Especially since Lewis does not actually
calculate the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity factor that is commonly referred to by the IPCC and paleo - climate analyses, but instead the on - going «effective» climate sensitivity as Gregory et al 2002 already pointed out.
In this context, the statement in REA16 that they do not
calculate equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) «to avoid the assumption of linear climate response» is peculiar: they have already made this assumption in deriving model forcings.
chriskoz @ 2,
you calculated the equilibrium climate response, wheras Dana calculated the transient climate response.
Not exact matches
The «
equilibrium» sensitivity of the global surface temperature to solar irradiance variations, which is
calculated simply by dividing the absolute temperature on the earth's surface (288K) by the solar constant (1365Wm - 2), is based on the assumption that the
climate response is linear in the whole temperature band starting at the zero point.
Aslo, regarding
climate sensitivity a very key thing to remember, especially if sensitivity turns out to be on the high side, is that the «final»
equilibrium temperature (Alexi's concerns about there being such a thing aside)
calculated from
climate sensitivity does not take into account carbon cycle feedbacks OR ice sheet changes.
Regarding ECS («
equilibrium climate sensitivity»), I think there are difficulties estimating anything truly resembling a Charney - type ECS from data involving OHC uptake and forcing estimates, because these estimates are fraught with so many uncertainties, and because the values that are
calculated, even if accurate, bear an uncertain relationship to how the
climate would behave at
equilibrium.
One thing to remember is that the «
equilibrium» temperature of the Earth is roughly 15,700,000 K. I arrived at this number using
climate science physics, one simply
calculates the «
equilibrium» position of the planet Earth, and one finds that it should be in the center of the solar system, not orbiting it, and as we all know there is a star at the center with an average internal temperature of 15,700,000 K
From the forcing and the
Climate Sensitivity Factor, the temperature impact of CO2 at
equilibrium is easilly
calculated.
Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic
climate change to
calculate climate sensitivity (
equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces awide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results.
As with CO2, we
calculate the
equilibrium temperature change by multiplying the change in radiative forcing by the
climate sensitivity parameter (λ).
Our
calculated global warming as a function of CO2 amount is based on
equilibrium climate sensitivity 3 °C for doubled CO2.
Standard texts make clear that they are deriving the change in the
equilibrium temperature, without clarifying what, if anything, in the Earth
climate system is represented by the
calculated result.
Alternatively, you can take an estimate of anthropogenic effects (e.g. the
calculated change in
equilibrium climate mean temp), and from that you can derive a conclusion about the natural variation.
Transient
climate response (TCR) and
equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) were
calculated by the modelling groups (using atmosphere models coupled to slab ocean for
equilibrium climate sensitivity), except those in italics, which were
calculated from simulations in the MMD at PCMDI.
We would expect the Gregory - ECS to be closer to the Transient
Climate Response estimates since it is not
calculated from
equilibrium assumptions, and indeed it is closer to TCR.
But that section speaks of
equilibrium climate sensitivity, while Dr. Orssengo is
calculating dynamic values.