The World Bank also warned when it released its report that «we're on track for a 4 °C warmer world [by century's end] marked
by extreme heat waves, declining global food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and life - threatening sea level rise.»
The study said that the world risks «cataclysmic changes» caused
by extreme heat waves, rising seas and depleted food stocks as it heads toward global warming of 4 degrees Celsius this century.
Not exact matches
Climate scientists have long warned that rising emissions of greenhouse gases
by humanity may cause weather
extremes, and not just
heat waves.
This does not mean, of course, that individual
extreme events (such as the 2003 European
heat wave) can be said to be simply «caused»
by human - induced climate change — usually such events are complex, with many causes.
In
extreme cases, marine
heat waves kill corals directly
by essentially roasting them alive.
TURNING UP THE
HEAT People living in regions of India, including Rajasthan where this image was taken, will experience extreme and potentially deadly heat waves by the end of the century, a new study sh
HEAT People living in regions of India, including Rajasthan where this image was taken, will experience
extreme and potentially deadly
heat waves by the end of the century, a new study sh
heat waves by the end of the century, a new study shows.
It speaks eloquently of stewardship of God's creation and care for the poor, those already affected
by the exacerbating impacts of climate change on droughts, floods,
heat waves, hurricanes and other
extreme weather.
The study shows that
by century's end, absent serious reductions in global emissions, the most
extreme, once - in -25-years
heat waves would increase from wet - bulb temperatures of about 31 C to 34.2 C. «It brings us close to the threshold» of survivability, he says, and «anything in the 30s is very severe.»
As average U.S. temperatures warm between 3 °F and more than 9 °F
by the end of the century, depending on how greenhouse gas emissions are curtailed or not in the coming years, the
waves of
extreme heat the country is likely to experience could bend and buckle rails into what experts call «sun kinks.»
NCAR, which is financed in part
by the National Science Foundation, has spent several years searching for ways to extend the predicability of floods, droughts,
heat waves and other
extreme weather events from weeks to months as a way to give weather - sensitive sectors such as agriculture more time to protect themselves against costly losses.
The letter, which was spearheaded
by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, warns of the numerous threats posed
by climate change — including
extreme weather events, regional water scarcity,
heat waves and wildfires.
Phoenix, Tucson and other cities hit
by the current
heat wave are built for
extreme temperatures, Keller said, so they're unlikely to see high levels of mortality.
Amplification of existing health threats: The effects of
extreme heat and
heat waves, projected worsening air pollution and asthma,
extreme rainfall and flooding, and displacement and injuries associated with
extreme weather events, fueled
by climate change, are already substantial public health issues.
But unless such drastic action is taken in the next few years, we are headed for a very different world, one in which seas will rise
by more than 5 metres over the coming centuries, and droughts, floods and
extreme heat waves will ravage many parts of the world (see «Rising seas expected to sink islands near US capital in 50 years «-RRB-.
That could be punctuated
by unbearable
heat waves,
extreme rainfall events, and violent storms.
So in this sense, the 2002 drought and associated
heat waves were more
extreme than the earlier droughts, because the impact of the low rainfall was exacerbated
by high potential evaporation (Karoly et al., 2003; Nicholls, 2004).
Then, they calculated the total exposure to
extreme heat in «person - days,»
by multiplying the number of
heat waves - days when temperatures reach at least 95 degrees -
by the number of people who are projected to live in the areas where
extreme heat is occurring.
The city is marked
by endless sunshine, sea breezes, and balmy evenings — but it's also the season when hotel rates spike,
extreme heat waves occur, and many small - business owners take weeks off.
If this trend is not halted soon, many millions of people will be at risk from
extreme events such as
heat waves, drought, floods and storms, our coasts and cities will be threatened
by rising sea levels, and many ecosystems, plants and animal species will be in serious danger of extinction.
