The intense prehistoric hurricanes were fueled in part
by warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean during the ancient period investigated than have been the norm off the U.S. East Coast over the last few hundred years, according to the study.
Not exact matches
In the new set - up, a real - world seasonal forecast driven
by data on current
sea -
surface temperatures will be run alongside a simulated «no global
warming» seasonal forecast, in which greenhouse gas emissions have been stripped out.
In June 2015, NOAA researchers led
by Thomas Karl published a paper in the journal Science comparing the new and previous NOAA
sea surface temperature datasets, finding that the rate of global
warming since 2000 had been underestimated and there was no so - called «hiatus» in
warming in the first fifteen years of the 21st century.
Hurricanes are powered
by energy pulled out of
warm seawater, so
sea surface temperature data collected
by satellites is fed into forecast models to estimate their intensity.
The reason could be linked to rising
sea surface temperatures — fueled in part
by global
warming — as seen in ocean buoy data collected along the U.S. coast.
But, according to a new analysis in the journal Geophysical Research Letters
by Ben Henley and Andrew King of the University of Melbourne, the 1.5 °C target may be reached or exceeded as early as 2026 if the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) shifts
sea surface temperatures in the Pacific from a cool to a
warm phase.
Long - term (decadal and multi-decadal) variation in total annual streamflow is largely influenced
by quasi-cyclic changes in
sea -
surface temperatures and resulting climate conditions; the influence of climate
warming on these patterns is uncertain.
However, extreme events may require the combined effect of increased prevailing winds and tropical storms guided
by the strengthened blocking high pressure and nurtured
by the unusually
warm late - Eemian tropical
sea surface temperatures (Cortijo et al., 1999), which would favor more powerful tropical storms (Emanuel, 1987).
A very recent study
by Saba et al. (2015) specifically analyzed
sea surface temperatures off the US east coast in observations and a suite of global
warming runs with climate models.
The East Pacific Ocean (90S - 90N, 180 - 80W) has not
warmed since the start of the satellite - based Reynolds OI.v2
sea surface temperature dataset, yet the multi-model mean of the CMIP3 (IPCC AR4) and CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) simulations of
sea surface temperatures say, if they were
warmed by anthropogenic forcings, they should have
warmed approximately 0.42 to 0.44 deg C.
Climate conditions favor
warm water growth — as measured
by sea surface temperature (SST)-- later in the year, suggesting that normal climate conditions effectively nipped the nascent El Niño in the bud.
Methods: In these experiments, the research team conducted large ensembles of simulations with two state - of - the - art atmospheric general circulation models
by abruptly switching the
sea -
surface temperature warming on from January 1st to focus on the wintertime circulation adjustment.
Warming was not uniform across the globe:
sea surface temperatures increased
by ~ 6 °C at high latitudes and ~ 4 °C at low latitudes, and deep - water
temperatures increased
by ~ 8 °C at high latitudes and ~ 6 °C at low latitudes.
In contrast to historical droughts, future drying is not linked to any particular pattern of change in
sea surface temperature but seems to be the result of an overall
surface warming driven
by rising greenhouse gases.
------------ PS: The Global Coral Reef Alliance has documented dramatic declines in coral reefs caused
by global
warming of
surface waters, using satellite data of of global coral reefs and
sea surface temperatures.
A significant northward trend (reduction of ice) in the winter - maximum ice edge is apparent, however, and appears to be caused
by the gradual
warming of
sea -
surface temperatures in the region (paper available on this if you want it).
Re 9 wili — I know of a paper suggesting, as I recall, that enhanced «backradiation» (downward radiation reaching the
surface emitted
by the air / clouds) contributed more to Arctic amplification specifically in the cold part of the year (just to be clear, backradiation should generally increase with any
warming (aside from greenhouse feedbacks) and more so with a
warming due to an increase in the greenhouse effect (including feedbacks like water vapor and, if positive, clouds, though regional changes in water vapor and clouds can go against the global trend); otherwise it was always my understanding that the albedo feedback was key (while
sea ice decreases so far have been more a summer phenomenon (when it would be
warmer to begin with), the heat capacity of the
sea prevents much
temperature response, but there is a greater build up of heat from the albedo feedback, and this is released in the cold part of the year when ice forms later or would have formed or would have been thicker; the seasonal effect of reduced winter snow cover decreasing at those latitudes which still recieve sunlight in the winter would not be so delayed).
