Sentences with phrase «by natural variability in the climate»

I'd just like to make sure I understood your post correctly: the common answer to the «contrarian talking point» that much of the observed recent climate change could just be caused by natural variability in the climate system is that this would imply, broadly speaking, heat being moved from the oceans to the atmosphere — whereas we observe the opposite, oceans storing heat.

Not exact matches

«Although this widening is considered a «natural» mode of climate variability, implying tropical widening is primarily driven by internal dynamics of the climate system, we also show that anthropogenic pollutants have driven trends in the PDO,» Allen said.

«Regional changes are mostly due to natural variability but on top of that we see this pronounced overall weakening in summer storm activity,» says co-author Dim Coumou, «This is also something projected by climate models under future emission scenarios.

«Communicating the reality of climate change to the public is hampered by the large natural variability of weather and climate,» the Goddard scientists wrote in the draft, which was circulated by Hansen Friday evening and posted on the ClimateProgress.org blog shortly after.

These variations originate primarily from fluctuations in carbon uptake by land ecosystems driven by the natural variability of the climate system, rather than by oceans or from changes in the levels of human - made carbon emissions.

Such offices shall engage in cooperative research, development, and demonstration projects with the academic community, State Climate Offices, Regional Climate Offices, and other users and stakeholders on climate products, technologies, models, and other tools to improve understanding and forecasting of regional and local climate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory ComClimate Offices, Regional Climate Offices, and other users and stakeholders on climate products, technologies, models, and other tools to improve understanding and forecasting of regional and local climate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory ComClimate Offices, and other users and stakeholders on climate products, technologies, models, and other tools to improve understanding and forecasting of regional and local climate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory Comclimate products, technologies, models, and other tools to improve understanding and forecasting of regional and local climate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory Comclimate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory Comclimate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory Committee.

Ultimately, in forests not otherwise limited by energy or nutrients variability in moisture availability with natural and climate oscillations may drive establishment success between years (League and Veblen 2006), with indirect disturbance effects (e.g., fires, landslides, insect outbreaks, and pathogen attacks) greatly affecting long - term recruitment success (Clark et al. 2016).

These analyses, whilst not disproving the anthropogenic global warming theory, do show that the climate we are in today is not unusual in recent history, and therefore the possibility of natural variability causing the warming can not be ruled out, as it seemingly has been by many «independent» scientists, and the IPCC.

However, satellite observations are notably cooler in the lower troposphere than predicted by climate models, and the research team in their paper acknowledge this, remarking: «One area of concern is that on average... simulations underestimate the observed lower stratospheric cooling and overestimate tropospheric warming... These differences must be due to some combination of errors in model forcings, model response errors, residual observational inhomogeneities, and an unusual manifestation of natural internal variability in the observations.»

By looking at the signatures of climate change in precipitation intensity and comparing that to the internal variability and the observation, the researchers conclude that the probability of intense precipitation on any given day has increased by 7 percent over the last 50 years — well outside the bounds of natural variabilitBy looking at the signatures of climate change in precipitation intensity and comparing that to the internal variability and the observation, the researchers conclude that the probability of intense precipitation on any given day has increased by 7 percent over the last 50 years — well outside the bounds of natural variabilitby 7 percent over the last 50 years — well outside the bounds of natural variability.

The insufficient observational coverage has also been noted by the IPCC AR4 and by Gillett et al. (Nature Geoscience, 2008), who argue that the observed warming in the Arctic and Antarctic are not consistent with internal climate variability and natural forcings alone, but are directly attributable to increased GHG levels.

Natural climate variability refers to the variation in climate parameters caused by nonhuman forces.

It seems oddly tendentious to deny for instance the role of natural variability on the basis that some of the recent changes in these long standing climate patterns may be influenced by greenhouse gases.

