The cycling of the Earth system between glacial and interglacial modes has been ultimately driven
by orbital variations.
The greenhouse gases are best regarded as a biogeochemical feedback, initiated
by the orbital variations, but then feeding back to amplify the warming once it is already underway.
The fundamental driver has long been thought, and continues to be thought, to be the distribution of sunshine over the Earth's surface as it is modified
by orbital variations.
Those are paced
by orbital variations, which have nothing to do with solar activity.
The fundamental driver has long been thought, and continues to be thought, to be the distribution of sunshine over the Earth's surface as it is modified
by orbital variations.
The next ice age brought on
by orbital variation is projected to occur in about 50 000 years.
But some time around 850,000 years ago, the cycle grew to 100,000 years, and ice sheets reached greater extents than they had in several million years — a change too great to be explained
by orbital variation alone.
Not exact matches
Due to the close binary
orbital interactions of the host star with Alpha Centauri A and Star B's own increased stellar activity during recent years, the astronomers were only able to detect the radial - velocity
variations of host star B that were caused
by the 3.236 - day orbit of the planet (with a semi-major axis of 0.04 AU) only after more than four and a half years of careful observation.
If gravitation is driven
by something other than Einstein's theory of General Relativity, you'll see small
variations in the
orbital paths of the stars,» said Ghez.
These cycles are caused
by variations in the Earths
orbital properties around the sun.
Another provocative paper, well worth reading, is
by Carl Wunsch and attempts to uage the contribution of
orbital variations to climate change:
Due to the close binary
orbital interactions of the host star with Alpha Centauri A and Star B's own increased stellar activity during recent years, the astronomers were only able to detect the radial - velocity
variations of host star B that were caused
by the 3.236 - day orbit of the planet (with a semi-major axis of 0.04 AU) only after more than three years of careful observation.
Prior to 2009, small but significant
variations in radial velocity had been detected which may have been caused
by a substellar companion of one to nine Jupiter - masses with an
orbital period of 50 years of less (Campbell et al, 1988, pages 904, 906, and 919).
Several factors affect these cycles, but they are ultimately determined
by orbital forcing — the Sun's radiation received
by the Earth due to
variations in the Earth's orbit in the solar system.
First of all, simplify
by imagining a box with
orbital forcing as input and an (unobserable) temperature as output; the water vapor feed back is inside and is effectively instaneous on the scale of millennia appropriate for considerring ice age
variations.
These
orbital variations, which can be calculated from astronomical laws (Berger, 1978), force climate
variations by changing the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of solar radiation (Chapter 6).
# 29 — the phenomenon of greenhouse gases retaining heat at the surface of the earth operates on decadal scales, and the
orbital variations (Milankovitch cycles) which cause the waxing and waning of the ice ages operate on millennial scales, and both are fundamental physical processes, and are not elucidated
by computer models.
The data show that the sun's
variations have been small over the times we care about, the climate responds to
variations in sunshine caused
by orbital changes, but these are slow.
Ice sheets begin to retreat from their maximum extent due to the increase in sunlight driven
by the overall
orbital variations.
The glacial cycle of the past million years was forced
by long - term
orbital variations.
These cycles are caused
by variations in the Earths
orbital properties around the sun.
There is good evidence and physical grounds for CO2 and
orbital variations influencing glacial cycles, but that
by no means shows that they completely control the glacial system.
Earth's
orbital variations are driven partly
by gravitational interactions with the gas giants, and those
variations drive the Milankovich forcing.
CO2 concentrations are meaningless — it's water in all it's phases reacting to
variations in solar irradiance brought on
by various solar cycles and
orbital cycles that controls climate — PERIOD!
The National Research Council of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences has embraced the Milankovitch Cycle model...
orbital variations remain the most thoroughly examined mechanism of climatic change on time scales of tens of thousands of years and are
by far the clearest c...
First,
orbital tuning can increase the response
by matching the signal times, but there's a limit to how far it can go — it simply can't inflate the physical amplitude of the response, which dominates the period analysis once the tuning is done, and it certainly can't impose temporal
variations in the physical amplitude of the response.
Dynamics determine largely when and where precipitation falls and that is a determined largely
by fairly constant rotation of the earth,
orbital variation, and the location of the oceans and continents.
The Milankovich cycles (
variations in
orbital parameters of the Earth) regulate the ice ages («pacemakers» Imbrie called them)
by controlling insolation above 65 degrees N latitude.
If some scientists built a countering hypothesis tying in the current stand alone challenges solar and
orbital variations, mistakes in data, etc, I believe it would help to advancing understanding
by encouraging two things.
Changes in global - mean temperature induced
by Earth's
orbital variations may be used to quantify the climate sensitivity.
When I look at all of this, I see a handful of the 100 large solar system bodies showing some evidence of local warming (Jupiter's spot), some evidence of systemic warming with known causes that are a lot more likely than the Sun heating up (like well - understood
orbital variations), and some evidence that any warming experienced
by these bodies is possibly being exaggerated in the reporting.
Another provocative paper, well worth reading, is
by Carl Wunsch and attempts to uage the contribution of
orbital variations to climate change:
However,
orbital forcing is
by itself insufficient to explain all of this
variation, and Earth system scientists are focusing their attention on the interactions and feedbacks between the myriad components of the Earth system.