Do they not recall that the completion of a market cycle has typically wiped out more than half of the preceding
bull market gain?
While there's a great deal of variation across individual market cycles, that's roughly the historical average for a 5.25 year market cycle: a 135 % gain, a 30 % loss, and a 65 % full - cycle return (about 10 % compounded annually, with the full - cycle return coming in at less than half of
the bull market gain).
They have suffered all the declines of the 2007 to 2009 bear, with little of the previous
bull market gains to cushion their losses.
Even if next year turns out to deliver a further
bull market gain of 20 %, followed only then by a minimal 20 % bear market decline, the return since late - 2002 would still be limited to 9 % annually.
That's several years» worth of
bull market gains — but oil at $ 50 would still leave many reserve owners with a stranded asset.
Historically, that puts the typical
bull market gain at about 152 % from trough - to - peak, followed by a bear market decline about 34 % from peak - to - trough, for a cumulative full - cycle total return of about 67 % (roughly 10.7 % annualized).
So we «knew» during the bull market that
the bull market gains were not real.
I noted back in 2007, during a similar period of frustration, that less than half of the typical
bull market gain is retained by the end of the subsequent bear market - «Once stocks become richly valued, the remaining gains achieved by the market are almost always purely speculative - they are generally erased over the remaining course of the market cycle.
Like everybody else that writes about stock investing and wants to be liked by his or her readers, people who have made plans for their financial futures rooted in a belief that
bull market gains are real.
Investors who view
bull market gains as real gains are like consumers who take out large amounts of credit - card debt to enjoy a better life than they can afford with money earned from their jobs.
Bull market gains are free money, according to this model.
Juicy Excerpt: No, you don't have to give back the things you bought with phony
bull market gains.
But you wouldn't have bought most of those things at the prices offered had you known that you were not going to be able to retain all of
your bull market gains.
We gradually found ourselves back in a defensive stretch (see Critical Point in November 2007), which was followed by a market decline of more than 50 %, which erased the entire preceding
bull market gain in the S&P 500 index, and wiped out the entire total return of the index — in excess of Treasury bill returns — all the way back to June 1995.
If you divide the percent
bull market gain by the months of the duration of the bull market to get an average monthly return.
I say that
bull market gains are phony.
Not exact matches
Signs are accumulating that, after 6 1/2 years and price
gains of more than 200 %, the
Bull Market has entered into the «Late Innings.»
The nearly decadelong
bull market in the U.S. is long in the tooth and there are better
gains to be had elsewhere, says one strategist.
And overall, though Subramanian expects more modest
gains in 2015, she says the
bull market is still in tact.
The wealth I've
gained is mostly through luck because I'm lucky to be alive during this
bull market time period.
Our fourth open position in the model trading account, PowerShares U.S. Dollar
Bull Index ($ UUP) long, is also showing an unrealized
gain, but has a low correlation to the direction of the equities
markets either way.
Total return, including income and capital
gains, for the most recent
bull market period, starting March 1, 2009, and continuing through December 31, 2017.
The way they calculate stock
market gains is complicated, and it's designed to turn a
bull market into a baby calf
market for your money.
Despite the huge
gains and nearly unprecedented duration of the current
bull market for stocks, there are few obvious signs that the rally is slowing down.
At present, though, both the S&P Mid and Small Cap Adv - Dec Lines have reached new
bull market highs and are leading
gains in their respective price indexes.
Any fool can make money in a
bull market, but bear
markets are where knowledge is
gained and future profits are carved.
The broad rally in cryptocurrencies continued throughout the weekend, and the tide of the
bull market lifted all ships this time, with all of the major coins registering
gains during the weekend, although definitely Bitcoin's push towards $ 10,000 made the most headlines.
For those interested you can support my work and sign up for the Private Blog as well as
gain access to... Continue reading Private Blog — Cryptos: New
Bull Market or Dead Cat Bounce?
Retail securities tend to track the
market as a whole but with a greater degree of volatility, resulting in stronger
gains during
bull markets but larger losses during bear
markets.
... to rising corporate profits, an ok economy, slow inflation and a reasonably quiet Fed and you get all the reasons to defer selling and booking your eight - year
bull market capital
gains, especially since TINA (there is no alternative) remains in everybody's mind.
I believe we're in the «legitimate uptrend» portion of a
bull market in stocks — the time when the big
gains are made... All the ingredients are in place for an incredible year in stocks...
This a high - risk investment that has the ability to produce huge
gains in a
bull market and huge losses in a bear.
The stock
market is considered to be in a
bull market once it has
gained 20 percent from a recent low point.
Quiet overnight in Asia as Japanese
markets were closed for a public holiday — China
gained 50bp as HIBOR fell — Aussie enters a
bull market, climbing almost 1 % as the Big Banks Rallied, while all of EM was in the red as the Greenback caught bid.
Now, a new day dawns and as the
bulls seek to make it five sessions in a row of rising stock prices, we find that the
markets were generally higher in Asia overnight, while the
gains are incremental thus far in London and on the Continent.
It is possible that VHDYX will add some capital
gains but it looks like we are almost done with the
bull market... so, we can discount this.
Anytime the largest member (bitcoin)
gains 30 % in value and still ends up being the weakest major performer, the crypto
bull market is not only off life support, it is alive and in recovery.
That is, it's true that silver has in the past achieved a greater percentage
gain than gold from
bull -
market start to
bull -
market end.
This instance may be different in the near term, but a century of evidence argues that the completion of the
market cycle will wipe out the majority of the
gains observed in the advancing portion to - date (even without valuations similar to the present, the average, run - of - the - mill bear
market decline has erased more than half of the
market gains from the preceding
bull market advance).
As you can see, Nevada's cannabis industry is in a long - term
bull market as more patients
gains access to cannabis.
The
bull market has wobbled a bit in March, as investor unease has risen in the face of unsettling developments in Ukraine and concerns about the prospect of higher interest rates in the U.S. Still, the major
market benchmarks managed to show modest
gains for the six - week period end March 25th.
One benefit of traditional «buy and hold» investing is the ability to fully participate in all upside
gains of
bull markets.
Now, to be fair, as Michael Sivy points out, it is precisely the large, bluechip stocks in the S&P 500 that have
gained the most in the
bull market's latest surge, which makes them vulnerable now.
The firm's global chief investment officer sees one last window in the nine - year - old
bull market for stocks to post major
gains.
The bulk of U.S. stock
gains in this long - running
bull market are due to one variable: the expansion of the price - to - earnings ratio.
Corrections are seen as entirely normal and even helpful in curbing excessive
gains during
bull markets.
The bottom line is that tightening US policy conditions may represent a headwind for a maturing US
bull market, while accommodative conditions outside of the United States could help a fledgling recovery
gain pace in other regions.
Despite lots of talk about the
bull market nearing its end and signals pointing to a correction in the near - term, stocks were up strongly in 2017 and have continued those
gains this year.
Similarly, I expect that in the event of a general
bull market in stocks, the fund will not shine so brightly in terms of relative performance., The math of investing would favour the fund, however, over several
bull and bear
market cycles because, on a percentage basis, lost dollars are simply harder to replace than
gained dollars are to lose.
Should financial
markets have a
bull market, the annuitant misses out on these additional
gains.