What this shows first of all is that
extreme heat waves, like the ones mentioned, are not just «black swans» — i.e. extremely rare events that happened
by «bad luck».
This loss is exacerbated
by the intensifying Climate Destabilization (reportedly reflecting the start of the «Albedo Loss» feedback due to the decline of Arctic sea - ice and ice caps) which is suppressing subsistence farm yields and some commercial farm yields on a random basis
by the impacts of
extreme droughts, storms, floods, and
heat and cold
waves.
According to one of the most
extreme opinion expressed
by former Vice President and now Noble Laureate Al Gore in his book entitled «An Inconvenient Truth», we can be certain to see catastrophic events such as droughts, floods, epidemics, killer
heat waves, etc. as a result of global warming.
Updated, 4:04 p.m. A valuable study published this week in Nature Climate Change projects that exposure to
extreme heat in the United States is likely to rise enormously
by mid century, driven equally
by demographic shifts boosting Sun Belt populations and projected changes in
heat waves in a warming climate.
Another veteran climatologist, John Michael Wallace of the University of Washington, sees a similar message in
extreme events in relation to the background push from greenhouse gases, but says efforts to demonstrate that today's
heat waves are driven substantially
by greenhouse
heating can be a damaging distraction.
For many kinds of disruption, from crop failure caused
by drought to sickness and death from
heat waves, the main risks are in the
extremes, with changes in average conditions representing a climate with altered timing, intensity, and types of
extremes.
The brochure for the workshop states: «Climate change caused
by fossil fuel burning leads to increased risks of
extreme events such as
heat waves, droughts, fires, severe storms, floods which in turn have major health effects.»
Historically when there was an
extreme weather event — an intense
heat wave or a drought — we knew it was temporary and that things would likely be back to normal
by the next harvest.
In the Northeast, «Communities are affected
by heat waves, more
extreme precipitation events, and coastal flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge,» for example, while in the Southeast and Caribbean, «Decreased water availability, exacerbated
by population growth and land - use change, causes increased competition for water.
Above normal temperatures were, however, anticipated in climate models, though not the
extreme heat wave that occurred and which was driven primarily
by the absence of rain.
This technical document introduces EuroHEAT, a project co-funded
by the European Commission Directorate - General for Health and Consumers, aimed to improve public health responses to weather
extremes and to
heat -
waves in particular.
For example, morbidity and mortality outcomes of
extreme heat are strongly determined
by a) housing stock and access to air - conditioning in residences; b) existence and efficacy of
heat wave warning and response plans (for example, foreign - language - appropriate communications and transit plans to public cooling centers, especially for the elderly); and c) co-stressors (for example, air pollution).
Observational data, evidence from field experiments, and quantitative modeling are the evidence base of the negative effects of
extreme weather events on crop yield: early spring
heat waves followed
by normal frost events have been shown to decimate Midwest fruit crops;
heat waves during flowering, pollination, and grain filling have been shown to significantly reduce corn and wheat yields; more variable and intense spring rainfall has delayed spring planting in some years and can be expected to increase erosion and runoff; and floods have led to crop losses.4, 5,6,7
As reported
by Chris Mooney at Mother Jones at the time (now a journalist at the Washington Post), the draft report warned unequivocally that unchecked greenhouse gas emissions would cause the global warming trend to «accelerate significantly,» bringing more
heat waves and weather
extremes, severe storms, rising seas, devastating floods, prolonged droughts, and more.
Included here are the climate - change - related costs of
extreme weather events such as Hurricanes Irene (which resulted in damages totaling $ 20 billion) and Sandy ($ 65 billion), along with the costs we incur from increasingly dangerous floods, wildfires, and
heat waves that are fueled
by global warming.
Some of the meteorological threats, like
extreme downpours and
heat waves, are sure to worsen in a human -
heated climate, with warming from elevated levels of
heat - trapping carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases seen
by many climate scientists as already contributing to the severity of rains like those over Texas in recent days and Louisiana last year.
