Not including the out - sized gains following the 1982 bottom, all of these first -
year bull markets gained between 29 and 44 percent.
If you divide the
percent bull market gain by the months of the duration of the bull market to get an average monthly return.
Do they not recall that the completion of a market cycle has typically wiped out more than half of the
preceding bull market gain?
That's several years» worth
of bull market gains — but oil at $ 50 would still leave many reserve owners with a stranded asset.
Historically, that puts the typical
bull market gain at about 152 % from trough - to - peak, followed by a bear market decline about 34 % from peak - to - trough, for a cumulative full - cycle total return of about 67 % (roughly 10.7 % annualized).
They have suffered all the declines of the 2007 to 2009 bear, with little of the
previous bull market gains to cushion their losses.
Even if next year turns out to deliver a
further bull market gain of 20 %, followed only then by a minimal 20 % bear market decline, the return since late - 2002 would still be limited to 9 % annually.
Investors who
view bull market gains as real gains are like consumers who take out large amounts of credit - card debt to enjoy a better life than they can afford with money earned from their jobs.
We gradually found ourselves back in a defensive stretch (see Critical Point in November 2007), which was followed by a market decline of more than 50 %, which erased the entire preceding
bull market gain in the S&P 500 index, and wiped out the entire total return of the index — in excess of Treasury bill returns — all the way back to June 1995.
I noted back in 2007, during a similar period of frustration, that less than half of the
typical bull market gain is retained by the end of the subsequent bear market - «Once stocks become richly valued, the remaining gains achieved by the market are almost always purely speculative - they are generally erased over the remaining course of the market cycle.
So we «knew» during the bull market that
the bull market gains were not real.
Like everybody else that writes about stock investing and wants to be liked by his or her readers, people who have made plans for their financial futures rooted in a belief that
bull market gains are real.
Bull market gains are free money, according to this model.
But you wouldn't have bought most of those things at the prices offered had you known that you were not going to be able to retain all of
your bull market gains.
I say that
bull market gains are phony.
The job of an investment advisor is not to flatter you by encouraging your belief that
your bull market gains are real.