Michigan opened -9 at both Bookmaker.eu and Pinnacle and is getting pounded
by public bettors.
Here are three basketball sides being pounded, and likely overvalued,
by public bettors:
With a large handle being driven primarly
by public bettors, sharps have found multiple opportunites to take advantage of recreational action by buying back the opposite sides of those matchups.
Philadelphia opened as a -134 favorite at Pinnacle and, not surprisingly, has been hammered
by public bettors.
They lack nationwide fan bases, have lost more often than not, and are largely ignored
by public bettors.
Since 2005, NBA road teams have gone 7,053 - 6,776 ATS (51.0 %) and that record improves tremendously when they're being ignored
by public bettors.
Cleveland opened as 10 - point underdogs at Bookmaker, and they have been largely avoided
by public bettors.
It's extremely rare to find large favorites being ignored
by public bettors during the regular season, but we speculated that it would be similarly profitable.
t's extremely rare to find favorites who are being ignored
by public bettors, we wanted to know whether this trend had been profitable in past years and what the sweet spot was for these contrarian favorites.
The table below displays how visiting teams have performed when they are not being backed
by public bettors.
Cleveland still hasn't won a game this season and they're +125 to finish the season with a 0 - 16 record, so it's not entirely surprising to see them being largely ignored
by public bettors.
When they're also being avoided
by public bettors (receiving no more than 30 % of spread tickets) that record improves to 1,245 - 1,162 ATS (51.7 %).
Let's take a hypothetical matchup between a very public team (Duke) and a team that's usually avoided
by public bettors (Boston College).
Put another way, we believed that it would be lucrative to take favorites that were being ignored
by public bettors.
Clearly ranked favorites have offered value when they're being ignored
by public bettors, which should come as no surprise to anybody who has been reading this column throughout the season.
Over the past two weeks, we have examined the concept of fading the trendy underdog and backing favorites that are being widely ignored
by public bettors.
When they're being pounded
by public bettors, those results diminish significantly.
Minnesota hasn't received more than 69 % of spread bets since hiring Zimmer, which is amazing considering they have played against many teams that are typically avoided
by public bettors including Miami, Oakland, Tampa Bay and Tennessee.
Not exact matches
It's worth noting that although home - field advantage has been historically overvalued
by college football
bettors, the exact opposite is true when betting against the
public.
Bettors can view the latest college football odds, scores, injuries,
public betting trends and more
by visiting our free NCAAF odds page.
Oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book
by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side but rather shade their opening lines to capitalize on
public perception and then allow their sharpest
bettors to shape the line.
The Pats are expected to be 1 - point underdogs in this game, but
bettors can view the latest odds and
public betting trends
by visiting our free NFL odds page.
The
Public beat the spread with teams like Pittsburgh, New England, Atlanta, and the Jets — while Indianapolis and St. Louis surprised some
bettors by failing to cover.
New England is expected to be a 7 - point road favorite in that game, but
bettors can view the latest odds and
public betting trends
by visiting our free NFL odds page.
With an influx of casual
bettors entering the market,
public money has a more significant impact on line movement, which often creates artificially inflates lines that can be exploited
by contrarian
bettors.
Public perception, bolstered
by conventional wisdom and media coverage, led
bettors to assume that «stay» would win, which provided added value for those brave enough to go against the grain and take «leave» at plus money.
As always we're going to fade the
public, take the value created
by square
bettors and bet the road dog in this NFC South matchup.
With casual fans targeting these high - profile games, contrarian
bettors can profit
by simply going against the
public.
Assuming this level of one - sided
public betting continues,
bettors may find a better price on the Dodgers
by waiting until closer to game time.
Home teams are particularly undervalued when they're being avoided
by the majority of
public bettors.
By going against the mainstream narrative and taking unpopular viewpoints,
bettors have been able to capitalize on market inefficiencies and exploit
public perception.
Bettors can view the latest umpire assignments along with real - time odds,
public betting trends, injuries and more
by visiting our free MLB odds page.
Our past research has conclusively proven that
by betting against the
public, contrarian
bettors are able to capitalize on these artificially inflated lines.
With
public bettors now able to cash in on Notre Dame if they win
by two touchdowns, I don't expect many squares leaning towards Wake Forest unless the line moves back to 14 or higher.
By utilizing our
public betting trends from seven contributing sportsbooks, we're able to see which teams the
public bettors love and bet on the opposite side.
Bettors can also track the latest odds and
public betting trends
by visiting our free MLB odds page.
Bettors can access these picks along with Bet Signals, real - time odds,
public betting trends, value meter, line watcher, email alerts and more
by purchasing our Pro subscription.
The other way
bettors can easily identify sharp money is
by looking for reverse line movement, which is when a line moves against our
public betting percentages.
This season has seen historically high levels of
public support for AL teams during interleague play, and contrarian
bettors can exploit this tendency
by backing NL ball clubs.
This strategy capitalizes on
public perception and exploits artificially inflated lines
by targeting teams that are being widely ignored
by the majority of moneyline
bettors.
By jumping on moneylines that have been artificially inflated based on
public betting, contrarian
bettors can consistently realize added value.
Since we already knew that a majority of
public bettors routinely take ranked teams against ranked opposition, I believed that we could exploit this tendency
by focusing on heavily bet games where shading would be more prevalent.
-- Over the weekend we detailed how
bettors could profit
by betting against the
public on MLB totals.
This goes to show you that the
public often overvalues star players and that sharp
bettors can capitalize
by not overreacting to an injury.
By examining
public betting trends, sharp money indicators and betting system matches, I have been able to identify which sides and totals offered value to
bettors.
By examining historical trends,
public betting trends and sharp money indicators (like steam and reverse line movement), I was able to pinpoint which team was offering contrarian value to
bettors.
The influx of
public money creates artificially inflated lines, which can be exploited
by opportunistic
bettors.
The Oakland Raiders have been one of the bigger surprises this year, which
public bettors have obviously realized
by now.
After seeing that some of our traditional contrarian strategies have had mixed results for second half
bettors, we believed that we could create an excellent halftime betting system
by capitalizing on
public perception.
By simply betting against these sizeable favorites, second half
bettors would be able to capitalize on these lines that have been artificially inflated to account for
public perception.