Sentences with phrase «by decadal variability»

«Over the past millennium, late 20th century snowpack reductions are almost unprecedented in magnitude across the northern Rocky Mountains and in their north - south synchrony across the cordillera... the snowpack declines and their synchrony result from unparalleled springtime warming that is due to positive reinforcement of the anthropogenic warming by decadal variability.

Roemmich et al (2007) suggest that mid-latitude gyres in all of the oceans are influenced by decadal variability in the Southern and Northern Annular Modes (SAM and NAM respectively) as wind driven currents in baroclinic oceans (Sverdrup, 1947).

Not exact matches

A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scales.

Such modulation of ENSO impacts by the decadal monsoon variability was also observed in the rainfall regimes over Southeast Asia (Kripalani and Kulkarni, 1997b).

Screen, J. A. & Francis, J. A. Contribution of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability.

On decadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerlingdecadal time scales, annual streamflow variation and precipitation are driven by large - scale patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and HoerlingDecadal Oscillation (see teleconnections description in Climate chapter)(Pederson et al. 2011a; Seager and Hoerling 2014).

Loggerhead juveniles disperse to regions whose climatic variability is characterized (a) in the North Atlantic by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and (b) in the North Pacific by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

What we've observed is unusual, but it is also dominated by decadal climate variability, and can't be considered «unprecendeted».

Reliable data on decadal variability of the Earth's radiation budget are hard to come by, but to provide some reality check I based my setting of the scaling factor between radiative forcing and the SOI / PDOI index on the tropical data of Wielecki et al 2002 (as corrected in response to Trenberth's criticism here.)

Specifically, he addressed a claim made by Will Happer, a Princeton professor, that no models demonstrate decadal variability in trends (which was not the case), and explored in depth the signal to noise ratio in determining climate trends much more comprehensively than had been done previously.

Ice - sheet responses to decadal - scale ocean forcing appear to be less important, possibly indicating that the future response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet will be governed more by long - term anthropogenic warming combined with multi-centennial natural variability than by annual or decadal climate oscillations.»

Mike's work, like that of previous award winners, is diverse, and includes pioneering and highly cited work in time series analysis (an elegant use of Thomson's multitaper spectral analysis approach to detect spatiotemporal oscillations in the climate record and methods for smoothing temporal data), decadal climate variability (the term «Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation» or «AMO» was coined by Mike in an interview with Science's Richard Kerr about a paper he had published with Tom Delworth of GFDL showing evidence in both climate model simulations and observational data for a 50 - 70 year oscillation in the climate system; significantly Mike also published work with Kerry Emanuel in 2006 showing that the AMO concept has been overstated as regards its role in 20th century tropical Atlantic SST changes, a finding recently reaffirmed by a study published in Nature), in showing how changes in radiative forcing from volcanoes can affect ENSO, in examining the role of solar variations in explaining the pattern of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age, the relationship between the climate changes of past centuries and phenomena such as Atlantic tropical cyclones and global sea level, and even a bit of work in atmospheric chemistry (an analysis of beryllium - 7 measurements).

I think the interesting question raised (though not definitively answered) by this line of work is the extent to which some of the pause in warming mid-century might have been more due to decadal ocean variability rather than aerosols than is commonly thought.

If the aim is to reconstruct the short - timescale (say interannual to decadal) variability of tree - growth it makes sense to remove the unwanted variability at source — say by high - pass filtering the measurements before averaging the series to produce a chronology.

At the October 2004 SORCE meeting there was a presentation by Enric Palle (Big Bear Solar Observatory) on «Decadal Variability in the Earth's Reflectance as Observed by Earthshine».

While that is possible, the so - called Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index that is used to characterize decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean has not shown a significant increasing or decreasing three - decade trend from the 1980's to the 2000's (it's dominated by quasi-decadal fluctuation sinceDecadal Oscillation (PDO) index that is used to characterize decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean has not shown a significant increasing or decreasing three - decade trend from the 1980's to the 2000's (it's dominated by quasi-decadal fluctuation sincedecadal and multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean has not shown a significant increasing or decreasing three - decade trend from the 1980's to the 2000's (it's dominated by quasi-decadal fluctuation sincedecadal variability of the Pacific Ocean has not shown a significant increasing or decreasing three - decade trend from the 1980's to the 2000's (it's dominated by quasi-decadal fluctuation sincedecadal fluctuation since 1980).

The differences between the quadratic acceleration numbers come from differences in the decadal to multidecadal variability in the curves which I don't consider very robust (we have shown in Rahmstorf et al. 2012 how strongly these can be affected by a small amount of «noise» in the sea - level data).

While rereading the ocean heat content changes by Levitus 2005 at http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/PDF/PAPERS/grlheat05.pdf a remarkable sentence was noticed: «However, the large decrease in ocean heat content starting around 1980 suggests that internal variability of the Earth system significantly affects Earth's heat balance on decadal time - scales.»

We have warm El Ninos followed by cooler La Ninas, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Julian Oscillation,... When we want to refer to them as a whole, we will call it «internal variability.»

``... My comments quoted above refer very specifically to the potential for global models to give more precise probability distributions of outcomes at the regional and decadal scales which are dominated by intrinsic interannual and interdecadal variability.»

and J. Willebrand, J. (1996) «Decadal Variability», Springer, NATO ASI series, volume 44; chapter: «Spectral Methods: What they Can and Can not Do for Climate Times Series» by M. Ghil and P. Yiou

However, my comments quoted above refer very specifically to the potential for global models to give more precise probability distributions of outcomes at the regional and decadal scales which are dominated by intrinsic interannual and interdecadal variability.

