Sentences with phrase «bull cycle in»

There were cyclical bear markets in 1977 and 1981 - 2 (both ~ 20 % drops in senior indexes), and in 1994 (DJI / SPX fell less than 10 %, but small caps were down 25 % + after the huge small cap bull cycle in 1991 - 3) and 1998 (over 20 % drop in SP in 4 months, with LTCM failure the final chord).

The valuation levels embed significant assumptions for growth in rents, which is particularly dangerous when the bull cycle in commercial real estate is so extended.

Not exact matches

This means that this time consumers in countries such as India, Indonesia and Malaysia are fully exposed to rising crude prices, something that hasn't been in the case in previous bull cycles.

If current levels were to turn out, in hindsight, to be the final lows of this decline, I suspect that the overall return over the next cycle (by the time we do observe a full 20 % loss) will be as tame as we've seen since the bull market started in 2003.

While we seek to outperform during all parts of the market cycle, our historical experience suggests that our strategy may lag during broad - based bull markets, such as was seen in 2017.

When there's a bull market or the economy is in the expansion phase of the business cycle, there are plenty of other investments.

Though our investment horizon of interest is a complete market cycle, we don't generally think in terms of bull and bear markets, because they can only be determined in hindsight.

While there's a great deal of variation across individual market cycles, that's roughly the historical average for a 5.25 year market cycle: a 135 % gain, a 30 % loss, and a 65 % full - cycle return (about 10 % compounded annually, with the full - cycle return coming in at less than half of the bull market gain).

Considering that the stock market has already been rallying for five years since the lows of 2009, it is very possible the bull market has already run its course (every stock market runs in cycles).

We're always open to evidence that would change our analysis of very long - term growth prospects for the U.S. economy, but that evidence evolves slowly enough that we could easily see another complete bull - bear cycle in the interim.

This instance may be different in the near term, but a century of evidence argues that the completion of the market cycle will wipe out the majority of the gains observed in the advancing portion to - date (even without valuations similar to the present, the average, run - of - the - mill bear market decline has erased more than half of the market gains from the preceding bull market advance).

And so the emotional pressure that pulls stock market prices down to insanely low levels at the end of every bull / bear cycle remains in place today.

As we saw in multiple early selloffs and recoveries near the 2007, 2000, and 1929 bull market peaks (the only peaks that rival the present one), the «buy the dip» mentality can introduce periodic recovery attempts even in markets that are quite precarious from a full cycle perspective.

Every secular bear cycle prior to our current one followed a secular bull that ended with P / E in or near the red zone.

Based purely on long - term cycles, a successful argument could be made that we have been in a secular commodity bull market since the turn of the century in 2000.

From the results, we can see that even after 38 years of consistent saving, you'll only have around $ 1,000,000 to $ 5,000,000 in your 401k in a realistic cycle of bull and bear markets.

I created the above chart of IPOs for 1990 - 2016 using Univerisity of Florida's Jay R. Ritter's data, Prof. Ritter uses a tight definition of IPOs which I believe is more helpful for getting a sense of where we are in the current bull cycle by excluding some noise, «follow - on offerings, oil & gas partnerships or unit trusts, ADRs (9 offerings), REITs», etc..

Similarly, I expect that in the event of a general bull market in stocks, the fund will not shine so brightly in terms of relative performance., The math of investing would favour the fund, however, over several bull and bear market cycles because, on a percentage basis, lost dollars are simply harder to replace than gained dollars are to lose.

Be mindful that a shift in market internals doesn't necessarily mean that the entire cycle has changed from bull to bear or vice versa, so we always have to allow for shifts.

In other words, if we experience a modest bear - market cycle this year within the longer bull market he wouldn't be surprised.

When it comes down to it, these «cycles» in the stock market (often referred to as «Bear» and «Bull» Markets) are driven by three factors: Innovation, Speculation and Manipulation.

In the next post of this series, we will show the actual outperformance of the S&P SmallCap 600 versus the Russell 2000 over the long term, the higher returns and lower risk over different time periods, and through different bull and bear market cycles.

That's fine in the bull phase of the cycle, but it can spell trouble in the bear phase, when cash flow might go negative and skilled claims adjusters are hard to find.

I continue to act as a nervous bull in this environment, making money where I can, and realizing that over a full cycle, my risk control disciplines will protect me in relative, but not absolute terms.

Why else are credit cycles long and benign in the bull phase, and short and sharp in the bear phase?

