Additionally, this line movement seems to be driven completely
by square bettors as there have been no betting systems triggered on this game.
If you're truly looking for value betting on Super Bowl futures, don't look for these trendy teams whose prices are being over-inflated
by square bettors and don't overreact to free agency hype.
Although it does not track reverse line movement like our earlier spread system, it shows how WNBA bettors can take advantage of lines that are artificially inflated
by square bettors.
As always we're going to fade the public, take the value created
by square bettors and bet the road dog in this NFC South matchup.
In David Purdum's recent article at ESPN Chalk, he reports that large bets
by square bettors taking the short trip from California have been on the Dodgers, but sportsbooks expect sharp money to come in on the Astros for both game 1 and the series.
Not exact matches
By capitalizing on overreactions and the predictable actions of casual
bettors (sometimes known as
squares), a contrarian can exploit mispriced or artificially inflated lines.
Although sportsbooks know this information and build it into line, these «
square»
bettors often create artificial value
by heavily betting the favorite and forcing sportsbooks to shade their lines to encourage action on the other side (typically the underdog).
With public
bettors now able to cash in on Notre Dame if they win
by two touchdowns, I don't expect many
squares leaning towards Wake Forest unless the line moves back to 14 or higher.
SportsInsights uses proprietary information and sportsbook contacts to highlight plays that have excessive «
Square» action — and thus should yield value by «betting against» the square be
Square» action — and thus should yield value
by «betting against» the
square be
square bettors.
Square bettors tend to overwhelmingly root for winning teams and high - scoring games, and sportsbooks account for these tendencies
by shading favorites and overs.
Square bettors tend to overreact to recent events, so opportunistic
bettors can find tremendous value
by taking teams following a loss.
The whole concept of betting against the public is based on the idea that «
square» or uninformed public
bettors create artificial line value
by pounding one side — typically the favorite or the over.
Although it's very common to see casual
bettors take the underdog when two ranked teams
square off,
bettors are clearly deterred
by the Sooners» Week 1 loss to Houston.
If too many
square bettors load up on one side (typically caused
by an overreaction to recent results), oddsmakers will need to even the weight
by adjusting the line and encouraging action on their opponent.
Square bettors are greatly influenced
by recent events, and that tendency is magnified during the postseason where seemingly every play is viewed under a microscope.
Over the past few years, we have constantly explained that
bettors can take advantage of public perception
by betting against ranked teams — but what happens when two ranked teams
square off?
These trends offer an excellent overview of which teams are being hammered
by «
square»
bettors.
Since
square bettors typically overreact to recent events, one of the easiest ways to take advantage of public perception is
by taking teams following a loss or fading teams following a win.
Oddsmakers can accurately anticipate one - sided action from public
bettors, and they react
by shading lines to force «
square»
bettors to take bad numbers when playing the popular side of a game.
Squares overwhelmingly bet the favorite, and oddsmakers adjust
by shading their lines and forcing casual
bettors to take bad numbers when they play the popular side of a game.
As NFL games are played weekly, it's important to know what drives line movement to determine whether it's provoked
by sharp
bettors or overzealous — and overconfident —
square bettors.
Square bettors are prone to overreacting to recent events, and we are consistently able to find value
by capitalizing on public perception.
Oddsmakers know
square bettors are influenced
by the polls and inflate the lines.