So it's utterly unremarkable to find 49 people, including astronauts and engineers, who would publicly reject James Hansen's view of the dangers posed
by unabated emissions of carbon dioxide, or the Obama administration's approach to the space agency's research programs, news releases and other forms of public output on climate, which is markedly different than that of the last Bush administration.
Why does «same as it ever was» keep coming to mind when examining the responses of America's elected «leaders» to durable challenges — whether confronting deficits and the debt, the glaring lack of alternatives to oil and the risks posed
by unabated emissions of greenhouse gases.
Not exact matches
At least two studies published since 2010 — one report from the United Nations Environment Programme in 2011 and a follow - up published in Science last year — suggested that significantly reducing the
emissions of soot and methane could trim human - caused warming
by at least 0.5 °C (0.9 ° F)
by 2050, compared with an increase of about 1 °C if those
emissions continued
unabated.
Both had been created
by running the NCAR - based Community Earth System Model 15 times, with one assuming that greenhouse gas
emissions remain
unabated and the other assuming that society reduces
emissions.
The authors estimate that if globe - warming
emission continue
unabated, fuel capacities and payload weights will have to be reduced
by as much as 4 percent on the hottest days for some aircraft.
For example, under the «business - as - usual» climate scenario (called RCP8.5
by the UN IPCC, which assumes that
emissions continue to grow
unabated), there is a 50 per cent chance that local sea - level rise will exceed 22 centimeters at Oslo.
This choice, they say, is the sea level rise «locked in»
by the two warming scenarios: the target of two degrees Celsius vs. the sea level rise associated with
unabated emissions and four degrees warming
by the end of the century.
Projections based on 29 climate models suggest that the number of high wildfire potential days each year could increase
by nearly 50 percent
by 2050 if greenhouse gas
emissions continue
unabated.
Only if this is wrong, and the true value is lower, can we escape the fact that
unabated emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to the warming projected
by the IPCC.
When
emissions continue
unabated (RCP8.5 scenario), the IPCC expects 12 % to 54 % decline
by 2100 (see also the current probabilistic projections of Schleussner et al. 2014).
And of course there's the hard reality that the risks posed
by an
unabated rise in greenhouse - gas
emissions are still mainly somewhere and someday while our attention, as individuals and communities, is mostly on the here and now.
Updates appended A new analysis of Antarctica's vast ice sheet in a world heated
by unabated greenhouse gas
emissions from fossil fuel burning comes to a stark, if unsurprising, conclusion: Burn it all, lose it all.
And there's been plenty of fine reporting for decades on the growing risks posed
by unabated greenhouse gas
emissions.
But the plausible effects of
unabated CO2
emissions are 3 - 4C rise
by the end of the century (with the Arctic rising twice this?).
Further climate change is expected to intensify these effects on North Sea plankton, cod, and marine ecosystems.7
By 2100, scientists estimate that average world sea surface temperatures could rise as much as 5.4 ° F (3 ° C) if our heat - trapping
emissions continue
unabated.13, 14
As the world's largest store of freshwater, Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a meter of sea level rise
by 2100 and more than 15 metres
by 2500, if
emissions continue
unabated.
With
unabated emissions, the IPCC estimates that
by the year 2300, global sea levels will rise
by 1 - 3 meters.
By 2100, models project that many regions — including, the Mediterranean, Southwest US and southern Africa — are likely to get drier should greenhouse gas
emissions continue
unabated.
What about natural variability (which is blamed
by Met Office for the current «pause», despite
unabated GHG
emissions)?
With
unabated emissions (and not only for the highest scenario), the IPCC estimates that
by the year 2300 global sea levels will rise
by 1 — 3 meters.
However you slice it, lolwot, there is a current «pause» (or «standstill») in the warming of the «globally and annually averaged land and sea surface temperature anomaly» (used
by IPCC to measure «global warming»), despite
unabated human GHG
emissions and CO2 levels (Mauna Loa) reaching record levels.
Many scientists estimate that if greenhouse - gas
emissions continue
unabated, the average temperature could increase
by four degrees Celsius or more
by the end of the century — a scenario that might, as Elizabeth Kolbert wrote recently in The New Yorker, «transform the globe into a patchwork of drowned cities, desertifying croplands, and collapsing ecosystems.»
If
emissions were to continue
unabated and global temperature increases exceed 4 °C, increased rainfall would further enhance the risk of floods
by raising river levels, which, combined with sea level rise, could impact as many as 12 million people in Bangladesh, especially if a storm surge from a tropical cyclone compounded these effects.
Another recent study projects that with
unabated greenhouse gas
emissions, oxygen lows will fall below their current range
by midcentury.
New research suggested that if high levels of
emissions continue
unabated, sea levels could rise
by nearly twice as much as expected
by the end of this century.
Modeling shows that if
emissions of climate - warming greenhouse gases continue
unabated, temperatures could rise 4 degrees C above preindustrial levels
by the end of the century.
The ocean's absorption of anthropogenic CO2 has already resulted in more than a 30 % increase in the acidity of ocean surface waters, at a rate likely faster than anything experienced in the past 300 million years, and ocean acidity could increase
by 150 % to 200 %
by the end of the century if CO2
emissions continue
unabated (Orr et al. 2005; Feely et al. 2009; Hönisch et al. 2012)
If the
emissions that cause global warming continue
unabated, scientists expect the amount of rainfall during the heaviest precipitation events across country to increase more than 40 percent
by the end of the century.