Not exact matches
If current levels were to turn out, in hindsight, to be the final lows of this decline, I suspect that the overall return over the next
cycle (by the time we do observe a full 20 % loss) will be
as tame
as we've seen since the
bull market started in 2003.
While we seek to outperform during all parts of the
market cycle, our historical experience suggests that our strategy may lag during broad - based
bull markets, such
as was seen in 2017.
As we saw in multiple early selloffs and recoveries near the 2007, 2000, and 1929
bull market peaks (the only peaks that rival the present one), the «buy the dip» mentality can introduce periodic recovery attempts even in
markets that are quite precarious from a full
cycle perspective.
When it comes down to it, these «
cycles» in the stock
market (often referred to
as «Bear» and «
Bull»
Markets) are driven by three factors: Innovation, Speculation and Manipulation.
For investors seeking long - term investment returns in value - focused stocks over the complete investment
cycle (
bull and bear
markets combined), with added emphasis on reducing exposure to general
market fluctuations in conditions viewed by the Advisor
as unfavorable to stocks.
For investors seeking long - term investment returns in the U.S. equity
market over the complete investment
cycle (
bull and bear
markets combined), with added emphasis on reducing exposure to general
market fluctuations in conditions viewed by the Advisor
as unfavorable to stocks.
As I mentioned earlier, the median price - earnings ratios (P / E) and price - sales ratios (P / S) actually surmounted the peaks at the end of the last two
bull market cycles — the metrics went beyond the valuation peaks hit in 2000 and in 2007.
As a
market veteran, I pay very close attention to two things when I try to spot the end of a
bull market cycle.
Now,
as the relentless
bull market has continued to set new all - time record highs, the negative sentiment
cycle has slowly shifted in the other direction.
As with every other security there are
bull market cycles and there are bear
market cycles.
Since the S&P SmallCap 600 was launched in 1994, there are five bear and
bull market cycles (
as defined by peak to trough and trough to peak periods of the S&P 500) to analyze, and the S&P SmallCap 600 outperformed the Russell 2000 in four of those
cycles.
Trend following,
as I have discussed vehemently during my presentations with the STA and MTA, has to be judged over a full economic
cycle (or a
bull - bear
market cycle, if you wish).
The fund's goal is to beat the
market over a full
market cycle,
as the benefits of losing less in bad times outweigh the underperformance in a
bull market.
As you can see, except for the secular
bull market of 1921 - 1929, secular
market cycles last on average 16 to 20 years!
Under his leadership, Heartland's Value Fund has been noted by Forbes
as having «done well... in both bear and
bull markets over two
market cycles.»