Beyond the long - term record, the past five years have been punctuated
by extreme heat events around the globe, the most recent being an
Not exact matches
This does not mean, of course, that individual
extreme events (such as the 2003 European
heat wave) can be said to be simply «caused»
by human - induced climate change — usually such
events are complex, with many causes.
NCAR, which is financed in part
by the National Science Foundation, has spent several years searching for ways to extend the predicability of floods, droughts,
heat waves and other
extreme weather
events from weeks to months as a way to give weather - sensitive sectors such as agriculture more time to protect themselves against costly losses.
The letter, which was spearheaded
by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, warns of the numerous threats posed
by climate change — including
extreme weather
events, regional water scarcity,
heat waves and wildfires.
Amplification of existing health threats: The effects of
extreme heat and
heat waves, projected worsening air pollution and asthma,
extreme rainfall and flooding, and displacement and injuries associated with
extreme weather
events, fueled
by climate change, are already substantial public health issues.
That could be punctuated
by unbearable
heat waves,
extreme rainfall
events, and violent storms.
This included an
event - specific attribution study on the 2013 New Zealand drought, as well as highlighting differences in the emergence of
heat extremes for the global population when aggregated
by income grouping.
But if you're into endurance
events,
by sweating out sodium and hydrating with water alone, you could experience
heat cramps or hyponatremia, a low concentration of sodium in the blood that can be fatal in
extreme cases.
Regardless, I would posit the worsening winter ice formation is as expected given the poles suffer first and winters warm faster than summers, BUT that this is happening within two years of the EN peak, which was my time line in 2015, one wonders if the combination of warm EN -
heated Pacific waters (oceans move slowly) and warm air are a trailing edge of the EN effect OR this is signallibg a phase change driven
by that EN, or is just an
extreme winter
event.
If this trend is not halted soon, many millions of people will be at risk from
extreme events such as
heat waves, drought, floods and storms, our coasts and cities will be threatened
by rising sea levels, and many ecosystems, plants and animal species will be in serious danger of extinction.
What this shows first of all is that
extreme heat waves, like the ones mentioned, are not just «black swans» — i.e. extremely rare
events that happened
by «bad luck».
According to one of the most
extreme opinion expressed
by former Vice President and now Noble Laureate Al Gore in his book entitled «An Inconvenient Truth», we can be certain to see catastrophic
events such as droughts, floods, epidemics, killer
heat waves, etc. as a result of global warming.
Another veteran climatologist, John Michael Wallace of the University of Washington, sees a similar message in
extreme events in relation to the background push from greenhouse gases, but says efforts to demonstrate that today's
heat waves are driven substantially
by greenhouse
heating can be a damaging distraction.
The brochure for the workshop states: «Climate change caused
by fossil fuel burning leads to increased risks of
extreme events such as
heat waves, droughts, fires, severe storms, floods which in turn have major health effects.»
Historically when there was an
extreme weather
event — an intense
heat wave or a drought — we knew it was temporary and that things would likely be back to normal
by the next harvest.
In the Northeast, «Communities are affected
by heat waves, more
extreme precipitation
events, and coastal flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge,» for example, while in the Southeast and Caribbean, «Decreased water availability, exacerbated
by population growth and land - use change, causes increased competition for water.
Observational data, evidence from field experiments, and quantitative modeling are the evidence base of the negative effects of
extreme weather
events on crop yield: early spring
heat waves followed
by normal frost
events have been shown to decimate Midwest fruit crops;
heat waves during flowering, pollination, and grain filling have been shown to significantly reduce corn and wheat yields; more variable and intense spring rainfall has delayed spring planting in some years and can be expected to increase erosion and runoff; and floods have led to crop losses.4, 5,6,7
A recent analysis [1]
by Dr Luke Harrington and Dr Friederike Otto of climateprediction.net introduces a new framework, adapted from studies of probabilistic
event attribution, to disentangle the relative importance of regional climate emergence and changing population dynamics in the exposure to future
heat extremes across multiple densely populated regions in Southern Asia and Eastern Africa (SAEA).
California has recently seen an uptick in
extreme heat events and warmer baseline temperatures, driven
by climate change.