The contribution to
sea surface height
by thermal expansion is significant, but doesn't play a very big role in determining the
temperature of the
warm pool.
The Philippines is located in the western Pacific Ocean, surrounded
by naturally
warm waters that will likely get even
warmer as average
sea -
surface temperatures continue to rise.
This
warming can be seen in measurements of troposphere
temperatures measured
by weather balloons and satellites, in measurements of ocean heat content,
sea surface temperature (measured in situ and
by satellites), air
temperatures over the ocean, air
temperature over land.
Although the IPCC climate models have performed remarkably well in projecting average global
surface temperature warming thus far, Rahmstorf et al. (2012) found that the IPCC underestimated global average
sea level rise since 1993
by 60 %.
Jarraud said 16 - 20 percent of the 2015 rise may be due to El Niño, a natural weather pattern marked
by warming sea -
surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
Is it: The troposphere, close to the
surface air
temperature,
sea surface temperature, the
temperature of the deep oceans??? It matters, because the amount of energy accumulation which may
warm the atmosphere
by 1 K (K = Kelvin, same as Celsius) is only enough to
warm the oceans
by about 0.001 K.
They describe abnormally
warm or cool
sea surface temperatures in the South Pacific that are caused
by changing ocean currents.
While tropical hurricane intensity is primarily driven
by latent heat from
warm sea surface temperatures, an extra-tropical storm is primarily driven
by baroclinic processes (differences in the pressure gradient) such as the gradient due to the contrast between the
warm Gulf Stream and cold continental air mass.
«What I think we can say is that the increase in intensity is probably accounted for
by the increase in
sea -
surface temperature,» he told the BBC News website, «and I think probably the
sea -
surface temperature increase is a manifestation of global
warming.»
The periods of intense hurricanes uncovered
by the new research were driven in part
by intervals of
warm sea surface temperatures that previous research has shown occurred during these time periods, according to the new study.
------------------------------------ And here's what the proxies vs. the highly adjusted instrumental data that have been hopelessly corrupted
by removing thousands of rural stations and keeping urban stations, moving rural sites to airports, «mostly made up» SH
sea surface temperatures, cooling down the 1930s and 1940s artificially to remove 0.5 C from the early 20th century
warming... look like.
4)
By interpreting the analyss of Bob Tisdale, the global sea surface temperatures used by Endersbee in his calculations have been controlled by warming of the sea surface waters outside the tropical sea surface i.e. mainly by the warming of the sea surface waters of higher latitudes where the sea surface CO2 sinks ar
By interpreting the analyss of Bob Tisdale, the global
sea surface temperatures used
by Endersbee in his calculations have been controlled by warming of the sea surface waters outside the tropical sea surface i.e. mainly by the warming of the sea surface waters of higher latitudes where the sea surface CO2 sinks ar
by Endersbee in his calculations have been controlled
by warming of the sea surface waters outside the tropical sea surface i.e. mainly by the warming of the sea surface waters of higher latitudes where the sea surface CO2 sinks ar
by warming of the
sea surface waters outside the tropical
sea surface i.e. mainly
by the warming of the sea surface waters of higher latitudes where the sea surface CO2 sinks ar
by the
warming of the
sea surface waters of higher latitudes where the
sea surface CO2 sinks are.
They avoid some of the issues in Millar
by using more globally - representative
surface temperature records, though they still use series that blend
surface air
temperatures over land with slower -
warming sea surface temperatures over the ocean.
However, during La Niña Modoki the anomaly of the
sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern Pacific isn't affected
by cooling but
by warming just like western equatorial Pacific, while a cold anomaly affects the central equatorial Pacific (Niño 3.4).