It's painfully easy to paint oneself logically into a corner by arguing that either (i) vigorous natural variability caused 20th century climate change, but the climate is insensitive to radiative forcing by greenhouse gases; or (ii) the climate is very sensitive to greenhouse gases, but we still are able to attribute details of inter-decadal wiggles in the global mean temperature to a specific forcing cause.

Global temperature has in recent years increased more slowly than before, but this is within the normal natural variability that always exists, and also within the range of predictions by climate models — even despite some cool forcing factors such as the deep solar minimum not included in the models.

[I] n the 17 August Nature Climate Change study, a team led by [Kevin] Trenberth suggests that natural variability in the Pacific explains more than half of the hiatus.

Natural variability is now widely accepted as making a significant contribution and our argument for a lowered climate sensitivity — which would indicate that existing climate models are not reliable tools for projecting future climate trends — is buoyed by accumulating evidence and is gaining support in the broader climate research community.

The last year or so, driven by the unexplained hiatus in warming, we have seen substantially more attention being given to research on natural climate variability.

In the TAR (Mitchell et al., 2001), detection of climate change is the process of demonstrating that an observed change is significantly different (in a statistical sense) from what can be explained by natural variabilitIn the TAR (Mitchell et al., 2001), detection of climate change is the process of demonstrating that an observed change is significantly different (in a statistical sense) from what can be explained by natural variabilitin a statistical sense) from what can be explained by natural variability.

In my earlier posting, I tried to make the distinction that global climate change (all that is changing in the climate system) can be separated into: (1) the global warming component that is driven primarily by the increase in greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of temperature fluctuations about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trenIn my earlier posting, I tried to make the distinction that global climate change (all that is changing in the climate system) can be separated into: (1) the global warming component that is driven primarily by the increase in greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of temperature fluctuations about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trenin the climate system) can be separated into: (1) the global warming component that is driven primarily by the increase in greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of temperature fluctuations about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trenin greenhouse gases, and (2) the natural (externally unforced) variability of the climate system consisting of temperature fluctuations about an equilibrium reference point, which therefore do not contribute to the long - term trend.

These ups and downs in temperature are caused by natural climate variability.

The overarching goal of this WCRP research effort, led by WCRP's Core Project «Climate and Ocean Variability, Predictability and Change» (CLIVAR) as a Research Focus, is to establish a quantitative understanding of the natural and anthropogenic mechanisms of regional to local sea level variability; to promote advances in observing systems required for an integrated sea level monitoring; and to foster the development of sea level predictions and projections that are of increasing benefit for coastal zone Variability, Predictability and Change» (CLIVAR) as a Research Focus, is to establish a quantitative understanding of the natural and anthropogenic mechanisms of regional to local sea level variability; to promote advances in observing systems required for an integrated sea level monitoring; and to foster the development of sea level predictions and projections that are of increasing benefit for coastal zone variability; to promote advances in observing systems required for an integrated sea level monitoring; and to foster the development of sea level predictions and projections that are of increasing benefit for coastal zone management.

Lead author Dr Debbie Polson, of the University of Edinburgh's School of GeoSciences, said: «This study shows for the first time that the drying of the monsoon over the past 50 years can not be explained by natural climate variability and that human activity has played a significant role in altering the seasonal monsoon rainfall on which billions of people depend.»

Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project ################################################### Quote of the Week: «a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over considerable time periods.»

Climate change is defined by the Convention as «change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods» (article 1 (2Climate change is defined by the Convention as «change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods» (article 1 (2climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods» (article 1 (2climate variability observed over comparable time periods» (article 1 (2)-RRB-.

The day - by - day, month - by - month, year - by - year, etc. sequencing of values, however, will not correspond to observations, since climate models solve a «boundary value problem» and are not constrained to reproduce the timing of natural climate variability (e.g., El Niño - Southern Oscillation) in the observational record.

