If we add in the warming effects of the other long - lived greenhouse gases, the best estimate rises to 1.22 °C surface warming caused by human emissions (we've only observed ~ 0.8 °C warming because much of that has been offset
by human aerosol emissions).
And exactly how much global warming is being offset
by human aerosol emissions?
Not exact matches
The warming commitment if we stop all
human emissions (GHG and
aerosol) is probably very substantial: The cooling effect of the
aerosol will very quickly disappear, thereby «unmasking» the greenhouse warming, approximately half of which has been canceled
by aerosol cooling up to now.
Human aerosol emissions are also offsetting a significant amount of the warming
by causing global dimming.
Analyses of the ground and aircraft data performed
by Setyan et al. (2012), Shilling et al. (2013), and Kleinman et al. (2016) showed that organic
aerosol production increased when
human - caused
emissions from Sacramento mixed with air rich in isoprene, an organic compound wafting from many plants that originate in the area's foothills.
Greenhouse gases can be attributed to about 0.9 °C of this warming, but it has been partially offset
by about 0.3 °C cooling from
human aerosol emissions.
26 Sun Stepped Art
Aerosols Greenhouse gases Warming from decrease Cooling from increase CO 2 removal
by plants and soil organisms CO 2
emissions from land cleaning, fires, and decay Heat and CO 2 removal Heat and CO 2
emissions Ice and snow cover Natural and
human emissions Land and soil biotoa Long - term storage Deep ocean Shallow ocean Troposphere Fig. 20 - 6, p. 469
25 Fig. 20 - 6, p. 469 Troposphere Cooling from increase
Aerosols Warming from decrease Green - house gases CO2 removal
by plants and soil organisms CO2
emissions from land clearing, fires, and decay Heat and CO2
emissions Heat and CO2 removal Deep ocean Long - term storage Land and soil biotoa Natural and
human emissions Shallow ocean Sun Ice and snow cover
To slow the rate of anthropogenic - induced climate change in the 21st century and to minimize its eventual magnitude, societies will need to manage the climate forcing factors that are directly influenced
by human activities, in particular greenhouse gas and
aerosol emissions.
This result shows, for 160 years, the GMT pattern (the climate) has not been affected
by human CO2
emission, volcanoes and
aerosols!
The warming commitment if we stop all
human emissions (GHG and
aerosol) is probably very substantial: The cooling effect of the
aerosol will very quickly disappear, thereby «unmasking» the greenhouse warming, approximately half of which has been canceled
by aerosol cooling up to now.
The identification of other, sometimes more powerful, greenhouse gases such as methane, the contributions to atmospheric carbon dioxide from other
human activities such as deforestation and cement manufacture, better understanding of the temperature - changing properties of atmospheric pollution such as sulphur
emissions,
aerosols and their importance in the post-1940s northern hemisphere cooling: the knowledge - base was increasing year
by year.
Radiative forcing is a way to quantify an energy imbalance imposed on the climate system either externally (e.g., solar energy output or volcanic
emissions) or
by human activities (e.g., deliberate land modification or
emissions of greenhouse gases,
aerosols, and their precursors).
Warming from decade to decade can also be affected
by human factors such as variations in the
emissions, from coal - fired power plants and other pollution sources, of greenhouse gases and of
aerosols (airborne particles that can have both warming and cooling effects).
The failure to actually reduce global
emissions has meant that all possibilities are now on the table, including some that sound like premises from a science - fiction novel:
Humans could sequester carbon dioxide
by removing it from the air through technologies that mimic trees, or we could spray water droplets in the lower atmosphere to reflect light and heat back to space, or we could seed sulfur
aerosols in the stratosphere to do the same.