During that same period, average annual rainfall in New South Wales declined
by 3.6 inches (92 millimeters).3 Scientists think the decline in autumn rainfall in southeast Australia since the late 1950s may be partly due to increases in heat - trapping gases in Earth's atmosphere.3, 14 Major bushfires over southeast Australia are linked to the positive phase of an ocean cycle called the «Indian Ocean Dipole» — when
sea surface temperatures are
warmer than average in the western Indian Ocean, likely in response to global
warming.15, 16
You are spending a lot of time rationalizing WHY there was a «standstill» in global
warming (as measured
by the «globally and annually averaged land and
sea surface temperature anomaly»).
An El Nino analysis released
by the national weather service last week says
sea surface and sub-
surface temperature anomalies were consistent with El Niño during December, but the overall atmospheric circulation continued to show only limited coupling with the
warm water.
Warming is observed in land -
surface temperatures,
sea -
surface temperatures, and for the last 30 years, lower - atmosphere
temperatures measured
by satellite.
There has been an overall
warming of
surface waters (in the Bellingshausen and Scotia
seas)
by ∼ 1 °C in the last 50 years, but so far there is no evidence of any biologically meaningful
temperature change in waters below about 100 m deep.
The metric used
by IPCC in all its reports for past and projected future «global
warming» has been the «globally and annually averaged land and
sea surface temperature anomaly» (as reported
by HadCRUT3).
Australia's climate has
warmed in both mean
surface air
temperature and surrounding
sea surface temperature by around 1 °C since 1910.
As evident in the figures the near
surface air
temperatures are actually
warmer over the Arctic Ocean (
by over 1 °C in large areas) when the
sea ice absorbs solar radiation and transfers some of this energy as sensible heat back into the atmosphere.
The Japan Meteorological Agency said
sea surface temperatures around Japan had been up
by an average of 1.07 degrees Celsius in the past 100 years, which is double the global average
warming rate.
Climate models surveyed
by the Bureau of Meteorology have increased their chances of
sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remaining at neutral levels, though still
warmer than average, for the remainder of 2012.
Regardless of whether or not the oceans integrate ENSO and portray it in
sea surface temperature anomalies, the West Pacific and East Indian Oceans
warm in response to both El Nino and La Nina events, so there is a cumulative response to ENSO
by a major portion of the global oceans.
By examining the spatial pattern of both types of climate variation, the scientists found that the anthropogenic global
warming signal was relatively spatially uniform over the tropical oceans and thus would not have a large effect on the atmospheric circulation, whereas the PDO shift in the 1990s consisted of
warming in the tropical west Pacific and cooling in the subtropical and east tropical Pacific, which would enhance the existing
sea surface temperature difference and thus intensify the circulation.
In addition, the pattern of
sea surface temperatures at low latitudes is extremely important for regional climate variations (shown, for example,
by the increased likelihood of heavy winter rainfall in California when the eastern tropical Pacific
warms in El Niño events).
This study differs from earlier research into possible links between hurricanes and
warmer sea surface temperatures by looking as well at the effect of
warmer air.
The data indicate the
sea surface temperatures of the tropical oceans
warmed at a not - very - alarming rate of 0.11 deg C / decade, while the models indicate that, if the
surfaces of the tropical oceans were
warmed by manmade greenhouse gases, they should have
warmed at almost 2 times that rate, at 0.22 deg C / decade.
The shift was accompanied
by sea -
surface temperature (SST) cooling in the central Pacific and
warming off the coast of western North America [Miller et al., 1994].
As he pointed out, a dominant unforced contribution to
surface warming relative to forced trends would be expected to be accompanied
by a trend of declining OHC, which is inconsistent with the observed trends averaged over the past half century as evidenced
by mixed layer
temperature measurements and
sea level rise.
The
warm expanse has been characterized
by sea surface temperatures as much as three degrees C (about 5.4 degrees F) higher than average, lasting for months, and appears on large - scale
temperature maps as a red - orange mass of
warm water many hundreds of miles across.
This basin - wide change in the Atlantic climate (both
warming and cooling) induces a basin - scale
sea surface temperature seesaw with the Pacific Ocean, which in turn modifies the position of the Walker circulation (the language
by which the tropical basins communicate) and the strength of the Pacific trade winds.