Basically, the information about measurable ship -
buoy bias had been published for years, and ERSST just had to do something about it.
You can try a scientific argument against the ship -
buoy bias, and people may listen, but this kind of argument has no substance.
the merged in situ data without bias adjustment can have a cool bias relative to data with no ship —
buoy bias.
Because ships tend to be biased warm relative to buoys and because of the increase in the number of buoys and the decrease in the number of ships, the merged in situ data without bias adjustment can have a cool bias relative to data with no ship —
buoy bias.
At present, methods for removing the ship —
buoy bias are being developed and tested.
Not exact matches
Buoys have increased global coverage of the oceans by up to 15 percent since the 1970s, but they have a known cold
bias compared to measurements taken from ships.
A recent paper by Hausfather et al found that NOAA's new SST version ERRSTv4 matched sea surface temperatures from
buoys (and satellites) quite well from 1997 until present, whereas HadSST3 had an apparent residual cooling
bias in the same period.
However, there have been teething problems with the Argo
buoys experiencing pressure sensor issues that impose a cooling
bias on the data.
Recall that in 2015, NOAA corrected a cooling
bias arising from the failure to account for the changing ship -
buoy mix in the ERSST data set.
And of course the new paper by Hausfather et al, that made quite a bit of news recently, documents how meticulously scientists work to eliminate
bias in sea surface temperature data, in this case arising from a changing proportion of ship versus
buoy observations.
For the calculated global warming it doesn't matter if you apply the correction to the ships or to the
buoys, and the fact that ship intakes are warmer than the environment is irrelevant because of the
bias correction and conversion to anomalies.
We get rid of the constant
bias in each type by looking at changes: both of them report the true answer of 0 C change (20.3 — 20.3 = 0 C for the ships and 20.1 — 20.1 = 0 C for the
buoys).
They go on to mention the modern
buoy problems and the continued need to work out
bias corrections for changing engine inlet data as well as minor issues related to the modern insulated buckets.
The relevant passage from Karl et al seems to be: «In essence, the
bias correction involved calculating the average difference between collocated
buoy and ship SSTs.
«However, compensation for a different potential source of
bias in SST data in the past decade the transition from ship to
buoy - derived SSTs, might increase the century - long trends by raising recent SSTs as much as 0.1 °C, as
buoy - derived SSTs are
biased cool relative to ship measurements»
Although I've not been able to find enough to get a broad view of the Arctic, and some data such as
Buoys suffers from an observational bias — more substantial floes of ice are chose for the placement of b
Buoys suffers from an observational
bias — more substantial floes of ice are chose for the placement of
buoysbuoys.
The increasing negative
bias due to the increase in
buoys tends to reduce this recent warm - ing.
This
bias must be corrected and it makes no difference to the trend if you either adjust the ship data down, or the
buoy data up, since the trends in both of those sets is the same.
The gridded field is produced from ship and
buoy sea surface temperatures in the ICOADS release 2.5 data set (29) using
bias correction and Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection methodologies as described in (13).
If the geographical distribution of
buoys an ships in cool and warm water changes, or the SST in general increases during the transition, then it could result in a minor
bias.
In addition to the ship SST
bias adjustment, the drifting and moored
buoy SSTs in ERSST.v4 are adjusted toward ship SSTs, which was not done in ERSST.v3b.
The progressive increase in the ratio of intrinsically warmer (ships) to intrinsically cooler (
buoys) measurements introduces a cooling
bias in the trend for the combined data.
A recent paper by Hausfather et al found that NOAA's new SST version ERRSTv4 matched sea surface temperatures from
buoys (and satellites) quite well from 1997 until present, whereas HadSST3 had an apparent residual cooling
bias in the same period.
Recall that in 2015, NOAA corrected a cooling
bias arising from the failure to account for the changing ship -
buoy mix in the ERSST data set.
The
bias is larger (∼ 4 K) in regions where the primar y source of data is
buoys, which contain warm
biases in winter owing to the insulation effect of snow covering the sensors.
