On the basis of the above two charts it seems that the global background trend in stratosphere and troposphere is not significantly affected
by volcanic events or individual El Nino events.
Not exact matches
Catastrophes can be caused
by various natural
events, including, among others, hurricanes, tornadoes and other windstorms, earthquakes, hail, wildfires, severe winter weather, floods, tsunamis,
volcanic eruptions and other naturally occurring
events, such as solar flares.
The first 110,000 annual layers of snow in that ice core (GISP2) have been visually counted and corroborated
by two to three different and independent methods as well as
by correlation with
volcanic eruptions and other datable
events.
The second
event was a paper published
by Cole - Dai and two colleagues titled «Ice Core Evidence for an Explosive Tropical
Volcanic Eruption 6 Years Preceding Tambora.»
By contrast,
volcanic eruptions occurring in the 2,000 years before that can not be dated reliably, while the dates of even older
volcanic events can be determined relatively accurately using the C14 method.
(The five previous extinction
events all came before the evolution of Homo sapiens, apparently triggered
by a cataclysmic
event or combination of
events, such as a fall in sea level, an asteroid impact,
volcanic activity.)
Beyond human activity, tropical sea surface temperatures further back in time are affected
by volcanic eruptions, changes in the intensity of sunlight and natural
events like El Niño.
You'd love to actually find evidence of that
event in the geological record, but on Earth the early record was destroyed
by volcanic and tectonic processes.
Tsunamis triggered
by point - source
events such as
volcanic collapses or submarine landslides are not likely to have as wide an impact because the waves appear to dissipate quickly with distance.
By measuring the abundance of an isotope of the noble gas argon in the rock or its crystals, Gazel and his colleague Michael Kunk of the U.S. Geological Survey found that the magma was much younger than the last known
volcanic event on the East Coast — which occurred when the supercontinent of Pangaea slowly pulled apart into North America, Africa and South America some 200 million years ago, forming the Atlantic Ocean in the process.
More than 70 percent of all
volcanic activity on Earth occurs on the seafloor, but details of these
events are largely hidden from view
by seawater.
To help solve this issue, two deep ice cores were drilled at the remote dome summits Dome Fuji (DF) and EPICA Dome C (EDC) in Antarctica and were subsequently synchronized in time
by matching identical
volcanic events.
Gases spewed
by similar
volcanic outpourings have been linked to other major extinction
events.
The
volcanic events associated with these intervals caused global weather and climate phenomena and are often used
by climate modelers as well to understand
volcanic sulfate loading on the climate.
The team determined that the basalts from Baffin Island, formed
by a 60 - million - year - old eruption from the mantle hot - spot currently located beneath Iceland, and the Ontong - Java Plateau, which was formed
by an enormous
volcanic event about 120 million years ago, contain slightly more tungsten - 182 than other young
volcanic rocks.
Spikes in temperature are caused
by major
volcanic events, which push sulfur dioxide and other aerosols into the lower stratosphere.
Zooming in on the period after 1970, one sees a record of largely unabated warming, with temperatures increasing steadily accompanied
by some short - term variability driven
by El Niño and La Niña
events, and also
by major
volcanic eruptions like Pinatubo in 1992.
The long timescales (even ignoring the «Earth system» responses like ice sheets and vegetation) are not easy to get at in the instrumental record or
by studying «abrupt forcing»
events like
volcanic eruptions.
What is your level of confidence in the prediction made
by GISS: «barring the unlikely
event of a large
volcanic eruption, a record global temperature clearly exceeding that of 2005 can be expected within the next 2 - 3 years.»
The island's volcanism is associated with the rifting along the Azores Triple Junction; the spread of the crust along the existing faults and fractures has produced many of the active
volcanic and seismic
events, [22] while supported
by buoyant upwelling in the deeper mantle, some associate with an Azores hotspot.
The Permian - Triassic extinction
event was likely caused
by a giant
volcanic rift opened in what is now Siberia, and for tens of thousands of years it dumped gigatons of CO2 into the atmosphere.
If the missing rings are real but vary
by region then you should be able to do regional reconstructions that show dramatic responses to the
volcanic events in some regions (that didn't miss), and much smaller response in others (where the ring was missed).
I say usually, since there are cases such as the trees flattened
by the Tunguska impact, or buried
by volcanic ash, that quite obviously recorded direct effects these
event.
I've sometimes thought that global cataclysms like the largest
volcanic eruptions would disrupt the glacial records
by many years, like Oruanui eruption c. 26500bp, as these would induce unrecorded behavior in weather and other things, f.e. the huge ash deposits might decrease the albedo so much a local melting
event happens.
I think there is an important context here that is easy to lose in all of the emphasis on the thing that the trees don't appear to be doing well w / (i.e. the response to the high - frequency cooling
events associated primarily with explosive
volcanic eruptions): that's, the thing that the trees appear to be doing remarkably well with, i.e. capturing the long - term trends and low - frequency variability that is predicted
by the climate model simulations.
Indeed, one complicating issue is that many
volcanic eruptions are shortly followed
by large El Nino
events (e.g. Emile - Geay argue strongly for such a response to the AD 1258 eruption).
