The acceleration within the CO2 rise and the rising SAT measured
by GISTEMP are both remarkably good for a linear fit over the period 1975 - to - date.
By GISTEMP, it's only 2 of the most recent 30 that miss out on the top 30.
At first I thought I could use the v2.inv file supplied
by GISTEMP, but the GHCN station identifiers for the contiguous US have changed (so that they're based on their USHCN station identifiers — probably a good thing).
By using night marine air temperatures to normalize all sea data Huang effectively transferred the tas tend to tos for ERSSTv4 (NOAA's ocean temp index used
by GISTEMP).
Figure 2 shows the number of station records available for each month in both the existing GHCN - Monthly data (used as the basis for reconstructions
by GISTemp / NCDC / CRUTEM) and the new Berkeley data.
The 1200 km range used
by GISTemp was determined emprically to give the best balance between correlation between stations and area of coverage.
Each 2º by 2º grid is approximately 200 x 200 km, much less than the 1200 km averaging radius used
by GISTemp.
For example, here are the stats on stations used
by GISTemp.
As explained in Part 1A and Part 1B, the 1200 km area weighting scheme used
by GISTemp is based on the known and observed phenomena of Teleconnection; that climates are connected over surprisingly long distances.
Not exact matches
The NASA results, calculated
by Goddard Institute for Space Studies are published monthly on the NASA / GISS website (
GISTEMP).
The 2015 temperatures continue a long - term warming trend, according to analyses
by scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York (
GISTEMP).
HadCRUT corrections
by Thompson 2008,
GISTEMP corrections
by Real Climate.
The high anomalies up in the Arctic continue for a third month in
GISTEMP and the question of the maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent is surely now only
by how much this freeze season will be below the record low set in 2017.
Taking a longer perspective, the 30 year mean trends aren't greatly affected
by a single year (
GISTEMP: 1978 - 2007 0.17 + / -0.04 ºC / dec; 1979 - 2008 0.16 + / -0.04 — OLS trends, annual data, 95 % CI, no correction for auto - correlation; identical for HadCRU); they are still solidly upwards.
# 10 Paul «One thing that seems potentially new and interesting from their results (and that I haven't seen many comments on) is the fact that their global record goes back about 50 more years than CRU and 80 more years than
GISTEMP by starting with the year 1800.
By coincidence, yesterday was also the scheduled update for the
GISTEMP July temperature release, and because July is usually the warmest month of the year on an absolute basis, a record in July usually means a record of absolute temperature too.
One of our Google Summer of Code students is working on making a faster and more user - friendly ccc -
gistemp; one of the others is working on a new homogenization codebase (with input from Matt Menne, Claude Williams, and Peter Thorne), and the third is working on a web - facing common - era temperature reconstruction system (mentored
by Julien Emile - Geay, Jason Smerdon, and Kevin Anchukaitis).
One thing that seems potentially new and interesting from their results (and that I haven't seen many comments on) is the fact that their global record goes back about 50 more years than CRU and 80 more years than
GISTEMP by starting with the year 1800.
The reluctance of
GISTEMP to follow HADCRUT and publish offsets for monthly data rather than just an offset for the annual data might be overcome
by publishing monthly offsets relative to the annual figure.
GISTEMP could make this explicit
by publishing the same information relative to zero rather than relative to 14.0 C.
In NOAA analysis, 2014 is a record
by about 0.04 ºC, while the difference in the
GISTEMP record was 0.02 ºC.
Thus there are now two surface temperature data sets with global coverage (the
GISTEMP data from NASA have always filled gaps
by interpolation).
NASA GISS has always filled the data gaps
by interpolation, albeit with a simpler method, and accordingly the
GISTEMP data show hardly a slowdown of warming.
Fig. 1 (b) shows that the anomaly between observations and the CMIP5 mean temperature response to cumulative emissions is halved
by repeating the Millar analysis with the
GISTEMP product instead of HadCRUT.
Plotting these temperatures as anomalies (
by removing the mean over a common baseline period)(red lines) reduces the spread, but it is still significant, and much larger than the spread between the observational products (
GISTEMP, HadCRUT4 / Cowtan & Way, and Berkeley Earth (blue lines)-RRB-:
The range is given
by the spread of values from ERA - Interim, JRA - 55,
GISTEMP, HadCRUT4, a version of HadCRUT4 infilled
by kriging from Cowtan and Way, and NOAAGlobalTemp, processed as discussed here, and discussed further below.