The spread tightening in the bull phase of the cycle is initially relatively rapid, and gives way to smaller bits of incremental tightening, until it is too much, or an exogenous force acts on it.

However, we also believe that market volatility could remain heightened throughout the year due to the increased risk of a trade war with China, uncertainty around the approaching mid-term elections, the potential for increased regulation of large technology companies, and increased investor wariness of market valuations in the midst of the elongated bull market cycle.

As 2017 comes to a close a long secular bull cycle for risk is firmly entrenched, but it may be interrupted in 2018 by a healthy cyclical correction.

But by having a better understanding of the bull - bear cycle and taking a few minutes to prepare your portfolio ahead of time, you'll likely come through the bear in better shape and be ready to capitalize on the ensuing bull.

Historically this particular bull - bear cycle lasts about 4 years, with 25 % (or 1 year) of that time spent in active bear conditions.

For investors seeking long - term investment returns in value - focused stocks over the complete investment cycle (bull and bear markets combined), with added emphasis on reducing exposure to general market fluctuations in conditions viewed by the Advisor as unfavorable to stocks.

For investors seeking long - term investment returns in the U.S. equity market over the complete investment cycle (bull and bear markets combined), with added emphasis on reducing exposure to general market fluctuations in conditions viewed by the Advisor as unfavorable to stocks.

As I mentioned earlier, the median price - earnings ratios (P / E) and price - sales ratios (P / S) actually surmounted the peaks at the end of the last two bull market cycles — the metrics went beyond the valuation peaks hit in 2000 and in 2007.

They often get you out of the market during bear markets and get you back in to ride the next bull cycle.

Our hedging approach is intended to be applied over a complete market cycle - generally several years, but in any event comprising a complete bull and bear market.

A decade of extreme bull and bear cycles, the 1960s was an exciting time to be in the industry.

Likewise, if you don't intend to hold the Strategic Growth Fund over the course of a complete bull - bear market cycle, you should not invest in the Fund, because we have no firm expectation that the Fund will outperform the market over smaller segments of the market cycle.

To earn this distinction, the Fund had to outperform its peers in both bull and bear market cycles since 2000.

Now, as the relentless bull market has continued to set new all - time record highs, the negative sentiment cycle has slowly shifted in the other direction.

The potential for capital gains during bull market cycles is astounding however keep in mind that those capital gains can turn into capital losses during bear market cycles like we saw during the 2007 - 2008 financial crisis.

I noted back in 2007, during a similar period of frustration, that less than half of the typical bull market gain is retained by the end of the subsequent bear market - «Once stocks become richly valued, the remaining gains achieved by the market are almost always purely speculative - they are generally erased over the remaining course of the market cycle.

Since the S&P SmallCap 600 was launched in 1994, there are five bear and bull market cycles (as defined by peak to trough and trough to peak periods of the S&P 500) to analyze, and the S&P SmallCap 600 outperformed the Russell 2000 in four of those cycles.

Here's a look at the technical definition of the term, the role of bull markets in long - term market cycles, and how beginning investors can use this knowledge when devising an investment strategy.

Works great in a bull cycle, and lousy in a bear cycle.

My conclusion regarding the latter, perhaps delusional, is that my underperformance is structural in nature, due in large part to the fact that we are in the middle of an artificially protracted cycle, a bull market that is being kept alive by a fiscal respirator.

A frequent speaker at precious metals conferences and in the financial media, he is one of the handful of experts who have succeeded through multiple bull and bear cycles on the strength and skills honed during the dramatic fluctuations of the 1980s.

We are now in one of the longest bull market cycles of our lifetime.

My recommendations at this point in the bull portion of the bull - bear cycle is twofold.

Low Quality's Round Trip Bad News Bulls Stock Performance Following the Recognition of Recession The Beginning of the Middle Experimenting with the Market's Median Valuation Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Expected Misery Index Consumer Spending Break - Down Recessions and the Duration of Bad News Price - to - Sales Ratio May Prove Valuable International Markets Show Important Divergences Fixed Investment and the Technology Rally Global Yield Curves, Earnings Growth, and Sector Returns Recessions and Stock Prices Adjusting P / E Ratios for the Market Cycle Private Equity and Market Valuation Must Stocks Rise Following a Cut in the Fed Funds Rate?

Thinking of it this way aids daily trading, and allows for clever trading in bear market rallies, and bull market pullbacks, while still watching the overall macroeconomic credit cycle.