The Great Moderation turned out to be a boom - to -
bust bubble economy.
Not exact matches
[16:00] Pain + reflection = progress [16:30] Creating a meritocracy to draw the best out of everybody [18:30] How to raise your probability of being right [18:50] Why we are conditioned to need to be right [19:30] The neuroscience factor [19:50] The habitual and environmental factor [20:20] How to get to the other side [21:20] Great collective decision - making [21:50] The 5 things you need to be successful [21:55] Create audacious goals [22:15] Why you need problems [22:25] Diagnose the problems to determine the root causes [22:50] Determine the design for what you will do about the root causes [23:00] Decide to work with people who are strong where you are weak [23:15] Push through to results [23:20] The loop of success [24:15] Ray's new instinctual approach to failure [24:40] Tony's ritual after every event [25:30] The review that changed Ray's outlook on leadership [27:30] Creating new policies based on fairness and truth [28:00] What people are missing about Ray's culture [29:30] Creating meaningful work and meaningful relationships [30:15] The importance of radical honesty [30:50] Thoughtful disagreement [32:10] Why it was the relationships that changed Ray's life [33:10] Ray's biggest weakness and how he overcame it [34:30] The jungle metaphor [36:00] The dot collector — deciding what to listen to [40:15] The wanting of meritocratic decision - making [41:40] How to see
bubbles and
busts [42:40] Productivity [43:00] Where we are in the cycle [43:40] What the Fed will do [44:05] We are late in the long - term debt cycle [44:30] Long - term debt is going to be squeezing us [45:00] We have 2
economies [45:30] This year is very similar to 1937 [46:10] The top tenth of the top 1 % of wealth = bottom 90 % combined [46:25] How this creates populism [47:00] The
economy for the bottom 60 % isn't growing [48:20] If you look at averages, the country is in a bind [49:10] What are the overarching principles that bind us together?
Supply - side, deregulatory zeal has deprived the
economy of public good investments, innovative research, and the oversight necessary to prevent shampoo cycles (
bubble,
bust, repeat).
Previous tightening cycles — for instance, the mid-1980s energy
bust and the bursting dot - com
bubble in the late - 1990s — rolled through the
economy over five years or so.
To explain, I point out that if the Fed had done nothing in response to the
bust of 2000 - 2002 then there would have been a severe recession, but the
economy would probably have made a full recovery by 2004 and there would have been no mortgage - credit / housing - investment
bubble and therefore no 2007 - 2008 crisis.
As I return home to Canada, global
economies it seems are still picking up the pieces following the dotcom
bubble bust, 9/11, the great recession, the U.S. housing market collapse and the resulting credit crunch.
Whats gonna happen is that the small
bubble that's being created will
bust sometime next year and put a crack in the
economy once again in early or mid 2016 followed by the
economy of the world.