Variations in how the Earth is tilted and its orbit around the sun make for a pattern of planetary warming phases followed
by cooling phases across the millennia.
In 1975 Wallace Broeker (the guy who first used the phrase «global warming», predicted a rapid transition to warming in the 1980s, caused by a combination of rapidly rising CO2 emissions and a natural temperature cycle (derived from work on Greenland ice cores at Camp Century) which showed a rapid warming phase up to 1940, followed
by the cooling phase which was attenuated by CO2.
If the temperature pause is explained
by the cooling phase, does not the warming phase explain some of the earlier temperature rise?
Increasing GH gases necessarily means the system will accumulate more energy, and the changes in flux of energy from ocean to atmosphere caused
by cool phase PDO or ENSO changes don't change the fundamental external forcing caused by increases in GH gases.
Not exact matches
I've been reading that the vaunted, greatest jumbo ever made,
coolest plane on the «tarmac» Boeing 747 is being
phased out
by most airlines.
Alternatively, they can be turned into very hard alloys, referred to as a martensitic
phase,
by subjecting them to extremely rapid
cooling.
«With the help of optoelectrical Sisyphus
cooling we have increased the
phase - space density
by a factor of 10,000 which proves the usefulness of the technique.
But these severe winters may be a temporary
phase within longer term warming:
By the end of the century, the researchers report, the Arctic Oscillation could overpower the
cooling effect from WACE — and winter temperatures over Eurasia will gradually increase.
Since the end of last El Niño warming event of 1997 to 1998, the tropical Pacific Ocean has been in a relatively
cool phase — strong enough to offset the warming created
by greenhouse gas emissions.
The recurring wave pattern of intense rain and thunderstorms, followed
by a dry
phase as the force moves across the
cooler Pacific Ocean occurs every 30 - 60 days, giving this atmospheric wave its unique stamp on the climate.
But, according to a new analysis in the journal Geophysical Research Letters
by Ben Henley and Andrew King of the University of Melbourne, the 1.5 °C target may be reached or exceeded as early as 2026 if the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) shifts sea surface temperatures in the Pacific from a
cool to a warm
phase.
Although there are 6 types of flexibility training used
by sports coaches to develop specific goals, most people really only need to know about dynamic, static passive and isometric stretching and which one to use in the warm up and
cool down
phase of a workout.
«7 Tips for Self - Editing Your Novel»
by Melissa K. Norris on Wordserve Water
Cooler < — Breakin» it down so you don't feel so overwhelmed during the editing
phase.
Any form of strenuous exercise should be preceded
by a warm - up
phase and followed
by a
cool - down period.
The AWP multidecadal variability coincides with the signal of the AMO; that is, the warm (
cool)
phases of the AMO are characterized
by repeated large (small) AWPs.
The company is currently in a crowdfunding
phase and seeking to raise $ 40,000 with a Kickstarter project (which really isn't that much money, considering the millions raised
by an über - fancy
cooler and a funny card game), and is offering a full - on Pedal Forward bamboo bicycle (set up as a singlespeed / fixed gear) for just $ 500, or just the frame itself for $ 400 (so you can dress it up in all your favorite components yourself).
A new paper
by Andrew Dessler of Texas A&M University bolsters the established view of clouds» role as a feedback mechanism — but not driver — in climate dynamics through a decade of observation and analysis of El Nino and La Nina events (periodic warm and
cool phases of the Pacific Ocean).
[Response: SO2 would be in the gas
phase, but it condenses to small particles, which actually
cool the planet
by scattering visible light to space.
As Parties to Montreal Protocol negotiate a global agreement for an HFC
phase - down this year, several safety standards and building codes are threatening to limit the climate ambition and effectiveness of this agreement
by blocking the uptake of low global warming potential (GWP), energy efficient alternatives to hydrofluorocarbon (HFC)- based
cooling around the world.
I also believe that it is possible that the earth cycle has entered a
cooling phase since the late 1940's that has been slowed and turned into a warming
phase by CO2 and the short - lived GHGs.
After 1940 there is another AMO explicable
cooling phase that is always explained away
by a magical process involving the increase in light reflecting aerosols.
There is absolutely nothing to suggest that carbon dioxide is a climate driver beyond a spurious correlation with temperature in Antarctic ice cores where blinkered climate scientists talked up the supposed CO2 - amplified warming
phase but then just ignored the
cooling phase that told them CO2 was obviously dominated
by natural forces.
The negative
phase of IPO is characterized
by cooler - than - average sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific, facilitating the expansion of Antarctic sea ice.
During a
cooling phase, surface atmosphere could
cool as heat is transported to upper atmosphere
by more intense weather and then radiates away.