It actually ended up reinforcing a controversial hypothesis that had been put forward more than two decades ago
by a scientist who had argued there was a relationship between tropical
volcanic eruptions and El Nino
events.
This is what I meant
by dividing the
volcanic / sun / possible meteor impact and other «climate independent»
events.
Adding sulfur to the statosphere would do some real serious direct or indirect chemical chain reactions, already known
by past
volcanic events, when stratospheric Ozone concentrations dip after strong eruptions.
... we strongly support Delworth and Knutson's (2000) contention that this high - latitude warming
event represents primarily natural variability within the climate system, rather than being caused primarily
by external forcings, whether solar forcing alone (Thejll and Lassen, 2000) or a combination of increasing solar irradiance, increasing anthropogenic trace gases, and decreasing
volcanic aerosols.
I chose the 1997/98 El Niño because that
event wasn't opposed
by a
volcanic eruption and it was large enough to overwhelm the background noise.
REMOVING THE LINEAR EFFECTS OF ENSO AND
VOLCANIC AEROSOLS HELP TO SHOW THE TIMING OF THE WARMING Many papers and blog posts that attempt to prove the existence of anthropogenic global warming remove the obvious linear effects of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and of stratospheric aerosols discharged by explosive volcanic er
VOLCANIC AEROSOLS HELP TO SHOW THE TIMING OF THE WARMING Many papers and blog posts that attempt to prove the existence of anthropogenic global warming remove the obvious linear effects of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
events and of stratospheric aerosols discharged
by explosive
volcanic er
volcanic eruptions.
If
by observational data, you mean the amount of aerosols in the atmosphere, I think that would be a key piece of information that would need to be included in the models as without it the response to
volcanic events can not be modeled or predicted.
Radiative forcing produced
by explosive
volcanic events that have occurred in the historic period lasts for about 3 years.
As an example, using online monthly climate agency data I made this chart to help me understand how the long term temperature trends are affected
by major
volcanic eruptions and El Nino - La Nina
events.
«A climate pattern may come in the form of a regular cycle, like the diurnal cycle or the seasonal cycle; a quasi periodic
event, like El Niño; or a highly irregular
event, such as a
volcanic winter... A mode of variability is a climate pattern with identifiable characteristics, specific regional effects, and often oscillatory behavior... the mode of variability with the greatest effect on climates worldwide is the seasonal cycle, followed
by El Niño - Southern Oscillation, followed
by thermohaline circulation.»
Two weeks ago we looked at the Triassic - Jurassic mass extinction, some 200 million years ago, that was caused
by a large climatic warming
event after the break - up of supercontinent Pangaea led to the release of enormous amounts of first [
volcanic] CO2 and then methane [from disturbed clathrates — a positive warming feedback] into the atmosphere.
They have risen in response to all El Niño
events (over the term of the Reynolds OI.v2 dataset) that weren't counteracted
by volcanic eruptions.
We can see the temperature forcing of El Nino episodes driven
by the surface cooling from large stratospheric
volcanic events, and some research suggests that near permanent El Nino conditions existed during full glaciation ~ 20kyrs ago.
92) If one factors in non-greenhouse influences such as El Nino
events and large
volcanic eruptions, lower atmosphere satellite - based temperature measurements show little, if any, global warming since 1979, a period over which atmospheric CO2 has increased
by 55 ppm (17 per cent).
For example, there are oceanic cycles like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, comprised of El Niño and La Niña
events), an 11 - year solar cycle, and particulates released during
volcanic eruptions which cause short - term cooling
by blocking sunlight.
It kinda looks like the LIA was caused
by a series of
volcanic events and the ~ 60 year «oscillation» inspired
by more
volcanic activity while the globe was recovering from the LIA.
A rapid input of CO2, either from burning fossil fuels or from a big
volcanic event will cause a short term rise in atmospheric CO2, followed
by a rapid sequestration.
Further in the natural world CO2 is a feed back to temperature unless suddenly introduced in vast amounts
by really major
volcanic events e g the end Permian Siberian outpourings or the Deccan Traps.
Further in the natural world CO2 is a feed back to temperature unless suddenly introduced in vast amounts
by really major
volcanic events
Then throw in massive
volcanic eruptions and huge continent wide brush fires caused
by volcanoes or meteor showers (both theories I have seen in the literature) and you have many
events that could cause climate disruption on a large scale.
The difference between 0.5 to 0.6 and 0.84 may be largely due to GCMs often exhibiting too strong a response to
volcanic aerosols and / or a tendency for
volcanic eruptions to be closely followed
by El Nino
events.
Great mass extinction of species during geological history (late Devonian, Permian - Triassic, end - Triassic, Cretaceous - Tertiary, Paleocene - Eocene) have been triggered
by volcanic, asteroid impact and greenhouse
events associated with sharp increases in atmospheric levels of CO2 and CH4.
Professor Plimer said climate change was caused
by natural
events such as
volcanic eruptions, the shifting of the Earth's orbit and cosmic radiation.
What does seem to be known is that aerosols fall out of the lower atmosphere (as high as they can be launched with conventional bombs) in days, and persist for less than 2 years when launched into the stratosphere
by a major
volcanic event like Pinatubo which was equivalent to several H bombs.