The same one - two punch of population growth followed
by consumption growth is now occurring in China (1.34 billion people) and India (1.2 billion).
Not exact matches
However, going back to the old model of
consumption - driven
growth underpinned
by the housing market, all this recent positive economic news shouldn't get anyone breaking out the champagne.
The U.S. Department of Energy projects that global energy
consumption will increase
by 53 % between 2008 and 2035, with most of that
growth coming from the long - term economic expansion in Asian countries.
Chinese dairy production and
consumption has soared in the past three decades, averaging a 12.8 % annual
growth rate since 2000 as a result of changing diet trends that are shifting more toward Western foods, according to a report
by the Institute of Agriculture and Trade Policy.
«There was still a risk that
growth in
consumption might turn out to be weaker than forecast if household income
growth were to increase
by less than expected.»
An unbroken
growth streak has created 7 million jobs and the expansion is now self - sustaining, driven
by domestic
consumption.
After a weak first half, the US economy in particular is strengthening: solid
consumption is being underpinned
by strong employment
growth and robust consumer confidence.
Consumption growth was robust in the third quarter, supported
by the new Canada Child Benefit, while the effects of federal infrastructure spending are not yet evident in the GDP data.
Crude
consumption is also being supported
by robust automobile sales, which set a six - month record in the U.S. following six straight years of
growth.
Following a 7.9 % jump in GDP in 2016, India's economy will likely accelerate going into the second half of this year and begin firing on cylinders in 2018, fueled
by growth in
consumption, public capital expenditures and external demand.
At the same time, global
consumption is expected to increase
by 1.5 million barrels a day both this year and next, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), with North America and Asia, particularly China and India, responsible for much of the
growth.
First, because they represented a transfer from net savers to net borrowers, they helped to exacerbate the split between the
growth in household income (households are net savers) and the
growth in GDP (which is generated
by net borrowers), and so led directly to the extraordinary imbalance in the Chinese economy in which
consumption, as a share of GDP, has declined to perhaps the lowest level ever recorded in history.
Over time this means that households will retain a growing share of China's total production of goods and services (at the expense of the elite, of course, who benefitted from subsidized borrowing costs) and so not only will they not be hurt
by a sharp fall in GDP
growth, but their
consumption will increasingly drive
growth and innovation in China.
«Rather,
growth in disposable income (and thus in
consumption) has been sustained since last year
by another $ 1.4 trillion in tax cuts and extended transfer payments, implying another $ 1.4 trillion of public debt.»
The investment outlook may also depend on how much progress China can make in its efforts to enact fiscal reforms as it works through its historic shift from export - led
growth to an economy led
by domestic
consumption.
That said, the oldest Boomers are past their «peak
consumption years», meaning less spending on key categories like transportation, housing and apparel, with the windfall more than picked up
by their children, netting out to about an average 0.77 % demographic driven annual
growth rate across sectors through 2060.12
For example, the very strong
growth in
consumption spending in the first quarter was supported
by a temporary boost from the Canada Child Benefit.
As a result, I observed at the time that most of the productivity «miracle» in the decade leading up to 2003 could be explained
by import
growth in excess of
consumption growth:
In 2014, however, gas
consumption growth declined
by almost half.
The speed with which China's GDP
growth slows in 2013 will tell us a lot about how determined Beijing is to rebalance the economy in such a way that
growth is driven more
by higher household income and
consumption and less
by investment funded
by rising government and government - related debt.
In the last two years as the bull argument has been pummeled into reality
by the surge in debt, the persistent failure of
consumption growth to close the gap with GDP
growth, and the sharp slowdown in overall
growth, the mood abroad has turned increasingly bearish, to the point that many people are speaking about a China collapse and the horrible implications this will have for the rest of the world.
«We believe new competition in OTT video
consumption could actually further accelerate adoption, supported
by more cable set - top integrations, continued
growth in connected TVs, and additional migration of content over to OTT.»
«This report discusses how tax structures can best be designed to support GDP per capita
growth.The analysis suggests a tax and economic
growth ranking order according to which corporate taxes are the most harmful type of tax for economic
growth, followed
by personal income taxes and then
consumption taxes, with recurrent taxes on immovable residential property being the least harmful tax.
This was partially offset
by consumption - driven gains in macaroni and cheese as well as innovation - led
growth in Lunchables, Capri Sun ready - to - drink beverages, and P3.
