The well - documented surface temperature rise since 1850 can be viewed as but the most recent 60 percent of a warming of about 0.8 °C since the 17th century (Fig. 3d), interrupted periodically
by volcanic effects.
Not exact matches
Benca irradiated 18 - inch - tall, bonsai - like pines with UV - B dosages up to 13 times stronger than on Earth today, simulating the
effects of ozone depletion caused
by immense
volcanic eruptions that occurred at the end of the Permian Period.
Proposals to reduce the
effects of global warming
by imitating
volcanic eruptions could have a devastating
effect on global regions prone to either tumultuous storms or prolonged drought, new research has shown.
To determine whether declining pollutants deserve credit for the recovery, the researchers used a 3D atmospheric model to separate the
effects of the chemicals from those of weather, which can affect ozone loss through winds and temperature, and
volcanic eruptions, which deplete ozone
by pumping sulfate particles into the upper atmosphere.
The atmospheric
effects of
volcanic eruptions were confirmed
by the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, in the Philippines.
Interestingly, some scientists argue that without the cooling
effect of major
volcanic eruptions such as El Chichn and Mount Pinatubo, global warming
effects caused
by human activities would have been far more substantial.
This may have been triggered
by a 250 - million - year lull in
volcanic activity, which would have meant less carbon dioxide being pumped into the atmosphere, and a reduced greenhouse
effect.
The after -
effects of this
volcanic outburst are still being felt today, as earthquakes like the 5.8 magnitude quake centered near Mineral, Va. in 2011 still rumble through the faults weakened
by the volcanoes.
In the study entitled «The
effect of giant lateral collapses on magma pathways and the location of volcanism,» authored
by F. Maccaferri, N. Richter and T. Walter, all working at GFZ, in section 2.1 (Physics of earthquakes and volcanoes), the propagation path of magmatic intrusions underneath a
volcanic edifice has been simulated
by means of a mathematical model.
Once the ice melted, driven
by a runaway greenhouse
effect caused
by volcanic eruptions, it formed a freshwater layer up to 2 kilometres thick.
A few years ago, he was trying to get people to take to his idea of how to mitigate global warming
by pumping sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, mirroring the cooling
effect caused
by large
volcanic eruptions.
It is also well known that
volcanic activity has a cooling influence, and as is well documented
by the
effects of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo
volcanic eruption.
Jupiter's giant, spectacular polar aurorae are created
by the
effects of the magnetic field of the planet combining with gases from the
volcanic moon Io.
Human induced trend has two components, namely (a) greenhouse
effect [this includes global and local / regional component] and (b) non-greenhouse
effect [local / regional component]-- according to IPCC (a) is more than half of global average temperature anomaly wherein it also includes component of
volcanic activities, etc that comes under greenhouse
effect; and (b) contribution is less than half — ecological changes component but this is biased positive side
by urban - heat - island
effect component as the met network are concentrated in urban areas and rural - cold - island
effect is biased negative side as the met stations are sparsely distributed though rural area is more than double to urban area.
So,
by all means, attack me personally, change the subject, blow smoke, shift the goalposts, nitpick, do anything to divert from the obvious fact that the widespread claim regarding the warming
effect of a lack of
volcanic activity is simply wrong.
It is to be noted here that there is no necessary contradiction between forecast expectations of (a) some renewed (or continuation of) slight cooling of world climate for a few decades to come, e.g., from
volcanic or solar activity variations; (b) an abrupt warming due to the
effect of increasing carbon dioxide, lasting some centuries until fossil fuels are exhausted and a while thereafter; and this followed in turn
by (c) a glaciation lasting (like the previous ones) for many thousands of years.»
Putting my geologist's hat on, it is certainly plausable that (for instance) the passage of a low pressure system could bring forward an explosive
volcanic eruption
by a few hours; but extra precipitation reaching a magma chamber, or just lubricating faults around the chamber would be a bigger
effect.
I say usually, since there are cases such as the trees flattened
by the Tunguska impact, or buried
by volcanic ash, that quite obviously recorded direct
effects these event.
Low
volcanic activity (as eruptions can have a cooling
effect by blocking out the sun).»
Probably this
effect is usually masked
by variations in anthropogenic,
volcanic or biogenic aerosols, and is revealed only in Antarctica where other signals are quiet.
Some longer - term
effects may remain after several consecutive eruptions, but even then, the 0.1 K cooling
by volcanic eruptions over the past 600 years (0.3 K modeled over the past 100 years, see fig. 1 on this page) seems rather high...
REMOVING THE LINEAR
EFFECTS OF ENSO AND VOLCANIC AEROSOLS HELP TO SHOW THE TIMING OF THE WARMING Many papers and blog posts that attempt to prove the existence of anthropogenic global warming remove the obvious linear effects of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and of stratospheric aerosols discharged by explosive volcanic eru
EFFECTS OF ENSO AND
VOLCANIC AEROSOLS HELP TO SHOW THE TIMING OF THE WARMING Many papers and blog posts that attempt to prove the existence of anthropogenic global warming remove the obvious linear effects of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and of stratospheric aerosols discharged by explosive volcanic er
VOLCANIC AEROSOLS HELP TO SHOW THE TIMING OF THE WARMING Many papers and blog posts that attempt to prove the existence of anthropogenic global warming remove the obvious linear
effects of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and of stratospheric aerosols discharged by explosive volcanic eru
effects of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and of stratospheric aerosols discharged
by explosive
volcanic er
volcanic eruptions.
