The intense prehistoric hurricanes were fueled in part
by warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean during the ancient period investigated than have been the norm off the U.S. East Coast over the last few hundred years, according to the study.
Not exact matches
SEAS researchers suggest that early Mars may have been
warmed intermittently
by a powerful greenhouse effect, possibly explaining water on the planet's
surface billions of years ago.
In the new set - up, a real - world seasonal forecast driven
by data on current
sea -
surface temperatures will be run alongside a simulated «no global
warming» seasonal forecast, in which greenhouse gas emissions have been stripped out.
In June 2015, NOAA researchers led
by Thomas Karl published a paper in the journal Science comparing the new and previous NOAA
sea surface temperature datasets, finding that the rate of global
warming since 2000 had been underestimated and there was no so - called «hiatus» in
warming in the first fifteen years of the 21st century.
One study, led
by Chris Funk of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of California, Santa Barbara's Climate Hazard Group, looked at long - term
warming of the
sea surface in the North Pacific.
A second study, led
by Hailan Wang of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, used different model simulations and came to a similar conclusion: While a
warming sea surface did make it more likely that a high - pressure ridge could form, the signal was not strong enough to explain its extreme nature.
Hurricanes are powered
by energy pulled out of
warm seawater, so
sea surface temperature data collected
by satellites is fed into forecast models to estimate their intensity.
Complementary analyses of the
surface mass balance of Greenland (Tedesco et al, 2011) also show that 2010 was a record year for melt area extent... Extrapolating these melt rates forward to 2050, «the cumulative loss could raise
sea level
by 15 cm
by 2050 ″ for a total of 32 cm (adding in 8 cm from glacial ice caps and 9 cm from thermal expansion)- a number very close to the best estimate of Vermeer & Rahmstorf (2009), derived
by linking the observed rate of
sea level rise to the observed
warming.
«During Norwegian winters,
sea surface water is colder than at depth, so
by lifting
warmer water to the
surface using bubble curtains, we can prevent the fjords from icing up», he says.
SEAS research suggests that early Mars may have been
warmed intermittently
by a powerful greenhouse effect, possibly explaining the presence of water on the planet's
surface.
The reason could be linked to rising
sea surface temperatures — fueled in part
by global
warming — as seen in ocean buoy data collected along the U.S. coast.
But, according to a new analysis in the journal Geophysical Research Letters
by Ben Henley and Andrew King of the University of Melbourne, the 1.5 °C target may be reached or exceeded as early as 2026 if the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) shifts
sea surface temperatures in the Pacific from a cool to a
warm phase.
Long - term (decadal and multi-decadal) variation in total annual streamflow is largely influenced
by quasi-cyclic changes in
sea -
surface temperatures and resulting climate conditions; the influence of climate
warming on these patterns is uncertain.
However, extreme events may require the combined effect of increased prevailing winds and tropical storms guided
by the strengthened blocking high pressure and nurtured
by the unusually
warm late - Eemian tropical
sea surface temperatures (Cortijo et al., 1999), which would favor more powerful tropical storms (Emanuel, 1987).
A very recent study
by Saba et al. (2015) specifically analyzed
sea surface temperatures off the US east coast in observations and a suite of global
warming runs with climate models.
The East Pacific Ocean (90S - 90N, 180 - 80W) has not
warmed since the start of the satellite - based Reynolds OI.v2
sea surface temperature dataset, yet the multi-model mean of the CMIP3 (IPCC AR4) and CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) simulations of
sea surface temperatures say, if they were
warmed by anthropogenic forcings, they should have
warmed approximately 0.42 to 0.44 deg C.
Climate conditions favor
warm water growth — as measured
by sea surface temperature (SST)-- later in the year, suggesting that normal climate conditions effectively nipped the nascent El Niño in the bud.
Methods: In these experiments, the research team conducted large ensembles of simulations with two state - of - the - art atmospheric general circulation models
by abruptly switching the
sea -
surface temperature
warming on from January 1st to focus on the wintertime circulation adjustment.
A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained
by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self ‐ adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for
surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean
sea level, and
surface ocean acidification.
Warming was not uniform across the globe:
sea surface temperatures increased
by ~ 6 °C at high latitudes and ~ 4 °C at low latitudes, and deep - water temperatures increased
by ~ 8 °C at high latitudes and ~ 6 °C at low latitudes.
In contrast to historical droughts, future drying is not linked to any particular pattern of change in
sea surface temperature but seems to be the result of an overall
surface warming driven
by rising greenhouse gases.
Geoengineering proposals fall into at least three broad categories: 1) managing atmospheric greenhouse gases (e.g., ocean fertilization and atmospheric carbon capture and sequestration), 2) cooling the Earth
by reflecting sunlight (e.g., putting reflective particles into the atmosphere, putting mirrors in space to reflect the sun's energy, increasing
surface reflectivity and altering the amount or characteristics of clouds), and 3) moderating specific impacts of global
warming (e.g., efforts to limit
sea level rise
by increasing land storage of water, protecting ice sheets or artificially enhancing mountain glaciers).
------------ PS: The Global Coral Reef Alliance has documented dramatic declines in coral reefs caused
by global
warming of
surface waters, using satellite data of of global coral reefs and
sea surface temperatures.