Homeownership tends to encourage spending on durable goods and hence its depressed levels could explain why real U.S.
consumption growth over 2011 - 2017 has been much weaker (
by about half a percentage point annualized every quarter) than the pre-recession average.
Future demand is projected
by Roskill to grow at an annual base rate of at least 9.7 % until 2025 with optimistic forecast at 15.7 % per annum
consumption growth.
The other two arrows: — fiscal and structural Abe may well have pledged to prioritise
growth over fiscal consolidation near - term, but he has wisely stuck
by the once - delayed
consumption tax hike in latter 2017.
Growth continued to be driven by domestic demand, with strong growth in consumption and public demand, moderate growth in business investment, but subtractions from dwelling investment and invent
Growth continued to be driven
by domestic demand, with strong
growth in consumption and public demand, moderate growth in business investment, but subtractions from dwelling investment and invent
growth in
consumption and public demand, moderate
growth in business investment, but subtractions from dwelling investment and invent
growth in business investment, but subtractions from dwelling investment and inventories.
Much of the decline has been self - imposed as communist leaders try to steer China to more sustainable
growth driven
by domestic
consumption following the past decade's explosive expansion based on trade and investment.
M2
growth rates of 5 - 6 % or more in turn would have triggered the portfolio re-balancing plus the increased investment and
consumption spending effects that were achieved
by the US and the UK QE programmes.
In the past few quarters, the composition of
growth has gradually shifted, with a slight slowdown in the pace of
consumption growth offset
by an increase in export
growth, in line with the strengthening world economy.
In China, we expect a moderation of
growth accompanied
by a number of policy reforms that we believe could lead to sustainable levels of
growth as the economy increasingly relies on rising
consumption.
Domestic demand has been held back
by weak
consumption, which fell
by 2.6 per cent over the year to the December quarter in response to restrictive measures introduced in 2002, aimed at slowing the previously very strong rates of
growth in consumer credit.
The
growth in domestic
consumption is being fed
by rising wages and a rising services sector.
Growth in the quarter was driven primarily
by private spending, with
consumption, housing and business investment all rising strongly.
In underlying terms, imports increased
by around 2 per cent in the September quarter, with services and
consumption goods imports accounting for most of the
growth.
High - saving countries created employment, and low - saving countries enjoyed faster
consumption growth as cheap imports meant that living standards rose
by more than the increase in production — worth around half a percentage point a year in the United Kingdom.
A second - half U.S. earnings recovery will be underpinned
by three key factors, we believe: a slowdown in the U.S. dollar's rise, stabilizing energy prices and solid
consumption growth driven
by rising wages.
Inflation certainly remains low in Europe but it is at least on a positive trajectory and
growth is being led for the most part
by domestic
consumption.
Regional economic data in the eurozone remained positive, indicating robust
growth underpinned
by solid domestic
consumption and export demand.
The
growth in
consumption over the last few years have been driven
by the «wealth effect» created
by people feeling richer as the value of their property has increased (have a look at my blog post from June 19th last year).
Domestic demand is expected to continue to grow solidly, buoyed
by strong
growth in
consumption.
The recent step - up in
growth has been underpinned
by strong household
consumption, which rose
by 1.6 per cent in the September quarter, propelled
by a sharp increase in disposable income flowing from recent fiscal initiatives.
As
growth has slowed, China must transform its export - led economy to one fueled
by domestic
consumption, become a leader in technological innovation, and power these changes with renewable energy.
By analysing the
growth of digital content
consumption and future landscape, it's surprising how accurate he is with his decision.
Demand
growth in the quarter was driven
by consumption and equipment investment; some of this demand was met from abroad, as imports continued to expand at a faster pace than exports.
A
consumption tax is on the flow of spending and
by taxing
consumption you raise its price relative to saving thereby fostering more saving resulting in greater investment in productive capital and higher long - term economic
growth.
Over the four quarters to December,
consumption increased
by a little under 4 per cent, down from a peak
growth rate of more than 6 per cent seen earlier that year.
Consumption was also supported
by an increase in household net wealth in the December quarter of 4.2 per cent, driven
by a substantial increase in the value of equities and rapid
growth in house prices.
Growth in these markets is being fuelled
by Asia's savers putting their money to work in Asia, not exporting it to the US to finance excessive US
consumption.