In 2008, climate change sceptic Roger Pielke Sr said this: «Global warming, as diagnosed
by upper ocean heat content has not been occurring since 2004».
Not exact matches
Last week there was a paper
by Smith and colleagues in Science that tried to fill in those early years, using a model that initialises the
heat content from the
upper ocean — with the idea that the structure of those anomalies control the «weather» progression over the next few years.
This is supported
by historic observations (Figure 1), which shows roughly decade - long hiatus periods in
upper ocean heat content during the 1960s to 1970s, and the 1980s to 1990s.
One thing I would have liked to see in the paper is a quantitative side -
by - side comparison of sea - surface temperatures and
upper ocean heat content; all the paper says is that only «a small amount of cooling is observed at the surface, although much less than the cooling at depth» though they do report that it is consistent with 2 - yr cooling SST trend — but again, no actual data analysis of the SST trend is reported.
If you take the amount of crude oil extracted since 1850 (estimates vary, but maybe 200 billion tonnes = 200 * (10 ^ 9) * (10 ^ 3) kg) and multiply
by the energy density of crude oil (~ 50MJ / kg) the result comes out at about 10 ^ 22 J which is an order of magnitude lower than the increase in
ocean heat content in the
upper 700m since the 1950s (~ 10 ^ 23J).
In the present study, satellite altimetric height and historically available in situ temperature data were combined using the method developed
by Willis et al. [2003], to produce global estimates of
upper ocean heat content, thermosteric expansion, and temperature variability over the 10.5 - year period from the beginning of 1993 through mid-2003...
But that explanation is contradicted
by a recent evaluation of Arctic
Ocean heat content (Wunsch and Heimbach 2014 discussed here) which reveals the
upper 700 meters of the Arctic
Ocean have been cooling.
At that point you try and measure changes in
heat content of the
upper ocean, more precisely, the flow of energy into and out of the
upper ocean by measuring the change in
heat content over time.
The argument that this change it is somehow driven
by energy reservoirs in the deep
ocean is clearly flawed: the deep
ocean would be * cooling * as it lost energy to the
upper ocean, but deep
ocean heat content is increasing at the same time as OHC in the
upper ocean is increasing.
These trends are also accompanied
by rising sea levels and
upper ocean heat content over similar multi-decadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic.
We also find that H is predicted with significantly more skill
by DePreSys than
by NoAssim (Fig. 1B), and we conclude that the improvement of DePreSys over NoAssim in predicting Ts on interannual - to - decadal time scales results mainly from initializing
upper ocean heat content.