I understand that during that
phase the atmosphere
cools from the top down, leaving a small band of warm air only
by the morning.
The current
cool phase of the PDO, if
by that we mean the running average PDO index crossing from positive into negative territory began right after the mega 1997 - 1998 El Nino.
You write: «If internal variability (such a a
cool PDO
phase) reduces the rate of increase of surface temperature, while the e [x] ternal forcing still is increasing, this means the radiative imbalance is impeded from being cancelled
by surface warming.»
Alarmed
by: — The last 100 years has undone 5000 of the 7000 year long
cooling phase since the Holocene maximum.
If internal variability (such a a
cool PDO
phase) reduces the rate of increase of surface temperature, while the eternal forcing still is increasing, this means the radiative imbalance is impeded from being cancelled
by surface warming.
Because the mean meridional temperature gradient of the subsurface ocean is positive because of the temperature dome around 9 ° N, the advection
by the anomalous northward current
cools the TNA subsurface ocean during the warm
phase of the AMO.
Do you deny that increasing the mass,
by coupling to sub-surface material
by conduction, or a (transparent) atmosphere
by convection, would reduce the rate of change of temperature, both during the
cooling phase, and in the warming
phase when the illumination is switched on again?
Also, the above chart of the 12 - month means clearly shows a climate that moves from
cooling to warming
phases, and then back - a natural oscillation that «catastrophic global warming» skeptics have long discussed, while being dismissed
by the IPCC and its cohorts.
The warm / rainy
phase of a composited average of fifteen oscillations is accompanied
by a net reduction in radiative input into the ocean - atmosphere system, with longwave heating anomalies transitioning to longwave
cooling during the rainy
phase.
To point out just a couple of things: — oceans warming slower (or
cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to warm or to
cool (I mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made
by some serrist, but don't know who) that oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no
phase change inside oceans, so no latent heat) or oceans begin to release heat but in the same time they have to
cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that in last years land temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while oceans are slightly
cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but, in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands» warming is led
by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part in temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters warming slower than lands, and because lands» temperatures are often measured in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a global uncertainity in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters» temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities temperature trends actually show an increase in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time
cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but, in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
In 1976/77 the surface temperature of a vast area of the Pacific Ocean abruptly warmed
by several degrees as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation shifted from «
cool phase» to «warm
phase».
Our devotee will also pass
by the curious additional facts that a period of similar warming occurred between 1918 and 1940, well prior to the greatest
phase of world industrialisation, and that
cooling occurred between 1940 and 1965, at precisely the time that human emissions were increasing at their greatest rate.
So in the past, as shown from the ice core records, when the interglacial cycle reaches its
cooling phase and the atmosphere starts to
cool in spite of increasing CO2 levels (proven that changes in CO2 lags temperature change
by about 800 years) you are saying that didn't happen?
Hopefully, it really is due to CO2, because then we can mitigate the next 30 years of
cool phase by keeping CO2 levels high.
«Thirty - five vertical temperature profiles during the warming and
cooling phases of the diurnal cycle (Fig. 6) were obtained
by free - rising profiler at low wind speed.»
All the
cooling from the negative
phases of theses so - called «oscillations» has been captured
by the same deep oceans goblins that think it's funny to falsify the Argo data.
The role played
by volcanic - induced
cooling in the recent warming hiatus is not accurately described in the latest
phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.
By analyzing a number of time series of phenomena influenced by climate, they found that the earth has global climate cycles of 50 - 70 years with an average of about 60 years and which have cool and warm phases of 30 years eac
By analyzing a number of time series of phenomena influenced
by climate, they found that the earth has global climate cycles of 50 - 70 years with an average of about 60 years and which have cool and warm phases of 30 years eac
by climate, they found that the earth has global climate cycles of 50 - 70 years with an average of about 60 years and which have
cool and warm
phases of 30 years each.
The current
cooling phase has been accompanied
by an increase in size of the poleward high pressure systems and a sinking equatorward of the jet streams in both hemispheres.
``... if there is a la nina
phase where the
cool ocean
cools the atmosphere
by transferring heat...» — Do you even read what you are writing Mark?
With a new awareness that climate could change in serious ways, in the early 1970s some scientists predicted a continued gradual
cooling, perhaps a
phase of a long natural cycle or perhaps caused
by human pollution of the atmosphere with smog and dust.
The models heavily relied upon
by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years»
cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its
cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and
coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20th century.
The 20th «century» warming «trend» is actually two warming
phases lasting only 30 years long each (broken
by «aersol
cooling» in teh 60s and 70s?).
As the ice sheets waxed and waned, global climate drifted steadily toward
cooler conditions characterized
by increasingly severe glaciations and increasingly
cool interglacial
phases.