Sentences with phrase «by sea ice trends»

Not exact matches

The trends revealed by the data were clear: The average albedo in the northern area of the Arctic Ocean, including open water and sea ice, is declining in all summer months (May - August).

Comiso and other climate scientists reject the suggestion that his data set may overestimate the recent trend in Antarctic sea - ice growth — by as much as two - thirds, according to Eisenman's analysis.

Current predictions [5], [6] suggest that trends in sea ice extent will alter in the second half of this century and that the annual average sea ice extent will diminish by 33 %; most of this retreat is expected to occur in winter and spring [5], [6], with attendant risks for emperor penguins.

Changes in the winds around Antarctica therefore change ice - concentration trends around Antarctica [8] by influencing sea - ice production and melt rates [9].

Collectively, these observations can be used to project trends of ocean acidification in higher latitude marine surface waters where inorganic carbon chemistry is largely influenced by sea ice meltwater.

«Environmental scientists have been saying for some time that the global economy is being slowly undermined by environmental trends of human origin, including shrinking forests, expanding deserts, falling water tables, eroding soils, collapsing fisheries, rising temperatures, melting ice, rising seas, and increasingly destructive storms,» 6.

It is difficult to see how a person in the general public should not be concerned by the downward trend of Arctic sea ice volume.

Although a recent downward trend in coverage is clearly visible by naked eye inspection, Goddard invites us to believe there has ``... been no net gain or loss of polar sea ice since records began.»

By forecasting more sea ice this summer, I am going against the grain; the posts here mainly assume a downard trend (though of course one year does not change in trend).

Unfortunately, the tough scientific work to clarify ice and sea trends and dynamics has largely been obscured online by coverage focused on an error on Greenland ice loss that many polar scientists say made it into the new edition of the Times Comprehensive Atlas of the World (that's the British Times, just to be clear).

A significant northward trend (reduction of ice) in the winter - maximum ice edge is apparent, however, and appears to be caused by the gradual warming of sea - surface temperatures in the region (paper available on this if you want it).

The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (whose reports are conservative by nature), and a range of other assessments all conclude with high confidence that — for better or worse — the long - term Arctic trend for summer sea ice is down, given the projected buildup of greenhouse gases and tendency of the Arctic to amplify warming.

Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the surface emitted by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).

Comiso and other climate scientists reject the suggestion that his data set may overestimate the recent trend in Antarctic sea - ice growth — by as much as two - thirds, according to Eisenman's analysis.

Updated, July 23, 1:40 p.m. A new study of methods used to track Antarctic sea ice trends has raised important questions about whether recent increases in ice there are, to a significant extent, an illusion created by flawed analysis of data collected by a series of satellites.

None of the sea - ice specialists I've interviewed since 2000 on Arctic trends ever predicted a straight - line path to an open - water Arctic, but quite a few have stressed the longstanding idea that as white ice retreats, solar energy that would have been reflected back into space is absorbed by the dark sea, with that heat then melting existing ice and shortening the winter frozen season.

iheartheidicullen @ 162: Sorry if my tone was intemperate, but really the SH and NH sea ice trends have been analysed at length online by Tamino and others, over the last year or two, with the clear conclusion that the SH anomaly trend is small (the anomaly at the maximum last year was about 1.5 % of the mean annual maximum, if I remember correctly) and not statistically significant (at the 95 % level, I think), whereas the NH trend is large (tens of percent), long - lived, and statistically very significant indeed.

The past two weeks have not been good for the Arctic and climate change: First, scientists discover that permafrost holds more greenhouse gases than we thought; Second, sea ice melt - off is at its second greatest amount ever and could set a new record by summer's end; Third, new research confirms that the past decade has indeed been the warmest since the Romans occupied Britain, and the trend is for more warming.

remember the arctic sea ice trend remember the kilimanjaro glacier trend à ¯ f the trend presists it'll all be gone by 2050.

Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoIce Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoSea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictosea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictosea ice predictoice predictors.

«Our analyses indicate that the overall sea - ice trend is dominated by increased ice - shelf melt», the Dutch scientists report.

A positive trend for dispersed sea ice extent in the Antarctic in winter amid rising winter temperature in the southern hemisphere is not matched by trends in concentrated sea ice extent and the degree of dispersion and is discounted as spurious.

(08/31/2009) If current melting trends continue, the Arctic Ocean is likely to be free of summer sea ice by 2015, according to research presented at a conference organized by the National Space Institute at Technical University of Denmark, the Danish Meteorological Institute and the Greenland Climate Center.

Generally yes, but there has been a lot of new information learned since the IPCC Third Assessment Report (e.g., on trends in hurricane intensity, the accelerated melting back of Arctic sea ice, the intensifying deterioration of the edges of the Greenland Ice Sheet, etc.) and Gore's presentation of the science has been updated to account for these, drawing from what are the really highly reviewed and high quality papers by leading scientisice, the intensifying deterioration of the edges of the Greenland Ice Sheet, etc.) and Gore's presentation of the science has been updated to account for these, drawing from what are the really highly reviewed and high quality papers by leading scientisIce Sheet, etc.) and Gore's presentation of the science has been updated to account for these, drawing from what are the really highly reviewed and high quality papers by leading scientists.

But on the contrary, the Southern Ocean has warmed by around 0.5 °C in the three decades since satellites began measuring sea ice trends.