Between 1995 and 2001, the trends in the unadjusted data lie at the lower end of the distribution of the trends in the adjusted series reflecting the rapid increase in the number of relatively - cold -
biased buoy observations in the record at that time.
«Major improvements include updated and substantially more complete input data from the ICOADS Release 2.5, revised Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections (EOTs) and EOT acceptance criterion, updated sea surface temperature (SST) quality control procedures, revised SST anomaly (SSTA) evaluation methods, revised low - frequency data filing in data sparse regions using nearby available observations, updated
bias adjustments of ship SSTs using Hadley Nighttime Marine Air Temperature version 2 (HadNMAT2), and
buoy SST
bias adjustments not previously made in v3b.»
The increasing negative
bias due to the increase in
buoys tends to reduce this recent warming.
On the other hand, we have been integrating
buoy measurements ~ slowly over the past couple decades, so that the
bias creeps in to full view only over time and disguises itself as a change in a longer term trend.
As
buoys become more important to the in situ record, that
bias can increase.
In essence, the
bias correction involved calculating the average difference between collocated
buoy and ship SSTs.
The assumption actually is that ships DO NOT have a warm
bias, whereas
buoys ACTUALLY have a negative
bias (not a RELATIVE negative
bias), resulting in real warming being understated as
buoys replace ship intakes.
The point (as I understand it) is that there is a
bias between the ships and
buoys.
Most satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST) also need
bias correction and there are subtle differences between ship and
buoy measurements of SST.
But instead they deny the importance of 28 million weather - balloons, call the missing heat a «travesty», they pretend that if you slap enough caveats on the 1990 report and ignore the actual direct quotes they made at the time, then possibly, just maybe, their models are doing OK, and through sheer bad luck 3000 ocean
buoys, millions of weather balloons, and 30 years of satellite records are all
biased in ways that hides the true genius of the climate models.
Of course it doesn't matter if the
bias adjustment is
buoy - to - ship or ship - to -
buoy: the average 0.12 °C adjustment is made either way and results in a simple translation of whichever line up or down by that 0.12 °C.
The weighting is one stage on from the simple translation up or down of
buoy or ship data for the
bias determination.
This was the whole point of the initial arguments in my comment - I was putting clear blue water between the
bias adjustment stage and the weighting stage so that we could see how the weighting leveraged the already upwardly adjusted
buoy data in each 2 ° x 2 ° monthly bin by 6.8.
Figure 1: How a transition from ship to
buoy measurements can
bias temperature trends.
They find that, with an enlarged data set that has corrections for
bias between drifting
buoy data and data taken from ship intakes, as well as extended corrections for water cooling in buckets in the time between being drawn from the sea and being measured, there is a statistically significant warming trend of 0.086 °C per decade over the 1998 - 2012 period.
The study did so in part by adjusting for «
biases» in the historic data; it pointed out, for example, that the thermometers affixed to modern
buoys have been shown to produce lower temperature readings than those carried by ships.
«For example, the gradual shift since the 1970s from (warm -
biased) ship - based measurements to (cold -
biased) drifting
buoys has probably led to a slight underestimate of SST warming, says Richard Reynolds of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina.»
While there is still an effect for changeover from insulated buckets to engine inlets after the 1970s, there is also evidence that the introduction of
buoys in this period results in an offsetting cold
bias.
The authors use a sea surface temperature data set that has been corrected for
biases in sea surface data that arise due to the difference in measurements from ships and
buoys, and the authors incorporate a much larger amount of data from land - based observations.
The Karl change of SST based on canvas and wood buckets and wide error bands vs
buoy thermocouples makes one cynical of the
bias and integrity of the CAGW crowd.
I'll also take a quick look at the growing effect of residual
biases from ship -
buoy measurement adjustments in sea surface temperature (SST) analyses in recent years, which has led to some additional divergence between the two major operational SST series underlying these four global series.
However, compensation for a different potential source of
bias in SST data in the past decade — the transition from ship - to
buoy - derived SSTs — might increase the century - long trends by raising recent SSTs as much as ~ 0.1 deg C, as
buoy - derived SSTs are
biased cool relative to ship measurements [10 — Worley et al 2005]