Sentences with phrase «by event attribution»

This is addressed by evaluating change in global or large - scale patterns in the frequency or intensity of extremes (e.g., observed widespread intensification of precipitation extremes attributed to human influence, increase in frequency and intensity of hot extremes) and by event attribution methods.

Not exact matches

«This new way of viewing the problem could be a game changer in the attribution of extreme events by providing a framework to quantify the portion of the damage that can be attributed to climate change — even for events that themselves can not be directly attributed to climate change using traditional methods,» continues Hammerling.

Overall, the chances of seeing a rainfall event as intense as Harvey have roughly tripled - somewhere between 1.5 and five times more likely - since the 1900s and the intensity of such an event has increased between 8 percent and 19 percent, according to the new study by researchers with World Weather Attribution, an international coalition of scientists that objectively and quantitatively assesses the possible role of climate change in individual extreme weather events.

A new report released Friday by the National Academy of Sciences has found that such extreme event attribution studies can be done reliably for certain types of weather extremes, including heavy precipitation.

Just days later, a real - time analysis by scientists working with Climate Central's World Weather Attribution program has found that global warming has boosted the odds of such an extreme rainfall event in the region by about 40 percent — a small, but clear, effect, the scientists say.

Because these moderate extremes are by definition more common, and because the authors looked at global statistics rather than those for highly localized, rare events, the conclusions are extremely robust, said Peter Stott, leader of the Climate Monitoring and Attribution Team at the Met Office Hadley Centre, in the U.K. «I think this paper is very convincing,» said Stott, who was not involved in the research.

This included an event - specific attribution study on the 2013 New Zealand drought, as well as highlighting differences in the emergence of heat extremes for the global population when aggregated by income grouping.

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I don't see a similar «point of contact» between models and reality as far as attribution studies of extreme events are concerned, given that what we need to compare are modeled statistics (which we can always have by making many model runs) and meaningful real statistics, (which are hard to get)?

What follows is that the likelihood of 3 sigma + temperature events (defined using the 1951 - 1980 baseline mean and sigma) has increased by such a striking amount that attribution to the general warming trend is practically assured.

As long as we're talking about extreme weather events and attribution... although Kerry Emanuel is usually the go - to guy for the study of increasing tropical cyclone intensity, his 2005 and 2011 (linked to above by Stefan) papers being the most cited, there is a limitation of scope in that only the North Atlantic basin is covered by these papers, AFAIK.

«Chief among these,» wrote Mann, «is the notion that just because somebody hasn't done a formal attribution study of a particular event, that event somehow must not have been influenced by climate change.»

For example, after an extreme weather event, scientists often carry out single attribution studies to determine how the likelihood of such an event could have been influenced by climate change and short - term climate variability.

«Uncritical Attribution Claims... Bolstered By The Cultural And Media Propensity For Hyping Extreme Events»

the attribution of a specific heavy precipitation event to human - caused GHG's is not an extra development in science that is needed to add to the burden of proof regarding the human influence on climate already provided by the current scientific evidence.»

A recent analysis [1] by Dr Luke Harrington and Dr Friederike Otto of climateprediction.net introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA).

The latest in so - called attribution studies is to study each individual event by itself, looking for how climate change may have made it stronger or more likely.

A new report by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) presents the findings of their analysis of all research papers published since the Paris summit two years ago on the attribution of specific events to climate change.

From «completely consistent with» to «ex cathedra attribution» in one swell foop is «consistent with» every other ex cathedra proclamation of attribution by «climate science» to ACO2 whenever an undesirable event, climate or otherwise, happens anywhere in the world.

Up to now I've had tremendous respect for Dr. Trenberth, particularly his effort to clarify the disastrous distortability of «no single event» attribution by saying «all events» include a contribution from climate change.

It consisted of two talks: «Communicating uncertainty in climate information: insights from the behavioural sciences», by Andrea Taylor, University of Leeds (UK) «Event attribution: from research to climate service», by Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Royal National Meteorological Institute - KNMI (The Netherlands)

Event attribution analysis suggests that human induced greenhouse gas increases may also have contributed by causing evapotranspiration rates to be higher than they would have been under pre-industrial conditions.

«We know that the largest damages are through extreme weather events... [By] linking event attribution with the damages we see and say [ing] which ones of those are made more likely by climate change (and it is by no means all of them), we can get an inventory of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, which can then inform the loss - and - damage debate.&raquBy] linking event attribution with the damages we see and say [ing] which ones of those are made more likely by climate change (and it is by no means all of them), we can get an inventory of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, which can then inform the loss - and - damage debate.&raquby climate change (and it is by no means all of them), we can get an inventory of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, which can then inform the loss - and - damage debate.&raquby no means all of them), we can get an inventory of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, which can then inform the loss - and - damage debate.»

The research leading to these results has received funding under the EUCLEIA (EUropean Climate and weather Events: Interpretation and Attribution) project under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme [FP7 / 2007 -2013] under grant agreement no 607085 (PAS, NC, J - V, HvS, GvO, RV, PW, PY) PAS was partially supported by the UK - China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CCSP) China as part of the Newton fund.

This included an event - specific attribution study on the 2013 New Zealand drought, as well as highlighting differences in the emergence of heat extremes for the global population when aggregated by income grouping.

Chief among these is the notion that just because somebody hasn't done a formal attribution study of a particular event, that event somehow must not have been influenced by climate change.

The models, note, only over estimate recent temperature trends by 18 %, half the expansion of the uncertainty range - and that overestimation has been eliminated from the attribution by scaling in any event.

Saño is referring to an emerging body of science authored by researchers from the University of Oxford's Environmental Change Institute known as Probabilistic Event Attribution (PEA), which deals with examining to what extent extreme weather events can be associated with past anthropogenic emissions.

David — We can probably agree that attribution of extreme events is difficult because (1) they are uncommon, almost by definition, and therefore good data tends to be sparse, and (2) they are rarely due to a single factor, but rather are associated with a confluence of conditions.

I wondered what speeches by the Nobel scientists might reveal, particularly related to their attributions about positive events.