Usually a strong
bull market follows a recession, he says, but that hasn't been the case this time around.
Bull markets follow a similar evolution.
You would have to think this secular bear market would be extremely severe with the combination of a major
bull market followed by a financial mania.
To see why, let's turn back the clock five years to the autumn of 2007, when investors were enjoying a full - on
bull market following the tech wreck of the early 2000s.
A cyclical
bull market followed the low returns of 1933, and secular bull markets followed the low returns of the early 1940's and early 1980's.
Having already suffered twice in the past 16 years through the now - familiar pattern of Fed - induced
bull market followed by a bruising bear market, many are loathe to repeat the «bruising» part a third time.
Once that belief catches on,
bull markets follow.
Not exact matches
If the current
market would
follow the 1990s
bull that ended with the dot - com bubble burst, that would push the S&P 500 to 5,300 by the end of 2020, or more than double the current level, he said.
It's a risky strategy, but one that many less - experienced and less - educated investors have adopted — both during the epic
bull market seen earlier this year and in recent months
following its equally amazing collapse.
Despite a flight to shiny metals, a bear
market in stocks does not make a
bull market in gold, said a widely -
followed market timer.
The whole way through the secular
bull market a long streak of no 2 % down days was
followed by a decline once one happened.
It then began to uptrend strongly,
following the widespread
bull market.
The long history of the
market shows that unusually long
bull markets tend to be
followed by deeper pullbacks.
In addition, all of this happened
following the nine - year anniversary of the
bull market, which began on March 9, 2009, and 10 years after the bailout of Bear Stearns.
The
following article will attempt to argue why younger investors should focus on growth stocks over dividend stocks in a
bull market with potentially rising interest rates.
The
market formed a double - bottom in the first half of 1970 and proceeded to resume its
bull run with higher - lows in the months
following.
How Angels Think — OK, let me start by saying that I rarely do angel investing since I mostly think it's a sucker's bet unless you have very deep pockets or unless you're in a tech
bull market -LRB-» 97 — 00,» 05 -» 08) where exits can happen without a lot of
follow - on rounds of funding.
After the third longest
bull market advance on record, fresh deterioration in key trend -
following components within our measures of
market internals (see Support Drops Away) recently joined this extended, overvalued, overbought, overbullish peak, even as the S&P 500 hovers at the top of its monthly Bollinger bands (two standard deviations above the 20 - period average) and cyclical momentum rolls over from a 9 - year high.
In 1987, for example, the break
following the August
bull market peak was largely recovered over the course of several weeks before failing rapidly in October.
Table 1 shows the years of each
bull - bear cycle, the length of the
bull and bear phase, and depth of the
following bear
market.
You can be a successful investor by being disciplined in
following a set of investment strategies and rules that guide you through
bull and bear
markets, times of greed and times of fear, and periods of high risk and periods of great opportunity.
A historical bear
market low came in 1942, which was
followed by a
bull market that lasted for 48 - months.
Historic
bull markets would
follow in their wake — as would epic crashes.
Therefore, it is likely that 2013 will see a
bull market top,
followed by a relatively short, likely sharp, bear
market.
Following an 18 - year
Bull market, and a three year Bear
market, we are now committed to what looks like a long - term military obligation in Iraq.
A protracted bear
market followed the 1982 - 2000
bull market.
It also rationalizes why Bear
markets tend to be sharper — and much shorter — than
Bulls: The Crash of «29 was
followed by 4 consecutive down years (a feat not matched since).
They
follow the big
bull markets with extended gaps in between, see the chart below.
The
following monthly chart shows that relative to a broad basket of commodities *, gold commenced a very long - term
bull market (47 years and counting) in the early - 1970s.
It is
bull markets that cause bear
markets (and the economic crises that inevitably
follow from them).
To me, its not that any given round number is cursed; Rather, its that periods
following long
Bull markets tend to be a sideways affair.
Stock
market bulls ran amok on Friday
following a better than expected jobs report.
Then they flocked to local stock
markets amid a historic
bull run —
followed by an inevitable meltdown — in 2015.
Secular
bull markets transition into secular bears, which are
followed by secular
bulls.
So, despite the rampant optimism evident in January - 2018, the decline that
followed the January peak probably will turn out to be a
bull -
market correction.
Next week will be important to see if
market bulls can close the deal with some upside
follow through.
Even if next year turns out to deliver a further
bull market gain of 20 %,
followed only then by a minimal 20 % bear
market decline, the return since late - 2002 would still be limited to 9 % annually.
Following Wednesday's poor performance,
bulls stepped back into the
market yesterday, carrying the major indices well into the black.
As Heath wrote: «Wednesday's
market turbulence comes amid near - record highs
following an eight - year
bull run fueled by strong earnings, especially in the technology sector.
The 1982 secular
bull market was preceded and
followed by secular bear
markets that featured lots of sharp rallies and sell offs, but netted investors nothing after more than a decade.
In other words, after the longest
bull market in history
followed by one of the worst decades for investment returns on record, we're in roughly the same position we started in.
We
follow our guidelines regardless of whether the
market has just sold off by 50 % or is in an 8 1/2 - year
bull market.
This edition of the classic text clearly describes Elliott Wave theory and applications, and includes the authors» latest forecasts, including their prediction of the great bear
market to
follow the past decade's
bull market.
I incorporated some principles of trend
following with entries and exits to control losses and maximize gains inside a retirement account, and help navigate bear
markets and
bull markets more carefully.
The three most recent sideways
markets, which
followed big
bull markets, started in 1937, 1966 and 2000.
Title: Trend
Following: How to Make a Fortune in
Bull, Bear, and Black Swan
Markets Author: Michael W. Covel Price: $ 25.97 Pages: 561
My suggestion for using a moving average system was inspried in part by Mebane Faber's The Ivy Portfolio: How to Invest Like the Top Endowments and Avoid Bear
Markets and also by Tom Lydon, author of The ETF Trend
Following Playbook: Profiting from Trends in
Bull or Bear
Markets with Exchange Traded Funds.
Few could take advantage of the
bull market that
followed the recession.
The 2007 - 2009 bear
market decline wiped out not only the
bull market advance that
followed the 2002 low, but the entire total return of the S&P 500, in excess of Treasury bills, all the way back to June 1995.
Historically, that puts the typical
bull market gain at about 152 % from trough - to - peak,
followed by a bear
market decline about 34 % from peak - to - trough, for a cumulative full - cycle total return of about 67 % (roughly 10.7 % annualized).