The report, written
by 220 experts from 62 countries, finds that climate change has already contributed to changes in
extreme events — such as
heat waves, high temperatures, and heavy precipitation — in many regions over the past 50 years.
This is caused not only
by increasing drought and direct (summer)
heat stress, but also
by increasing weather
extremes (
heat waves, storms, floods) and climate - induced plagues.
That's why I used the expression «represents a serious potential threat to humanity and our environment» (temperature increase
by 2100 of up to 6.4 C, increased droughts, floods, tropical cyclones,
heat waves,
extreme high sea level plus secondary effects, such as crop failures, spread of vector diseases, loss of drinking water from melting glaciers, etc. all as listed in IPCC AR4).
Which forms the basis for the IPCC claim of high climate sensitivity (mean value of 3.2 C), resulting in significant global warming (up to 6.4 C warming
by 2100), «
extreme high sea levels», increased «
heat waves», increased «heavy rains» and floods, increased «droughts», increased «intense tropical cyclones» — which, in turn, lead to crop failures, disappearance of glaciers now supplying drinking water to millions, increased vector borne diseases, etc. (for short, potentially catastrophic AGW — or «CAGW»).
Even as Europeans adapt to hotter summers, rising numbers of
heat - related deaths are likely.33, 34 The 2003
heat wave shows that even high - income countries such as the Netherlands are not currently positioned to cope with
extreme weather19 — a troubling prospect, as research suggests that
by as early as the 2040s, if we continue on the current high emissions path, about half the summers in southern Europe are likely to be as warm as the record - breaking
heat wave of 2003.26,35
The Northeast is often affected
by extreme events such as ice storms, floods, droughts,
heat waves, hurricanes, and major storms in the Atlantic Ocean off the northeast coast, referred to as nor» easters.
When the two characteristics of
extreme heat (duration and frequency) were combined, the number of
heat wave days per summer was projected to increase
by four - to five-fold in many western mountain states and Texas (red - orange).
Both also depend on aging infrastructure that has already been stressed
by climate hazards including
heat waves, as well as coastal and riverine flooding due to a combination of sea level rise, storm surge, and
extreme precipitation events.
When we put these developments against the harsh warnings of an organization as conservative as the World Bank — that «we're on track for a 4 °C warmer world marked
by extreme heat -
waves, declining global food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and life - threatening sea level rise» — the only reasonable conclusion is that the world has gone mad.
Millions of people will suffer, die and be displaced as a result of
extreme heat waves, sea - level rise as much as 100 cm
by 2100 with continuing large rates of rise, and
by more severe storms, droughts and floods.
A pronounced shift can be seen in
extreme rainfall events,
heat waves and wind storms and the underlying reason is climate change, says Muir - Wood, driven
by rising greenhouse gas emissions.
But if, in addition, global warming increases the variance of regional temperatures, then we increase the likelihood of
extreme heat waves by a lot.
Since 1950 the number of
heat waves worldwide has increased, and
heat waves have become longer.5 The hottest days and nights have become hotter and more frequent.6 7 In the past several years, the global area hit
by extremely unusual hot summertime temperatures has increased 50 - fold.8 Over the contiguous United States, new record high temperatures over the past decade have consistently outnumbered new record lows
by a ratio of 2:1.9 In 2012, the ratio for the year through June 18 stands at more than 9:1.10 Though this ratio is not expected to remain at that level for the rest of the year, it illustrates how unusual 2012 has been, and how these types of
extremes are becoming more likely.
Heat waves and
extreme temperature are reflected
by temperature variability.
The announcement comes as research published
by the National Academies shows that
extreme heat waves can be attributed with near - certainty to climate change; a NOAA study links global warming to toxic algae blooms; and paleoclimatic research shows that Antarctic glaciers fluctuated with ancient CO2 levels, raising sea level tens of meters when CO2 levels were just 500 ppm.