As NFL games are played weekly, it's important to know what drives line movement to determine whether it's provoked
by sharp bettors or overzealous — and overconfident — square bettors.
Although more spread bettors have taken Indiana, large wagers (presumably placed
by sharp bettors) have taken Wisconsin to cause this 1.5 - point line movement.
That indicates that more bettors have taken the chalk, but larger wagers (often placed
by sharp bettors or betting syndicates) have taken the underdog.
Large wagers aren't always placed
by sharp bettors, but it's usually a strong indicator.
With limited preparation time and an inability to pay close attention to every ongoing game, oddsmakers are more likely to make mistakes that can be exploited
by sharp bettors.
In fact, according to our Sharp Action Report (available to all Sportsbook Insider subscribers), Alabama is now listed as one of the Top 5 sides played
by sharp bettors for today's action.
Oddsmakers quite literally put their money where their mouth is, and any error in handicapping a game can be exploited
by sharp bettors for significant losses.
The following concepts represent some of the most lucrative historical betting trends and are the same tools used
by sharp bettors to turn consistent profits.
This indicates that large wagers (presumably placed
by sharper bettors) have taken the Raptors.
However, it appears that larger bets being made
by sharper bettors have been placed on Kentucky.
That indicated that several large wagers (likely placed
by sharper bettors) had taken Alabama.
That indicates that large wagers (presumably placed
by sharper bettors) have been taking the home underdog.
However, you'll see that the money is nearly split 50/50, meaning that larger bets being made
by sharper bettors are coming in on Cincy.
This indicates that large wagers (often placed
by sharper bettors) have taken Gonzaga plus the points.
Not exact matches
Oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book
by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side but rather shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception and then allow their
sharpest bettors to shape the line.
In games where the favorite won
by 3,
sharp NFL
bettors who shopped for the best line to lay -2.5 or take the +3.5 turned potential pushes into wins.
In David Purdum's recent article at ESPN Chalk, he reports that large bets
by square
bettors taking the short trip from California have been on the Dodgers, but sportsbooks expect
sharp money to come in on the Astros for both game 1 and the series.
That means a $ 100 / game
bettor would have earned over $ 30,000
by following this one
sharp money indicator.
By utilizing
sharp money indicators like reverse line movement, contrarian
bettors have been able to maximize their profits.
In a day headlined
by the start of college bowl season, two Saturday NFL games, and intriguing NBA and college hoops matchups,
sharp bettors have looked elsewhere to dig up a hidden gem on the...
The other way
bettors can easily identify
sharp money is
by looking for reverse line movement, which is when a line moves against our public betting percentages.
With only 44 % of
bettors backing the South Dakota State, it's clear that the move is triggered
by sharp action.
Just because the weekend will be dominated
by championship games for the Power 5 conferences doesn't mean that
sharp bettors aren't looking for value elsewhere.
That means $ 100 / game
bettors would have earned $ 6,445
by following these two
sharp moves.
This goes to show you that the public often overvalues star players and that
sharp bettors can capitalize
by not overreacting to an injury.
By examining public betting trends,
sharp money indicators and betting system matches, I have been able to identify which sides and totals offered value to
bettors.
This reverse line movement is an indicator that
sharp bettors have essentially «sold on good news»
by allowing the sports media to pump up the perception of Wichita State among fans and recreational
bettors, then buying back the inflated point - spread value with Dayton.
By examining historical trends, public betting trends and
sharp money indicators (like steam and reverse line movement), I was able to pinpoint which team was offering contrarian value to
bettors.
-- Yesterday we published an article detailing how
sharp bettors can build their bankroll
by following reverse line movement in the MLB.
By examining these top trends and
sharp money indicators, we have been able to pinpoint the top value plays for contrarian
bettors.
Sharp bettors wait for these market overreactions and take advantage
by betting against the Pacific Time Zone teams, knowing they only cover the spread at a rate of 29.6 %.
By following
sharp money, tracking profitable historical trends and utilizing a flat betting strategy with a unit size representing 2 - 4 % of your bankroll,
bettors will have success in the long haul.
-- Michigan State - Oregon was
by far the most bet game of the day with public
bettors on MSU (2.5:1 ticket count according to David Purdum) but
sharper money on Oregon.
By looking at historically profitable trends and
sharp money indicators like steam moves and reverse line movement, we're able to diagnose which games are offering value to
bettors.
Over the past few years we have published a number of articles explaining how ranked teams are typically overrated
by bettors, which can create excellent opportunity for
sharp bettors.
NFL lines are typically released on Sunday evening when the late games are still in play, and
sharp bettors will typically hammer those lines immediately if there's an obvious mistake made
by the oddsmakers.
While recreational
bettors can't get enough of the «over»,
sharp bettors see this as an opportunity to buyback the public overreaction
by playing the «under».
Discover how
sharp MLB
bettors can profit
by betting on late season overs at Coors Field.
This is an indicator that
sharp money (big bets placed
by professional
bettors or betting syndicates) has come down on Kansas State, causing reverse - line movement.
Contrarian
bettors can easily capitalize one market overreactions
by fading the public, but that's an especially profitable strategy in heavily bet games with limited involvement from
sharp bettors.
Looking at our public betting percentages and Bet Signals data, we can conclude that the movement has been caused
by one - sided action on the Jets, from both
sharp and public
bettors.
Although Washington is being ignored
by the majority of
bettors, the
sharp money indicators on Boston should cause contrarian
bettors to think twice before fading the public.
Sportsbooks reacted
by dropping the line -2 to account for the one - sided action, creating enough value for
sharp bettors to buy - back the Demon Deacons at a discounted price.
It's clear from the percentages that both
sharp and public
bettors felt that the Cubs» marathon game hurt their chances in tonight's game, and that was compounded
by the fact that they're playing a mile above sea - level.
-- Last week we published an article detailing how
sharp MLB
bettors could profit
by betting late season overs at Coors Field.
By examining some of the top historical betting trends and identifying
sharp money indicators, we inform
bettors on how they can capitalize on the predictable behavior of casual
bettors.
By examining some of the top historical betting trends and identifying
sharp money indicators, we can inform
bettors on how they can capitalize on public perception.
For the purposes of this column, we consider public money to be wagers made
by recreational
bettors as opposed to those made
by professionals, or «
sharps.»
Casual
bettors liked Golden State -9 after winning the opening game of the series, 113 - 92, but the pros took San Antonio, as evidenced
by reverse line movement and Steam Move Bet Signals triggered at Pinnacle — a
sharp sportsbook.
Sharp bettors don't care about the prestige of the tournament, only the potential value offered
by soft betting lines.