University of Alabama - Huntsville climate scientists John Christy and Richard McNider found that
by removing the climate
effects of
volcanic eruptions early on in the satellite temperature record showed virtually no change in the rate of warming since the early 1990s.
These were intriguing, as well as highly speculative: first the possibility of deliberately using additional targeted aerosol injection to stimulate coagulation of the particles in the
volcanic aerosol; mitigating its
effects by causing the particles to drop out of the atmosphere more swiftly.
Some models include
volcanic effects by simply perturbing the incoming shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere, while others simulate explicitly the radiative
effects of the aerosols in the stratosphere.
It could be a relatively cheap, effective and quick way to cool the planet
by mimicking the natural
effects on climate of large
volcanic eruptions, but scientists concede there could be dramatic and dangerous side
effects that they don't know about.
The models currently assume a generally static global energy budget with relatively little internal system variability so that measurable changes in the various input and output components can only occur from external forcing agents such as changes in the CO2 content of the air caused
by human emissions or perhaps temporary after
effects from
volcanic eruptions, meteorite strikes or significant changes in solar power output.
Results of the detection and attribution analysis shows that these declines are attributable to the anthropogenic forcing, which is dominated
by the
effect of increases in greenhouse gas concentration, and that they are not caused
by natural forcing due to
volcanic activity and solar variability combined.
Lets look at the short term CO2 growth rate change due to temperature change and notice that the fudged record does not track growth rate change as well as the charts do here: http://www.biomind.de/realCO2/ When I try to understand why the CO2 levels may have been kept low
by the LONG
effects of
volcanic activity as well as Krakatoa in 1883 I see a VE6 in 1902 and another in 1912 but then none that large until 1991 and I do not remember it being anything like the descriptions of Krakatoa.
«A climate pattern may come in the form of a regular cycle, like the diurnal cycle or the seasonal cycle; a quasi periodic event, like El Niño; or a highly irregular event, such as a
volcanic winter... A mode of variability is a climate pattern with identifiable characteristics, specific regional
effects, and often oscillatory behavior... the mode of variability with the greatest
effect on climates worldwide is the seasonal cycle, followed
by El Niño - Southern Oscillation, followed
by thermohaline circulation.»
Led
by Dr. James E. Hansen from 1981 to 2013, research at GISS emphasized a broad study of global change, which is an interdisciplinary initiative addressing natural and man - made changes in our environment that occur on various time scales — from one - time forcings such as
volcanic explosions, to seasonal / annual
effects such as El Niño, and on up to the millennia of ice ages — and that affect the habitability of our planet.
By scaling the solar and
volcanic activity, they simulated an unknown atmospheric amplification
effect.
The complexity of radiative - dynamical response forced
by volcanic impacts suggests that it is important to calculate aerosol radiative
effects interactively within the model rather than prescribe them (Andronova et al., 1999; Broccoli et al., 2003).
I always believed that the oceans were an important element in localised weather conditions over the short term but feel that relatively sudden shifts in climate occur through external forcings such as
volcanic eruptions, meteor strike and the
effects of changes in cosmic rays and sun spot activity, which are, unfortunately, all chaotic
by nature and unpredictable.
A fairer comparsion would involve also adjusting the observations to account for the
effects of internal variablity (e.g.
by regression analysis to remove the
effects of ENSO and
volcanic forcings which the models do not include).
Instead of responding only to the cooler temperatures, the tree rings also included signals from reduced light availability (from the shading
effect of
volcanic aerosols) and the two
effects together produced a signal greater than what would have been produced
by cooler temperatures alone.
Possible explanations advanced for the slowdown include the
effect of small
volcanic eruptions, the absorption of extra heat
by the oceanic depths and the juxtaposition of two natural ocean cycles.
They range from mimicking the
effects of large
volcanic eruptions
by releasing sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere, to deploying giant mirrors in space to deflect the sun's rays.
The rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration is induced
by a variation in the unquantified undersea
volcanic sulphur emission which causes a known
effect on the carbon cycle.
As they stand at present the models assume a generally static global energy budget with relatively little internal system variability so that measurable changes in the various input and output components can only occur from external forcing agents such as changes in the CO2 content of the air caused
by human emissions or perhaps temporary after
effects from
volcanic eruptions, meteorite strikes or significant changes in solar power output.
The principle behind the idea is that high - altitude aerosols would cool the planet's surface
by reflecting solar energy back into space, mimicking the
effect of huge
volcanic eruptions.
Forster et al. (2007) described four mechanisms
by which
volcanic forcing influences climate: RF due to aerosol — radiation interaction; differential (vertical or horizontal) heating, producing gradients and changes in circulation; interactions with other modes of circulation, such as El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and ozone depletion with its
effects on stratospheric heating, which depends on anthropogenic chlorine (stratospheric ozone would increase with a
volcanic eruption under low - chlorine conditions).
Because of the too - high sensitivity they also over-predict
volcanic cooling
effects, but the AR5 assumed forcings minimize that problem
by halving
volcanic aerosol forcing over previously used (and in the case of Pinatubo, observed) values.
In the real world, forcings (as estimated
by GISS and not including
volcanic effects) increased at 0.36 W / m2 per decade (1990 to 2003).
Climate engineering: To counter the
effects of heat - trapping greenhouse gases, some experts have proposed artificially cooling the planet
by injecting sulfates into the stratosphere, which would mimic the
effects of a major
volcanic eruption.
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