In addition to regional climate change being strongly affected by natural modes of variability, geographic differences in climate change are related to the uneven spatial distribution of aerosols and tropospheric ozonIn addition to regional climate change being strongly affected by natural modes of variability, geographic differences in climate change are related to the uneven spatial distribution of aerosols and tropospheric ozonin climate change are related to the uneven spatial distribution of aerosols and tropospheric ozone.

Natural variability might modulate the flow of energy between parts of the system, such as from ocean to atmosphere, but the «pace of climate warming», as in the general gain in energy (or loss of energy) of the entire climate system, can only be dictated by some external forcing, such as somthing that changes the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface, volcanoes, or changes in GH gas concentrations.

Soon and Baliunas just showed there was a mountain of evidence for the medieval warm period and other natural climate variability in history — a very good paper that is now accepted by climate science as more indicative of what actually occured in climate history.....

In 1990, two years after NASA scientist James E. Hansen issued his now famous warning about climate change during a congressional hearing, Lindzen started taking a publicly contrarian stance when he challenged then - senator Gore by suggesting in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society that the case for human - induced global warming was overstated and that natural climate variability could explain things just as easilIn 1990, two years after NASA scientist James E. Hansen issued his now famous warning about climate change during a congressional hearing, Lindzen started taking a publicly contrarian stance when he challenged then - senator Gore by suggesting in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society that the case for human - induced global warming was overstated and that natural climate variability could explain things just as easilin the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society that the case for human - induced global warming was overstated and that natural climate variability could explain things just as easily.

Contrary to another claim made by Betts, we are conversant with that research and have recently contributed to it by showing that climate models do accommodate recent temperature trends when the phasing of natural internal variability is taken into account — as it must be in comparing a projection to a single outcome.

The authors used very long control runs of both the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and Hadley Centre climate models (5,000 years for the GFDL model) to assess the probability that the observed and model - predicted trends in Arctic sea ice extent occur by chance as the result of natural climate variability.

IPCC relied on climate models (CMIP5), the hypotheses under test if you will, to exclude natural variability: «Observed Global Mean Surface Temperature anomalies... lie well outside the range of Global Mean Surface Temperature anomalies in CMIP5 simulations with natural forcing only, but are consistent with the ensemble of CMIP5 simulations including both anthropogenic and natural forcing...» (Ref.: Working Group I contribution to fifth assessment report by IPCC.

In response to claims made by Bob Carter that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had not uncovered evidence that global warming was caused by human activity, a former CSIRO climate scientist stated that Bob Carter was not a credible source on climate change and that «if he [Carter] has any evidence that [global warming over the past 100 years] is a natural variability he should publish through the peer review process.Climate Change had not uncovered evidence that global warming was caused by human activity, a former CSIRO climate scientist stated that Bob Carter was not a credible source on climate change and that «if he [Carter] has any evidence that [global warming over the past 100 years] is a natural variability he should publish through the peer review process.climate scientist stated that Bob Carter was not a credible source on climate change and that «if he [Carter] has any evidence that [global warming over the past 100 years] is a natural variability he should publish through the peer review process.climate change and that «if he [Carter] has any evidence that [global warming over the past 100 years] is a natural variability he should publish through the peer review process.»

That data reflects fully the natural year - to - year up - and - down readings caused partly by natural «short - term variability» that «always has and always will be present in the climate system.»

It simply ignores the alternative and null hypothesis, amply supported by empirical research, that currently observed changes in global climate indices and the physical environment are the result of natural variability.

Such offices shall engage in cooperative research, development, and demonstration projects with the academic community, State Climate Offices, Regional Climate Offices, and other users and stakeholders on climate products, technologies, models, and other tools to improve understanding and forecasting of regional and local climate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory ComClimate Offices, Regional Climate Offices, and other users and stakeholders on climate products, technologies, models, and other tools to improve understanding and forecasting of regional and local climate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory ComClimate Offices, and other users and stakeholders on climate products, technologies, models, and other tools to improve understanding and forecasting of regional and local climate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory Comclimate products, technologies, models, and other tools to improve understanding and forecasting of regional and local climate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory Comclimate variability and change and the effects on economic activities, natural resources, and water availability, and other effects on communities, to facilitate development of regional and local adaptation plans to respond to climate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory Comclimate variability and change, and any other needed research identified by the Under Secretary or the Advisory Committee.

