The so - called S&P 500 fear index finished last week at 10.82, about 40 % below
its bull market average, and briefly fell below 10 on Monday.
Not exact matches
In general, so - called value stocks — often defined as those trading at earnings multiples below the
market average or their own historical norms — have tricked a lot of investors in the most recent phase of the current
bull market, which has worn on nearly seven and a half years.
Bull markets, likewise, have a finite life — about 4 1/2 years on
average.
The multiple reached its peak for this
bull market at 23.4, well above the five - year
average of 18, and has since retreated below 20.
Moving
averages work really well in a
bull market, but not so much when conditions turn sour.
Bar 7 - Two legged pullback in a
bull move, opening reversal up from moving
average second entry buy, but big outside up bar at top of 6 bar tight trading range, limit order
market, sellers scaling in above, buyers below, both scalping.
In
bull markets, the 50 - day moving
average is our pivotal «line in the sand.»
World growth will remain low on
average but negative in the UK and Europe; price inflation will remain sufficiently subdued for a while longer so as to impose no constraint on monetary expansion; central banks will sustain a regime of negative real interest rates and rapid monetary expansion; the risk of a eurozone collapse is off the table for now; finally, stock
markets should continue to perform better than expected, even though the four - year old cyclical
bull market is long by historical standards.
Silver's annual
average in the final year of the 1970s
bull market was $ 21.79.
Its 2011
average — the peak of the
bull market that began in 2001 — was $ 35.11.
The Schwab Center for Financial Research looked at both
bull and bear
markets in the S&P 500 going back to the late»60s and found that the
average bull ran for more than four years, delivering an
average return of nearly 140 %.
It performs above
average relative to its category in
bull markets and in bear
markets Recently, in the month of December 2017, PESPX returned 0.1 percent.
Even measured against this
bull market's impressive results, technology stocks have been excellent investments, outpacing the 19.4 percent annualized return of Standard and Poor's 500 - stock index by four percentage points per year, on
average, since...
«During the latter stage of the
bull market culminating in 1929, the public acquired a completely different attitude towards the investment merits of common stocks... Why did the investing public turn its attention from dividends, from asset values, and from
average earnings to transfer it almost exclusively to the earnings trend, i.e. to the changes in earnings expected in the future?
The favorable
market performance associated with many historical economic expansions is fully accounted for by 1) favorable post-recession valuations, with the S&P 500
averaging less than 9 times prior peak earnings at the recession low, expanding to just over 11 times peak earnings in the first year of the
bull market, and 2) favorable trend uniformity, which typically emerges almost immediately in the form of a powerful breadth thrust off of a bear
market low, and is confirmed within a few weeks by much broader trend uniformity.
We agree with the
bulls and believe that even if Best Buy loses
market share, it can use excess capital to repurchase shares, which would allow the company to achieve above -
average per - share earnings growth.
While there's a great deal of variation across individual
market cycles, that's roughly the historical
average for a 5.25 year
market cycle: a 135 % gain, a 30 % loss, and a 65 % full - cycle return (about 10 % compounded annually, with the full - cycle return coming in at less than half of the
bull market gain).
The only true test of a money manager's ability is if he can obtain above -
average results over a full cycle that includes both
bull and bear
markets.
Historically,
bull market advances have
averaged 3.75 years, during which time stocks rise at an
average rate of 28 % annualized.
After the third longest
bull market advance on record, fresh deterioration in key trend - following components within our measures of
market internals (see Support Drops Away) recently joined this extended, overvalued, overbought, overbullish peak, even as the S&P 500 hovers at the top of its monthly Bollinger bands (two standard deviations above the 20 - period
average) and cyclical momentum rolls over from a 9 - year high.
Since then, the main stock
market indexes have indeed been under control of the
bulls, and all the major indices are now trading above their respective 20 and 50 - day moving
averages -LSB-...]
For another example, downward corrections in
bull markets tend to end slightly below the 200 - day moving
average.
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for
market losses, particularly given that the current
bull market has now outlived the median and
average bull, yet at higher valuations than most
bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other
market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
During this secular
bull market - a term that denotes a
bull market lasting many years - the Dow Jones Industrial
Average (DJIA)
averaged 16.8 % annual returns.
When Nixon went off the gold standard in 1971, an ounce of gold would have cost $ 35 USD, nine years later gold printed its
bull market high of $ 850 USD / oz, though the
average price of $ 459 / oz from 1979 would be a better gauge of how high gold went during the
bull market of the 1970's.