Roemmich said the study illustrates that the hiatus in
warming of the
sea surface and the lower atmosphere is not representative of the steady, continuing heat gain
by the climate system.
In terms of power integrated over area, only northern Eurasia has a higher regional
warming in absolute terms — which suggests to me that
sea surface warming in the Arctic west of the Canadian archipelago might change the total
sea energy balance
by quite a bit.
Also, if you look at Table T2 in this paper, you will see that ocean
sea surface heat storage 0 - 700m from 1955 - 2003 (in W / m2) is always higher at northern latitudes than the corresponding southern latitudes in every case, even with the extensive Southern Ocean
warming as noted
by Gavin responding to # 18.
A significant northward trend (reduction of ice) in the winter - maximum ice edge is apparent, however, and appears to be caused
by the gradual
warming of
sea -
surface temperatures in the region (paper available on this if you want it).
I recall mention that Katrina was unusual because while crossing the Gulf «Ring Current» the deeper water pulled up
by the hurricane was almost as
warm as the
sea surface, so the deeper water fed almost as much heat energy into the storm as the
surface.
IF cool deep
sea water were mixed relentlessly with
surface water
by some engineering method --(e.g. lots of wave operated pumps and 800m pipes) could that enouromous cool reservoir of water a) mitigate the thermal expansion of the oceans because of the differential in thermal expansion of cold and
warm water, and b) cool the atmosphere enough to reduce the other wise expected effects of global
warming?
El Nino is characterised
by warmer than normal
sea surface along the equator in the eastern Pacific, whereas La Nina is colder than normal conditions over the same region.
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the
surface emitted
by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any
warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a
warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while
sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be
warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the
sea prevents much temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
Since
sea surfaces rose
by roughly 400 feet since the peak of the last ice age due to melting of glaciers, it is quite possible that a great many civilizations did decline or perish due to
warming, and in fact perished so thoroughly that there is no trace of them.
The contribution to
sea surface height
by thermal expansion is significant, but doesn't play a very big role in determining the temperature of the
warm pool.
Thus, if the (cooler) air above
warms by two degrees and the (
warmer)
sea surface warms by only one, then the differential in your scenario drops from 15 to 14, decreasing the strength of the hurricane.
The Philippines is located in the western Pacific Ocean, surrounded
by naturally
warm waters that will likely get even
warmer as average
sea -
surface temperatures continue to rise.
First the molecules in the atmosphere
warm up followed
by those on the
surface whether the
surface is land or
sea.
For example, clouds can cool the
sea by blocking the
warming rays of the sun or reduce
surface salinity
by bringing rain.
This
warming can be seen in measurements of troposphere temperatures measured
by weather balloons and satellites, in measurements of ocean heat content,
sea surface temperature (measured in situ and
by satellites), air temperatures over the ocean, air temperature over land.
The initial
warming also reduces the
surface albedo
by melting snow and
sea - ice, which likewise constitutes a positive feedback because snow and ice are effective reflectors of sunlight.
All the
sea surface water,
warmed by the tropical sun, is blown to the west of the Pacific and, to compensate part of the imbalance, cooler deep ocean waters well up on the western shores of Latin America (and spread all the way up to the Solomon Islands).
Although the IPCC climate models have performed remarkably well in projecting average global
surface temperature
warming thus far, Rahmstorf et al. (2012) found that the IPCC underestimated global average
sea level rise since 1993
by 60 %.
Additionally, the less
sea ice covers the
surface of the ocean, the more sunlight is absorbed
by the water, which scientists warn could accelerate the Arctic's
warming.
Jarraud said 16 - 20 percent of the 2015 rise may be due to El Niño, a natural weather pattern marked
by warming sea -
surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
Is it: The troposphere, close to the
surface air temperature,
sea surface temperature, the temperature of the deep oceans??? It matters, because the amount of energy accumulation which may
warm the atmosphere
by 1 K (K = Kelvin, same as Celsius) is only enough to
warm the oceans
by about 0.001 K.
Unlike hurricanes that are powered
by latent heat from
warm sea surfaces, extra-tropical winter storms along the eastern seaboard are primarily powered
by the pressure gradient produced
by the contrast between the cold continent and
warm Gulf Stream.
3) In my comment https://judithcurry.com/2011/08/04/carbon-cycle-questions/#comment-198992 I have proved, that the recent increase of CO2 content in atmosphere has been mainly caused
by global
warming of oceanic
sea surfaces, especially in the areas where CO2 sinks on
sea surface are;
sea surfaces on the areas of CO2 sinks are
warming by lag compared to climate
warming.
They describe abnormally
warm or cool
sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific that are caused
by changing ocean currents.
While tropical hurricane intensity is primarily driven
by latent heat from
warm sea surface temperatures, an extra-tropical storm is primarily driven
by baroclinic processes (differences in the pressure gradient) such as the gradient due to the contrast between the
warm Gulf Stream and cold continental air mass.
«What I think we can say is that the increase in intensity is probably accounted for
by the increase in
sea -
surface temperature,» he told the BBC News website, «and I think probably the
sea -
surface temperature increase is a manifestation of global
warming.»
The periods of intense hurricanes uncovered
by the new research were driven in part
by intervals of
warm sea surface temperatures that previous research has shown occurred during these time periods, according to the new study.