Included here are the climate - change - related costs of
extreme weather
events such as Hurricanes Irene (which resulted in damages totaling $ 20 billion) and Sandy ($ 65 billion), along with the costs we incur from increasingly dangerous floods, wildfires, and
heat waves that are fueled
by global warming.
The report, written
by 220 experts from 62 countries, finds that climate change has already contributed to changes in
extreme events — such as
heat waves, high temperatures, and heavy precipitation — in many regions over the past 50 years.
As shown
by Coumou et al. (5) and Comou and Robinson (6), the observed long - term increase in frequency of
extreme heat events can, on a global scale, be explained purely thermodynamically as a response to a shift in the mean surface temperatures to warmer values.
3) indirect impacts mediated through societal systems, such as undernutrition and mental illness from altered agricultural production and food insecurity, stress and undernutrition and violent conflict caused
by population displacement, economic losses due to widespread «
heat exhaustion» impacts on the workforce, or other environmental stressors, and damage to health care systems
by extreme weather
events.
The Northeast is often affected
by extreme events such as ice storms, floods, droughts,
heat waves, hurricanes, and major storms in the Atlantic Ocean off the northeast coast, referred to as nor» easters.
Both also depend on aging infrastructure that has already been stressed
by climate hazards including
heat waves, as well as coastal and riverine flooding due to a combination of sea level rise, storm surge, and
extreme precipitation
events.
An as yet unpublished paper
by NASA climatologist James Hansen and others makes the case that recent
extreme heat events, such as Russia's 2010 deadly heatwave and last year's
extreme drought in Texas, are directly linked to our warming planet.
A pronounced shift can be seen in
extreme rainfall
events,
heat waves and wind storms and the underlying reason is climate change, says Muir - Wood, driven
by rising greenhouse gas emissions.
But, even so,
by 2075, an estimated 18 % of the Earth's surface could still experience those once - rare
extreme heat events every year.
By 2100, tropical regions would also experience warm spells lasting up to 50 percent longer in a 2 C world than at 1.5 C. «For
heat - related
extremes, the additional 0.5 C increase marks the difference between
events at the upper limit of present - day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions,» Schleussner said.
This included an
event - specific attribution study on the 2013 New Zealand drought, as well as highlighting differences in the emergence of
heat extremes for the global population when aggregated
by income grouping.
She continues
by observing that «it is likely that both
extreme weather
events (storms, floods,
heat waves) and changes in mean temperatures, precipitation and sea - levels will in many cases contribute to increasing levels of mobility.»
I'm not suggesting that the Hansen et al. doesn't support the narrow point made
by the text actually hyperlinked (increase in local
extreme heat events).
However, this approach is fraught with «correlation without a cause» error; it's unclear how or if the
heat caused this mortality, or whether some indirect correlation, eg if EMS services burdened
by an
extreme event being less available was a cause.
Summary of how they got to this finding: They use CMIP models which, if not outright flawed, have not proved their validity in estimated temperature levels in the 2030 to 2070 timeframe, are used as the basis for extrapolations that assert the creation of more and more 3 - sigma «
extreme events» of hot weather; this is despite the statistical contradiction and weak support for predicting significant increases in outlier
events based on mean increases; then, based on statistical correlations between mortality and
extreme heat events (ie
heat waves), temperature warming trends are conjured into an enlargement of the risks from
heat events; risks increase significantly only
by ignoring obvious adjustments and mitigations any reasonable community or person would make to adapt to warmer weather.
The increase of these
extreme anomalies,
by more than an order of magnitude, implies that we can say with a high degree of confidence that
events such as the
extreme summer
heat in the Moscow region in 2010 and Texas in 2011 were a consequence of global warming.
«Poorly constructed, badly maintained, and aging infrastructure and housing — a legacy of both the Soviet era and the transition years — are ill - suited to cope with storms,
heat waves, or floods, let alone protect people from such
extreme events,» said the study headed
by Zeljko Bogetic, the World Bank's lead economist for Russia... Floods or other «
extreme events» can cause far greater damage in Russia than would be the case in other parts of the world, the World Bank report said.
Stricken
by record
heat, wildfires, drought, and hurricanes, the United States endured devastating impacts from
extreme weather and climate
events in 2012.