Historically, that puts the typical
bull market gain at about 152 % from trough - to - peak, followed by a bear market decline about 34 % from peak - to - trough, for a cumulative full - cycle total return of about 67 % (roughly 10.7 % annualized).
Not exact matches
At present, though, both the S&P Mid and Small Cap Adv - Dec Lines have reached new
bull market highs and are leading
gains in their respective price indexes.
While there's a great deal of variation across individual
market cycles, that's roughly the historical average for a 5.25 year
market cycle: a 135 %
gain, a 30 % loss, and a 65 % full - cycle return (about 10 % compounded annually, with the full - cycle return coming in
at less than half of the
bull market gain).
That's several years» worth of
bull market gains — but oil
at $ 50 would still leave many reserve owners with a stranded asset.
Nimble asset allocation should help to minimize your losses during bear
markets and maximize your
gains during
bull market —
at least in theory.
As the guys
at Nautilus Capital note, cyclical
bull markets within secular bears have tended to average just 26 months, with an average
gain of 85 %, while cyclical bears within secular bears have averaged 19 months, with steep average losses of -39 %.
If past
bull markets are any indication, we could be looking
at hundreds of percent in
gains over the next decade.
Due to the length of the
bull market, which has been big in
gains, all the U.S.
market averages currently are
at or near record highs, so the desire to know when the advance will end is even more acute.
During a
bull market, people look
at the 30 percent
gains they are seeing on their stock portfolios and...
But you wouldn't have bought most of those things
at the prices offered had you known that you were not going to be able to retain all of your
bull market gains.
Many of today's investors swear by it not because they have considered the theoretical arguments pro and con and been convinced by the pro case but because they made money during the
bull and attributed those
gains not to the fact that stocks were priced well early in the
bull market but to the fact that they were following a Buy - and - Hold strategy
at the time.