In real terms, stock performance over time can be mostly
explained by inflation rates alone, even if you regard yourself as a particularly good stock picker.
In real terms, stock performance over time can be mostly explained
by inflation rates alone, even if you regard yourself as a particularly good stock picker.
The 4 % rule — initially withdrawing 4 % of retirement savings and then increasing that dollar amount
annually by the inflation rate — has long been touted as the go - to strategy if you want a high level of assurance your nest egg will last at least 30 years.
To do that, many advisers recommended that retirees adopt «the 4 % rule «-- that is, withdraw 4 % of your nest egg's value the first year of retirement and then increase the dollar value of that
withdraw by the inflation rate each year.
For example, go to a tool like T. Rowe Price's Retirement Income Calculator, plug in a $ 1 million portfolio and assume an initial 4 %, or $ 40,000, withdrawal that will subsequently be
adjusted by the inflation rate, and the calculator will estimate that there's roughly an 80 % chance that your nest egg will be able to sustain that level of withdrawals for at least 30 years, or, if you retire at 65, until you reach age 95, a reasonable planning assumption given today's long lifespans.
For years many retirees followed the 4 % rule — that is, they withdrew 4 % of their savings the first year retirement and then increased that initial dollar
draw by the inflation rate to maintain spending power.
A comment about inflation: This generally assumes a constant - dollar and I'm not sure I could do everything you're assuming around inflation such as have the accumulation payment
grow by inflation rate.
What you'll find is if you start out with a relatively modest withdrawal rate — say, an initial 3 % to 4 % withdrawal that you then
increase by the inflation rate each year to maintain purchasing power — there's a good chance (roughly 80 % or so) that your savings will last 30 or more years.
The idea was that if you withdraw 4 % of your nest egg's value the first year of retirement and then increase that dollar amount each subsequent
year by the inflation rate, your savings will last at least 30 years.
Assuming you want your nest egg to last at least 30 years, that typically means starting with an initial withdrawal rate of 3 % to 4 % of assets — or $ 15,000 to $ 20,000 from a $ 500,000 nest egg — and then adjusting that dollar amount
annually by the inflation rate to maintain purchasing power.
But if you want to have a reasonable shot of your savings supporting you through a retirement of 30 or more years, you should probably limit yourself to an initial withdrawal of roughly 3 % to 4 %, and then adjust the resulting dollar
amount by the inflation rate each year to maintain your purchasing power.
After that, allocations to districts would be bumped up
by the inflation rate.