Oinas, V., A.A. Lacis, D. Rind, D.T. Shindell, and J.E. Hansen, 2001: Radiative cooling
by stratospheric water vapor: Big differences in GCM results.
Not exact matches
The stratopsheric cooling may be caused
by the tropospheric
water vapor (see figure 3 of http://www.springerlink.com/content/6677gr5lx8421105/fulltext.pdf)-- but in that figure
water vapor is fixed only above sigma = 0.14 (~ 140 hPa), so the cooling may also be caused
by the increase in lower
stratospheric water vapor.
But then there's feedbacks within the stratosphere (
water vapor), which would increase the
stratospheric heating
by upward radiation from below, as well as add some feedback to the downward flux at TRPP that the upward flux at TRPP would have to respond to via warming below TRPP.
Perhaps this is because of the band - widenning (of the type refered to above) effect, with the initial introduction of some CO2 causing some upper level warming (enhanced
by the shorter wavelengths of the CO2 band relative to
stratospheric water vapor given the cold temperatures (lack of importance of the ~ 5 to 7 micron band -LRB-?)
Warming must occur below the tropopause to increase the net LW flux out of the tropopause to balance the tropopause - level forcing; there is some feedback at that point as the stratosphere is «forced»
by the fraction of that increase which it absorbs, and a fraction of that is transfered back to the tropopause level — for an optically thick stratosphere that could be significant, but I think it may be minor for the Earth as it is (while CO2 optical thickness of the stratosphere alone is large near the center of the band, most of the wavelengths in which the stratosphere is not transparent have a more moderate optical thickness on the order of 1 (mainly from
stratospheric water vapor;
stratospheric ozone makes a contribution over a narrow wavelength band, reaching somewhat larger optical thickness than
stratospheric water vapor)(in the limit of an optically thin stratosphere at most wavelengths where the stratosphere is not transparent, changes in the net flux out of the stratosphere caused
by stratospheric warming or cooling will tend to be evenly split between upward at TOA and downward at the tropopause; with greater optically thickness over a larger fraction of optically - significant wavelengths, the distribution of warming or cooling within the stratosphere will affect how such a change is distributed, and it would even be possible for
stratospheric adjustment to have opposite effects on the downward flux at the tropopause and the upward flux at TOA).
By the same token if I look at polar regions with the concentration of frontal changes there seems to be a rapid rise of tropospheric
water vapor invading the
stratospheric range.
The article also identifies the problem with
stratospheric water vapor eg Solomon which suggests that the decrease in SWV has reduced the radiative forcing
by around.1 wm ^ 2.
Some of the mid-latitude increase of
stratospheric water vapor (1 % per year) over the period of 1980 - 2006 can be explained
by the increase of atmospheric methane, but not all.
Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased
by about 10 % after the year 2000.
«
stratospheric water vapor probably increased between 1980 and 2000, which would have enhanced the decadal rate of surface warming during the 1990s
by about 30 % as compared to estimates neglecting this change.
Everytime an author publishes something different from what the IPCC published in their last report — from Solomon et al. on
stratospheric water vapor trends to all the new hockey sticks post the so - called «iconic» Mann hockeystick, each of which is somewhat different, to all the GWP - replacement metrics proposed
by Fuglesvedt et al., to practically any paper published in the scientific literature or any talk given at AGU... scientists don't make their name
by publishing papers that say, «yup, we're just saying exactly what the IPCC said.
Stratospheric water vapor decreasing temperature over 2000 — 9
by about 25 % favored
by Roy Spencer, ignored
by all warmists
Tropical lower
stratospheric water vapor amounts decreased
by roughly 0.5 parts per million (ppm) around 2000 and remained low through 2009.
Abstract
Stratospheric water vapor concentrations decreased
by about 10 % after the year 2000.
The figure below, from a paper in Science
by Susan Soloman and her colleagues, shows a notable decline in
stratospheric (high - atmosphere)
water vapor after the year 2000.
The level of scientific understanding of radiative forcing is ranked
by the AR4 (Table 2.11) as high only for the long - lived greenhouse gases, but is ranked as low for solar irradiance, aerosol effects,
stratospheric water vapor from CH4, and jet contrails.
Lower
stratospheric cooling is mainly caused
by the effects of ozone depletion with a possible contribution from increased
stratospheric water vapor and greenhouse gases increase.
Ozone changes in 2055, when the projected equivalent chlorine loading returns to its 1980 value, show the positive impact of
stratospheric cooling
by GHGs and the negative impact of
water vapor increases, which outweigh the cooling.
The high level of interest in scientific circles in upper tropospheric (and
stratospheric)
water vapor is because it is easy to demonstrate
by theory and measurement that small amounts of
water vapor at high altitudes have disproportionate effects.