policies in place at the time of the last budget for the next five years.

The Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) also uses the average of the private sector economic forecasts for their fiscal updates.

Contingency reserves and economic prudence reserves were included in the budget forecasts to ensure that the deficit target would never be missed.

A better understanding of the budgetary revenue forecast would be achieved if the Minister of Finance provided more details on the economic forecast in his budgets and fiscal updates.

Budget 2013 continues to use the average of the private sector economic forecasts for budget planning purBudget 2013 continues to use the average of the private sector economic forecasts for budget planning purbudget planning purposes.

The provision would automatically reduce the income and corporate rates by one - tenth of one percent whenever the November economic forecast projects a sufficient state budget surplus.

However, the slower - than - expected economic growth in 2013 and the accompanying lower level of nominal income in 2013 - 14 results in a «status quo» (before budget actions) deficit of $ 18.7 billion Subsequently, the status quo budgetary balance is actually lower that forecast in the November 2012 November Update.

Since 1995, budget planning has been based on the average of the private sector economic forecasts for a few selective major aggregate.

Given the timing for the release of these alternative budgets, we would have expected their economic and fiscal forecasts would have been updated to reflect current economic developments.

One, additional prudence could have been built into the April 2015 Budget for 2015 - 16, with the result that the fiscal projections for 2015 - 16 were not reflective of the economic forecast at that time.

The Government has continued the practice, first adopted by the Liberals in 1996, of using the average of the private sector economic forecasts for budget and fall update planning purposes.

This further supports our claim that the April Budget was not reflective of the economic forecasts at that time and that the Budget included additional prudence.

On balance, we do not believe that the November 2012 Update fiscal forecast was credible and coupled with the slowdown in economic growth in 2013, the possibility of a balanced budget for 2015 - 16 is seriously at risk, unless additional significant restraint measures are implemented.

Since the April Budget, private sector forecasters have revised down their forecasts of economic growth by about one percentage point.

Details on the economic forecasts should be provided in the budgets and updates.

A strengthened (more resources), and more independent (report to Parliament) PBO would promote greater understanding of complex budget issues; it would strengthen credibility by encouraging simplification and forcing the government to defend its economic and budget forecasts; it would improve the budget process by promoting a straightforward and more understandable and open process; it would promote accountability by commenting on the government's projections and analysis; finally, by being nonpartisan it would provide analysis and research to all political parties.

We have strongly recommended in the past that the Government use the Department of Finance's economic forecast rather than the average of the private sector economic forecasts (see «Time to Make the Budget Planning Process More Accountable, Transparent and Prudent» November 2010: www.3dpolicy.ca).

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its Budget and Economic Outlook today, showing their budget and economic forecasts throughBudget Office (CBO) released its Budget and Economic Outlook today, showing their budget and economic forecasts throughBudget and Economic Outlook today, showing their budget and economic forecasts throuEconomic Outlook today, showing their budget and economic forecasts throughbudget and economic forecasts throueconomic forecasts through 2025.

The Parliamentary Budget Officer and 3dpolicy have argued that the various components of nominal GDP should also be published in order that a proper assessment of the economic forecast can be made.

British Columbia is in good economic health, however the Board of Trade notes in this Budget an optimism in government's revenue forecasts (e.g. natural gas royalty revenue up 57.9 % in 2018 - 19).

In his November 2012 Economic and Fiscal Update, Mr. Flaherty forecast that the deficit would not be eliminated until 2016 - 17, one year later than forecast in his March 2012 Budget.

We would still recommend that you provide more detail on the components of both the economic and budget forecast, to allow for independent review and analysis.

In the 2012 Budget, the Minister of Finance revised down the deficit forecast for 2011 - 12, from $ 31.0 billion in the November 2011 Economic and Fiscal Update to $ 24.9 billion, of which $ 3 billion was due to the elimination of the «adjustment for risk to revenues».

Third, because of the uncertain economic outlook, you are right to include a contingency reserve in your budget - planning forecast.

As a result, the budget surplus for 2015 - 16 was not reflective of the economic forecast at that time.

First, prior to the start of an election, the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) should prepare a five - year economic and fiscal forecast.

The previous government had also published revised economic forecasts in advance of the budget.

The average of the private sector forecasts forms the basis for the economic assumptions used for fiscal planning purposes in the budget and fall update.

The federal government continues to use the average private sector economic forecast for budget purposes.

To be relevant, this should be the most current Budget economic and fiscal forecast for the upcoming fiscal year.

We have not included the April 2015 Budget / Parliamentary Budget Officer's forecasts of the surplus over the next four years, given the uncertainties with respect to the current economic environment.

An average of private sector economic forecasts for a number of selected economic variables was used for budget planning purposes rather than the Department of Finance's economic forecast.

We have consistently argued that the Government should use the Department of Finance's economic projections for budget planning and not the average of the private sector economic forecasts.