Evidence suggests that the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation was driven in part by warm air (air warmed by the dramatic seasonal loss of Arctic sea ice) 9 as well as by changes in snow cover over Eurasia driven by climate change.10 This event is part of an emerging trend in which a warming climate may paradoxically bring colder, snowier winters to northern Europe and the eastern United States.11

The authors used very long control runs of both the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and Hadley Centre climate models (5,000 years for the GFDL model) to assess the probability that the observed and model - predicted trends in Arctic sea ice extent occur by chance as the result of natural climate variability.

[3] An implementation of the diff - of - gaussian filter is presented here: https://climategrog.wordpress.com/2016/09/18/diff-of-gaussian-filter/ [4] The sea - ice area data used in the decadal trend analysis are provided by Cryosphere Today team at U. Illinois.

However there is some important information that needs to be presented related to the global trend of sea ice as measured by satellite since 1979.

If you correct for the discontinuity in the way area is measured, it's undeniable that global sea ice has trended down over the time span monitored by satellites.

Conclusions Recently observed decadal trends in Arctic winter sea ice extent are not well explained by external forcing alone.

2012's sea ice area and extent were already trending low this year, but damage done to the thin and low concentration of ice by this storm almost ensures that 2012 will eclipse 2007 in all categories as the lowest sea ice on record by the time the September low is set.

THERE HAS BEEN A WARMING TREND FROM THE 70s THRU THE LATE 90s,... accompanied by other changes tied to a warming trend (record low arctic sea ice extent & thickness, retreating glaciers, retreating snow lines, warming ocean surface temps, increases in sea height, de-alkalinizing oceTREND FROM THE 70s THRU THE LATE 90s,... accompanied by other changes tied to a warming trend (record low arctic sea ice extent & thickness, retreating glaciers, retreating snow lines, warming ocean surface temps, increases in sea height, de-alkalinizing ocetrend (record low arctic sea ice extent & thickness, retreating glaciers, retreating snow lines, warming ocean surface temps, increases in sea height, de-alkalinizing oceans).

Not only does this low - pressure area, or cyclone, look bigger, more intense and longer - lasting than the one from last year, the ice also seems to be in a weaker state than ever, as evidenced by the fact that 2012 trend lines on both sea ice area and sea ice extent graphs track lower than previous record years, despite weather that until recently would completely stall the decline.

The findings will show that the sharp «hockey blade shape» downward trend in sea ice, while having some natural variability, has been very likely to be PRIMARILY caused by human activity.

Since the tropical oceans have flattened out and solar does have its largest impact on the tropical oceans, I would expect about the same possibly some increase in Arctic sea ice over the next decade Not a consistent increase by any means, but I doubt it will make it to the 2 mkm ^ 2 and will trend towards a 6 million km ^ 2 average which is hardly «ice free».

Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (± 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoIce Service, 4.7 (± 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoSea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictosea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictoice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictosea ice predictoice predictors.

While year - to - year weather conditions, like summer storms, impact the variability of Arctic sea ice cover, the undeniable downward trend can only be explained by human - caused climate change.

After the maximum was reached, the trend line flattened, with sea ice volume going down by a meagre 91 km3 from the 16th to the end of the month, which can clearly be seen on Wipneus» version of the PIOMAS graph:

«In fact, the September sea ice volume is already down 75 % with a trend to zero by September 2016, suggests that the Arctic is heading for complete meltdown, which would be a planetary catastrophe,» Ibid.

The oceans have risen by around 2.5 cm over the last decade, emphasising just how warm the seas and the atmosphere have become already As ice caps glaciers and sea ice show us the trend in rather obvious ways, scientists studying the phenomena have been shocked.

As sea ice declines, it becomes thinner, with less ice build - up over multiple years, and therefore more vulnerable to further melting.15 Models that best match historical trends project northern waters that are virtually ice - free by late summer by the 2030s.25, 26,12 Within the general downward trend in sea ice, there will be time periods with both rapid ice loss and temporary recovery, 27 making it challenging to predict short - term changes in ice conditions.

«There is no doubt that Arctic sea ice extent is trending downwards, with much of that multi-decadal decline in sea ice extent being due to human - induced climate change,» Hoerling told BuzzFeed News by email.

That a simple warming trend throughout the 20th century does not characterise arctic conditions is also confirmed by records of ice cover in the four seas that lie north of Siberia (Kara, Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi); these show clearly that ice variability in these seas is dominated by a low frequency oscillation of frequency 60 ‐ 80 years that «places a strong limitation on our ability to resolve long term trends».

Another indicator of intensifying global warming: The area of Arctic Ocean covered by sea ice, a major influencer of weather for the Northern Hemisphere, continued its multi-year shrinking trend.

Of course, we all know that Arctic sea ice has been on a downward trend since satellite records started in 1979, reversing a growing trend from the 1940s to the 1970s, which was observed by other means by mostly Russian records.

«these show clearly that ice variability in these seas is dominated by a low frequency oscillation of frequency 60 ‐ 80 years that «places a strong limitation on our ability to resolve long term trends».

But I'd bet that the increase in Arctic sea ice reported by Russian studies from the 1940s to the1970s had something to do with the cooling trend over those years, while the sea ice retreat since 1979 had something to do with the more recent warming trend there.

These trends in extreme weather events are accompanied by longer - term changes as well, including surface and ocean temperature increase over recent decades, snow and ice cover decrease and sea level rise.

Note that we computed sea ice — temperature regression coefficients with detrended data and then multiplied these by the trend of the sea ice area to obtain the congruent temperature change.