Only looking at the Niño 3.4 index hides the fact that this event is more typical of La Niña Modoki, where cool SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific are flanked
by warm anomalies to the east and west.
The heat lost
by each warm anomaly as it passes eastwards must in part be lost into the bulk of the Atlantic water mass below, but there is good evidence also of significant upward heat flux during transit along the slope: despite microstructure observations that suggest that mixing is very weak across the Arctic halocline, heat budget estimates nevertheless yield significant vertical fluxes.
Not exact matches
Soon and Baliunas are «mindful» that the Medieval
Warming Period and the Little Ice Age should be defined
by temperature, but «we emphasize that great bias would result if those thermal
anomalies were to be dissociated» from other climatic conditions.
The question is whether the Comanche outcrops are an
anomaly or are representative of the vast stores of carbon and oxygen that would be predicted
by warm, wet greenhouse conditions on Mars.
The 20 - to 30 - degree
warmer anomalies in the Arctic have been matched
by 20 - to 30 - degree colder
anomalies in Siberia.
One of the methods championed
by climate scientists is represented in the fraction of attributable risk [FAR (Allen, 2003; Stone and Allen 2005)-RSB-, which assesses the attribution of climate
anomalies to anthropogenic
warming of the atmosphere.
Nevertheless, the large dip during 2016 in both difference series is clearly down to rapid Arctic
warming, as the following chart showing temperature
anomaly by latitude makes very clear.
«It is still far from clear whether cold
anomalies [in the mid-latitudes] are caused
by Arctic
warming (or sea ice loss) rather than being simply correlated with Arctic
warming, but driven
by something else.
The «bounce» seen in November 2010 was driven
by record -
warm temperature
anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly over land.
«If you can eat or wear it, invest in it»... Long term 3 factors might drive food prices up instead: 1) Global
warming and weather
anomalies; 2) 9 billion people in the planet
by 2050 (and then more); 3) Increasing role of biomasses in the renewable energy sector.
A linear trend fit to the annual mean
anomalies the last 17 years suggest similar
warming rates as reported
by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf.
There were a number of rather overheated claims earlier this year that «all the global
warming had been erased»
by the La Niña - related
anomaly.
I have a post at Nate Silver's 538 site on how we can predict annual surface temperature
anomalies based on El Niño and persistence — including a (
by now unsurprising) prediction for a new record in 2016 and a slightly cooler, but still very
warm, 2017.
All siding with its infinite growth paradigm, so I'm not surprised to see you writing counter-pieces to the harsh truth, which, as it stands, is that we have a pretty much dead and severely
warming ocean, daily record - breaking jet - stream related weather incidents, which in turn are caused
by polar temperature
anomalies of +20 C as of late.
16 Clifford Mass wrote: «People can understand when you tell them 1 C of an
anomaly is cased
by global
warming — it has meaning.»
People can understand when you tell them 1 C of an
anomaly is cased
by global
warming — it has meaning.
Again, as the temperature
anomaly associated with this jump dissipates, we hypothesize that the climate system will return to its signal as defined
by its pre-1998 behavior in roughly 2020 and resume
warming.
We have fairly high confidence that we observe the history of Heinrich events (huge discharges of ice - rafted debris from the Laurentide ice sheet through Hudson Bay that are roughly coincident with large southern
warming, southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone, extensive sea ice in the north Atlantic, reduced monsoonal rainfall in at least some parts of Asia, and other changes), and also cold phases of the Dansgaard / Oeschger oscillations that lack Heinrich layers and are characterized
by muted versions of the other climate
anomalies I just mentioned.
It is not that difficult — if the net flux
anomalies trend is positive the planet is
warming by definition.
Rob Ellison — «It is not that difficult — if the net flux
anomalies trend is positive the planet is
warming by definition.»
Looks like about 20 % of the recent «
warming anomaly» is introduced
by the «corrections».
Anthropogenic global
warming (AGW), a recent
warming of the Earth's lower atmosphere as evidenced
by the global mean temperature
anomaly trend [11], is BELIEVED to be the result of an «enhanced greenhouse effect» mainly due to human - produced increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere [12] and changes in the use of land [13].
We can calculate this
by subtracting the estimate of global
warming (red line) from each month's temperature
anomaly (black line).
The positive slope of
anomalys show that the rate of
warming is accelerating, not that
warming is occuring,
warming is proven to be occuring
by all Annual
anomalys simply being positive for the last twenty years.
Even if we consider that global
warming shifted the mean of the distribution
by +1.75 °C, an
anomaly of +6 °C or greater was still very unlikely — its chance of occurring in any given month was about 0.26 %.
«However, the detailed analysis of the numerical experiment reveals that the absence of substantial surface
warming in the Circumpolar Ocean is attributable not only to the large fraction of the area covered
by the oceans but also to the deep penetration of positive temperature
anomaly into the oceans.»
Very
warm springs have been
anomalies, but this new analysis of climate model data shows an increased frequency to nearly one in every three years
by the end of this century.