SORRY, Re my post above to Bob Tisdale The link I intended suggesting dodgy
GIStemp numbers was this: GISStimating 1998,
by Steve Goddard https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/29/gisstimating-1998/ See the video....
Posts at RealClimate (here) and at SkepticalScience (here) looked on the paper as the second coming of... errr... Hansen's
GISTEMP maybe, saying Cowtan and Way (2013) proved the UKMO HADCRUT4 data underreports
by half the warming of global surface temperatures since 1997.
The tool / website will promote the goals of the Climate Code Foundation
by providing an intuitive and informative interface exposing the
GISTEMP data at a level comprehensible and usable for anyone from lay persons with a vague interest in climate change to climate scientists.
However, the impact of coverage bias is pretty clear; it can be seen
by simply looking at a coverage and anomaly map as we did here, or
by assessment of coverage bias using
GISTEMP, or
by the less valid but independent assessment using UAH.
Let us therefore compare satellite data (UAH6.0) with surface data (
GISTEMP Land / Ocean) measured for the Southern Hemisphere (SH), from 1979 till 2015: You hopefully see like me a good correlation between the two, shown
by both linear estimates and 60 month running means.
This guest post is written
by Filipe Fernandes, one of our Google Summer of Code students, who is working on our ccc -
gistemp project.
GIStemp fabricates numbers
by repeated application of «the reference station method» where one site can change the history of another site from 1000 km to 1500 km away.
Similarly, NASA
GISTEMP is largely based on the same data sets used
by NOAA GlobalTemp.
The NASA
GISTEMP record is the most detailed of the four datasets, with grid boxes two degrees longitude
by two degrees latitude.
The
GISTEMP analysis was not affected
by this error, i.e. none of the results, tables, maps, graphs about global or regional means changed.
I calculated this
by using
GISTemp to calculate temperature anomalies for grids around the world for 1900 to 2010, using consecutively land only data, ocean only data and combined land & ocean data.
After some recent tweaks
by me to the ccc -
gistemp sources it is now possible to run a pipeline of the GISTEMP process with some of the steps o
gistemp sources it is now possible to run a pipeline of the
GISTEMP process with some of the steps o
GISTEMP process with some of the steps omitted.
«2014 * is * the warmest year in the
GISTEMP, NOAA and Berkeley Earth analyses,» he said, referring to different data sets kept
by different groups of scientists, including the one kept
by his center and known as «
GISTEMP.»
By the way, I am talking of actual temperature measurements here and am excluding the sharp peak in
GISTEMP at the beginning of 1998 which gives it a boost of 0.07 degrees.
So,
GISTemp is down 0.045 C since July 1998 taking into account the most important natural factors we know about (not up 0.24 C as predicted
by the IPCC).
The gridded temperature values computed
by ccc -
gistemp can be overlaid on the map
by selecting a source — ocean, land, or mixed.
The reason there's «much traffic for woodfortrees» is that it's
by far the best online tool for looking at
GISTEMP etc. from a great variety of perspectives.
Curios thing about forensics, if Hansens
GISTEMP data was being done
by a forensics lab and presented as - is, it would most certainly be thrown out of evidence for lack of chain if custody, lack of documentation, and random adjustements that skew the data.
Since (using
GISTEMP) global temperatures went up
by about 0.5 C during this period, one would say that natural variability and anthropogenic forcing each accounted for about 0.25 C of warming.
And and an... (Canada is interesting because the basic data do show a cooling trend, yet
GIStemp makes this nice rosy red somehow... but I digress...) The basic story told
by the thermometers is that they move.
GIStemp is a filter that TRIES to remove the data biases and is overwhelmed
by the massive bias.
The polar coverage of
GISTEMP arises mainly from the fact that
GISTEMP allows each weather station to contribute to an area of radius 1200 km around the station - this distance was determined
by examining how temperature changes with distance in regions with good coverage (see Of Averages and Anomalies - Part 1B).
There are three main global land / ocean surface temperature series, produced
by NOAA's National Climate Data Center (NCDC), NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (
GISTemp), and the UK's Hadley Center (HadCRUT).
The graph is based on ERA - Interim and four other datasets: JRA - 55 produced
by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA),
GISTEMP produced
by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), HadCRUT4 produced
by the Met Office Hadley Centre in collaboration with the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, and NOAAGlobalTemp produced
by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).