This result is consistent with land surface temperatures reconstructed from tree rings, other terrestrial proxies, and documentary evidence also indicating greater regional variability than simulated by models at decadal and longer timescales (33 — 35).

Therefore, the projections contain little of decadal or shorter signals of variability — we're quite confident they have the global warming signal as represented by the model (except in desert regions, where one event can define the signal).

«Antarctic Sea - Ice Expansion between 2000 and 2014 Driven by Tropical Pacific Decadal Climate Variability.»

Results from our previous study indicated that the magnitude of unforced variability simulated by climate models may be underestimated on decadal and longer timescales and our new estimate of unforced variability largely supports this conclusion.

Antarctic sea - ice expansion between 2000 and 2014 driven by tropical Pacific decadal climate variability.

Anthropogenic global warming inherently has decadal time scales and can be readily masked by natural variability on short time scales.

The study by Macias & Johnson (2008) provides not only evidence for the link between decadal - scale changes in the teleconnection patterns (e.g. the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannudecadal - scale changes in the teleconnection patterns (e.g. the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannuDecadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire - climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial / decadal to interannudecadal to interannual.....

In the Chukchi Sea ice variability is dominated by decadal fluctuations, and there is no evidence of the LFO.

The ice variability in these seas is dominated by a multidecadal, low - frequency oscillation (LFO) and (to a lesser degree) by higher - frequency decadal fluctuations.

Let me say again 20 % of the LOD's decadal variability is strongly correlated to the sunspot magnetic cycle This is based on the LOD data widely used by the NASA - JPL and Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris.

http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/SSN-LOD.htm the angular momentum is compensated by the inner - outer core differential rotation; this is then reflected in the decadal variability of the core's magnetic field output, providing the data used in the above link.

The atmospheric warming is the factor that can best explain this consistency, up to ~ 0.7 °C since 1950 and more marked since 1976, while the trend in precipitation is much less homogeneous over this area and is affected by a significant decadal variability.

The Earth's field sustains the magnetosphere and it is not constant either, it shows similar decadal variability, as shown in the data from and used by number of distinguished geo - magnetic scientists and researchers (Jault Gire, LeMouel, J. Bloxham, D. Gubbins, A.Jackson, R. Hide, D. Boggs, J. Dickey etc,) Since changes in either of two fields affect strength of the magnetosphere, it would be expected that the «magnetospheric variability» time function could be produced by combining two sets of available data.

natural internal variability can be pretty large on decadal to century time scales, and minimization of this variability by the hockey team has been very damaging to the science and the identification and intepretation of natural variability.

«The evidence presented here suggests that most of that warming might well have been caused by cloud changes associated with a natural mode of climate variability: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.»

Roger could reply again by stating that models that don't show skill in projecting changing statistics can not be used for this reasoning by simulation, but I remain to disgree with him: the skill of climate models to project changing climate statistics at decadal time scales can formally not be established due to large role of natural variability, but is also not always required for generating useful information that enters the imagination process.

Top down modulation of SAM and NAM by solar UV has the potential to explain otherwise little understood variability at decadal to much longer scales in ENSO.

Tropical origins of North and South Pacific decadal variability by Jeremy D. Shakun and Jeffrey Shaman makes some very interesting findings suggesting that both the northern and southern Pacific Ocean has evidence of the Pacific Decadal Variation PDV bdecadal variability by Jeremy D. Shakun and Jeffrey Shaman makes some very interesting findings suggesting that both the northern and southern Pacific Ocean has evidence of the Pacific Decadal Variation PDV bDecadal Variation PDV being...

Second, radiative balances, to the extent that can be measured in the tropics, show VERY LARGE decadal variability, caused by variations in cloudiness, it is presumed.

The climate of the past millennium was marked by substantial decadal and centennial scale variability in the Northern Hemisphere.

The LIA was dominated by a ∼ 20 year AMO cycle with no other decadal or multidecadal scale variability above the noise level.

However, direct attribution of these changes to climate change is made difficult by long - term patterns of variability that influence productivity of different parts of the Ocean (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation).

Written after the AR4 totally stuffed up by ignoring what was obvious about decadal variability.

Our results suggest that the decadal AO and multidecadal LFO drive large amplitude natural variability in the Arctic making detection of possible long - term trends induced by greenhouse gas warming most difficult.

Decadal variations in the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation are characterized by a pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies that resemble the central Pacific El Niño, a dominant mode of interannual variability with far - reaching effects on global climate patterns5, 6, 7.

Comparison with the literature shows that the CSSR draft misleads by omission in not mentioning both the strong decadal ‐ scale variability of GMSL rates during the 20th century and the fact that the most recent values of the rate are statistically indistinguishable from those during the first half of the 20th century.

Our results show that hydroclimatic variability in the Southwest has not remained constant over the last millennia, with a shift from low to high variance at the MCA - LIA transition that was accompanied by a change in quasi-periodic variance, from a higher concentration of power in the multi-decadal periodicities during the MCA vs. interannual and decadal periodicities during the LIA.

As the authors state, these fluxes reflect fundamental characteristics of the climate system and have been well measured by satellite instrumentation in the recent past — although (multi) decadal internal variability in them could be a confounding factor.