The
warming rate over the 40 years 1694 - 1733, demonstrated
by the Central England Temperature Record, a reasonable proxy for global temperature
anomalies, was considerably greater than in any subsequent 40 - year period.
It is not known if the BoM's testing paramaters which establish a 1972 metrication
warming anomaly around.1 C in Australia are applicable to New Zealand's temperature records, which show similar whole degree rounding patterns caused
by weather station observers not recording fractions in the Fahrenheit era and software communication errors in the Celsius era.
The graph shows month -
by - month
anomalies for selected
warm years.
However, during La Niña Modoki the
anomaly of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern Pacific isn't affected
by cooling but
by warming just like western equatorial Pacific, while a cold
anomaly affects the central equatorial Pacific (Niño 3.4).
You can't deduce anything using heat conduction from
warm waters above because you'll find it's so tiny that would take ~ 125,000 years to
warm / cool the depths to same as surface following a surface MST
anomaly if there were no currents bringing cold water through, so obviously the actual
warming from waters above is 99 % +
by fluid mixing.
Nevertheless, the large dip during 2016 in both difference series is clearly down to rapid Arctic
warming, as the following chart showing temperature
anomaly by latitude makes very clear.
You are spending a lot of time rationalizing WHY there was a «standstill» in global
warming (as measured
by the «globally and annually averaged land and sea surface temperature
anomaly»).
By October (vi), thermal stress subsided in the Gulf of Mexico; however,
warm anomalies intensified in the Windward Islands and expanded into the southern Caribbean.
An El Nino analysis released
by the national weather service last week says sea surface and sub-surface temperature
anomalies were consistent with El Niño during December, but the overall atmospheric circulation continued to show only limited coupling with the
warm water.
It is a global surface temperature
anomaly map which shows
warming (and infrequently, cooling)
by region.
Should those
anomalies turn negative... well, Perhaps that is why we have a new phrase to replace «global
warming» followed
by «climate change» now apparently we have «climate disruption» which of course can be USED to «prove» whatever those advocates of CAGW want..
This is based on the high correlation (r = 0.88) of the observed Global Mean Temperature
Anomaly (GMTA) to be represented
by cyclic global mean temperature pattern with an overall linear
warming rate of 0.6 deg C per century as shown below:
The metric used
by IPCC in all its reports for past and projected future «global
warming» has been the «globally and annually averaged land and sea surface temperature
anomaly» (as reported
by HadCRUT3).
Yet the linear trend on the Hadley / CRU monthly global temperature
anomalies for the 18 years 1995 - 2012 shows no statistically - significant
warming, even though the partial pressure of CO2 rose
by about a tenth in that time.
I have been keeping notes on significant cold weather
anomalies since appox 2014 and I will paste them below, obviously the low solar activity is the principle cause of these
anomalies but does human activity such as pollution - aerosals that humans emit make the conditions worse — that can not be proven but it's obvious that most of the climate change, whether it's cooling or
warming is natural not»cause d'
by human activity.
The disruption part is because they realized that greenhouse
warming wasn't evenly distributed across the globe but rather is apportioned
by latitude with higher latitudes getting a lot and lower latitudes getting little with the Arctic glowing like a hot coal in temperature
anomaly maps.
In this context, for the Administration to have released a U.S. Climate Action Report with a chapter on climate change impacts that identified a range of likely adverse consequences, based on scientific reports including the National Assessment, could rightly be seen as an
anomaly and appeared to be seen as a significant political error
by Administration allies dedicated to denying the reality of human - induced global
warming as a significant problem.
Regardless of whether or not the oceans integrate ENSO and portray it in sea surface temperature
anomalies, the West Pacific and East Indian Oceans
warm in response to both El Nino and La Nina events, so there is a cumulative response to ENSO
by a major portion of the global oceans.
«Taking these ten locations from across the globe andsuperimposing the
anomaly data produced a sine wave - like pattern with distinct cooling from the early 1940s to mid-1970s followed
by warming to present; for many of the locations the older data was
warmer, or at least as
warm as present.
In the March 2010 GISS temperature
anomaly map Finland appears as a «hot spot» surrounded
by cold temperatures: GISS station values are even more spectacular, the
warmest March on record is set in every Finnish station GISS is following.
These maps can be used to identify
warm anticyclonic features, usually characterized
by sea height
anomalies and a depth of the 26 °C isotherm larger than their surrounding waters; and to monitor regions of very high (usually larger than 90 kJ cm - 2) TCHP.
In particular, a stronger southern center - of - action of the NAO (i.e., a stronger high pressure
anomaly) and a northward shift of the SLP dipole nodal line is associated with greater precipitation deficits over southern and central Europe; and a southward shift of the nodal line accompanied
by stronger anomalous westerly flow across northern Europe and Russia favors enhanced precipitation and
warming in these regions (Fig. 4).
The
warm / rainy phase of a composited average of fifteen oscillations is accompanied
by a net reduction in radiative input into the ocean - atmosphere system, with longwave heating
anomalies transitioning to longwave cooling during the rainy phase.