Over the first six weeks of the year, the Dow Jones Industrial
Average declined 10 %, as the prospect of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, a slump in oil prices, and concerns about economic conditions in Europe and China caused the long - running
bull market to stumble.
Whether in
bull or bear
markets, reallocating assets from the better - performing asset class to the worse - performing ones feels counterintuitive to the
average investor.
This instance may be different in the near term, but a century of evidence argues that the completion of the
market cycle will wipe out the majority of the gains observed in the advancing portion to - date (even without valuations similar to the present, the
average, run - of - the - mill bear
market decline has erased more than half of the
market gains from the preceding
bull market advance).
FANG stocks have led the
market higher throughout most of the nine - year
bull market, so it's not surprising the Dow Jones Industrial
Average tumbled more than 330 points (1.3 percent) on Monday, while the S&P 500 fell about 42 points (1.5 percent).
The
average length of the last 13
bull markets was about 1,500 days, making the current phase two - times longer than
average.2 However, the
market has a long way to go to extend past the longest
bull market on record that started in 1987 and ended in 2000, lasting nearly 4,500 days.
Secular
bull markets are extended periods that cumulatively deliver above -
average returns.
The point I think that's important is that, approximately,
bull market returns tend to be two - X the
average because the
average is made up of the positives and the negatives and the
bull market is mostly an extended period of excessive positives.
You know, that long - term history we're talking about earlier of stocks is made up of that
bull market part that's kind of two - X the long - term
average, and then all that negative that goes with it, and the blessedness that comes from owning stocks in the long - term includes all that volatility.
We think 2018 will add another year to this longer - than -
average bull market, but we believe we are moving to the third period of this cycle.
And once you're in a
bull market and you recognize you're in a
bull market, unless you can actually identify the
bull market ending, the normal thing would be to see returns that are markedly above the
average.
It began in March 2009, and at 5.75 years of age, it is longer than the 3.8 - year
average bull market duration of the past 80 years.
We defined the
bull market as price > 200 - Day simple moving
average.
Since the start of the current
bull market in early 2009, the
average quarter has had a beat rate of 62 %.
Generally speaking, stocks have been in a staircase - like uptrend for most of the more than 9 - year
bull rally, so this general theory suggests that moving
averages may be particularly powerful tools in the current
market environment — if the
market is indeed trending.
An
average cyclical
bull market will last 4 to 5 years.
To investigate, we compare SACEMS monthly performance statistics when the S&P 500 Index at the previous monthly close is above (
bull market) or below (bear
market) its 10 - month simple moving
average.
The Dow's P / E has
averaged 16 during the past three years, in the middle of the range during secular
bull markets.
The 20th century saw three secular
bull markets: The first lasted from 1921 to 1929, when the Dow Jones Industrial
Average gained 367 percent.
The
average secular
bull market lasted 21.2 years and produced a total return of 17.2 percent in nominal terms and 15.9 percent in real terms.
In the post-war period, the
average US equity
bull market has lasted approximately 64 months, and generated a gain of 163 %.
The North Bay real estate
market is currently experiencing a
bull market, with
average housing prices increasing from $ 232,534 in November 2015 to $ 233,933 in November 2016, a 3.5 % year - to - date increase.
We are getting close to retracing the recent sell off and my simple moving
averages will keep me on the right side of the
market... however remember... this is one of the oldest
bull markets... there are issues all over the world from Europe to Asia....
Since 1926, the
average bull market has lasted nine years and delivered a total return (dividends included) of 480 %, per First Trust Portfolios LP.
Tags: Allied Chemical, American Can, American Smelting, American Sugar, American Tobacco B, Anaconda Wire and Cable, AT&T, Atlantic Refining, Bear
Market Rallies, Bethlehem Steel,
Bull Markets, Coca - Cola, Curtis - Wright, Dow, Dow Jones Industrial
Average, Dupont, Eastman Kodak, False Starts, General Electric, General Foods, General Motors, IBM, International Business Machines, International Harvester, International Nickel, JC Penny, July 8 1932, National Cashregister, North American, Paramount Publix, Radio Corporation, RCA, Sears Roebuck, Standard Oil (NJ), Texas Corporation, Union Carbide, US Steel, Westinghouse Electric, Woolworth
My suggestion for using a moving
average system was inspried in part by Mebane Faber's The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear
Markets and also by Tom Lydon, author of The ETF Trend Following Playbook: Profiting from Trends in
Bull or Bear
Markets with Exchange Traded Funds.