Roger could reply again by stating that models that don't show skill in projecting changing statistics can not be used for this reasoning by simulation, but I remain to disgree with him: the skill of climate models to project changing climate statistics at decadal time scales can formally not be established due to large role of natural variability, but is also not always required for generating useful information that enters the imagination process.

... [M] ost of the trends observed since satellite climate monitoring began in 1979 CE can not yet be distinguished from natural (unforced) climate variability, and are of the opposite sign [cooling] to those produced by most forced climate model simulations over the same post-1979 CE interval.»

Mr Jarraud said: «Natural climate variability, caused in part by interactions between our atmosphere and oceans — as evidenced by El Niño and La Niña events — means that some years are cooler than others.

The fact that CO2 has been almost twenty times higher in the past, for millions of years at a time without triggering a catastrophe is completely ignored due to the cognitive dissonance of the true believers in Al Gore's movie fantasies — as is everything else that can be explained by natural climate variability.

the period is typified by sharp oscillations of climate during which for example Phil Jones noted that the warm British Climate in the 1730's wasn't exceeded until the 1990's (since when the temperature has dropped back) In consequence he confirmed that natural variability was greater than he had originally beclimate during which for example Phil Jones noted that the warm British Climate in the 1730's wasn't exceeded until the 1990's (since when the temperature has dropped back) In consequence he confirmed that natural variability was greater than he had originally beClimate in the 1730's wasn't exceeded until the 1990's (since when the temperature has dropped back) In consequence he confirmed that natural variability was greater than he had originally believein the 1730's wasn't exceeded until the 1990's (since when the temperature has dropped back) In consequence he confirmed that natural variability was greater than he had originally believeIn consequence he confirmed that natural variability was greater than he had originally believed.

You have not cited a third possibility (out of the infinite range of possibilities), no climate change associated with CO2 (due to, for example, cloud cover providing negative feedback), with current increase due to natural variability; or how about possibility four, that increase in CO2 concentrations are caused by the temperature rise, which is in turn caused by (for example) increased solar activity resulting in increased biomass activity etc. etc..

These analyses, whilst not disproving the anthropogenic global warming theory, do show that the climate we are in today is not unusual in recent history, and therefore the possibility of natural variability causing the warming can not be ruled out, as it seemingly has been by many «independent» scientists, and the IPCC.

Posmentier, E.S., W.H. Soon, and S.L. Baliunas (equal contribution by Posmentier and Soon), 2000: Natural variability in an - ocean - atmosphere climate model, Journal of Physics Malaysia19: 157.

Thus, future climate trends in regions affected by the NAO are best conveyed in terms of an expected range that incorporates both the natural variability and the forced climate change signal.

These glaciers are being eaten away from underneath due to warm ocean waters that have been driven toward the continent by shifting wind patterns that have in turn been linked to manmade global warming, as well as natural climate variability.

The distinctive characteristics of rural areas make them uniquely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because: • Greater dependence on agriculture and natural resources makes them highly sensitive to climate variability, extreme climate events and climate change • Existing vulnerabilities caused by poverty, lower levels of education, isolation and neglect by policy makers, can all aggravate climate change impacts in many ways.

At the moment, the uncertainties in modeling and complexities of the ocean system even prevent any quantification of how much of the present changes in the oceans is being caused by anthropogenic climate change or natural climate variability, and how much by other human activities such as fishing, pollution, etc..

The new study confirmed that the losses of Arctic ice in the late 20th century can't be explained by natural climate variability alone, the researchers write Thursday (Aug. 11) in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.