Land stations are plentiful, and most are excluded from the database used to
calculate land temperatures.
If
we calculate land temperature averages from both the raw and adjusted data, we can see how much difference the adjustments make.
And even if Bates» critiques were valid — and given that this methodology, after much peer review, is now the default way that NOAA
calculates land temperatures, his complaints seem problematic — it doesn't upend the study's conclusion.
Not exact matches
I used was the surface
temperature responses from histAll --(histGHG + histNatural) to obtain the response to aerosols + ozone +
land - use and derive the enhancement of the response for that case relative to WMGHGs that I called E. Calculation of TCR based on histAll in a model is approximately the same as
calculating the sum of responses to histGHG, histNat, and histInhomogeneous where the latter includes the factor E.
«Linear
temperature changes
calculated using starting dates prior to 1965 [and ending in 2002] are positive for
land only, ocean - only, and total area.
First I
calculated the
land - only, ocean - only and global mean
temperatures and MSU - LT values for 5 ensemble members, then I looked at the trends in each of these timeseries and
calculated the ratios.
Both surface and satellite (
land only) time series, both as anomalies and as the actual absolute
temperature time series (from which the anomalies are
calculated).
Figure 1: Global
temperatures from models are
calculated using air
temperatures above the
land surface and also from the upper few meters of the ocean.
Raw
land temperatures were
calculated by assigning each station to a 5 × 5 latitude / longitude grid box, converting station
temperatures into anomalies relative to a 1971 - 2000 baseline period, averaging all the anomalies within each grid box for each month, and averaging all grid boxes for each month weighted by the
land area within each grid box.
Impact of the weather stations adjustments on the global
land - ocean
temperature record,
calculated using the Skeptical Science
temperature record calculator in «CRU» mode.
I
calculated this by using GISTemp to
calculate temperature anomalies for grids around the world for 1900 to 2010, using consecutively
land only data, ocean only data and combined
land & ocean data.
The three major groups
calculating the average surface
temperature of the earth (
land and ocean combined) all are currently indicating that 2014 will likely nudge out 2010 (by a couple hundredths of a degree Celsius) to become the warmest year in each dataset (which begin in mid-to-late 1800s).
Future global vegetation carbon change
calculated by seven global vegetation models using climate outputs and associated increasing CO2 from five GCMs run with four RCPs, expressed as the change from the 1971 — 1999 mean relative to change in global mean
land temperature.
we
calculated the global
land temperature using only rural stations.
If our assumed
land use changes occur a decade earlier, CO2 returns to 350 ppm several years earlier; however that has negligible effect on the maximum global
temperature calculated below.
Again you may go back to scientific papers of past decades when the issue of
land based observations was studied by the scientists as there was not yet much knowledge on the suitability of the available data for
calculating averages of the
temperature change.
Picking up on ryland's 1st post: Is an «Overall Weighted Average Sea +
Land Temperature» published anywhere (
calculated based on the following)?
In order to
calculate a
temperature both groups assume a single emmissivity number for the
land and then assume that it hasnt changed since 1979 — while the
land cover has changed and while snow cover has changed.
Loarie et al. (2009)
calculated velocities of climate change in terms of relative changes in
temperature gradients using three different emissions scenarios (A2, AB, and B1) and concluded that between 2050 to 2100, organisms now living in areas that cover about 29 percent of the planet's
land will have to disperse faster than observed post-glacial velocities.
If we
calculated global
temperatures without spatial weighting, we'd be treating the U.S. as 33 % of the world's
land area rather than ~ 5 %, and end up with a rather biased estimate of global
temperatures.
Like everyone else, SOD wants to subtract ULR (
calculated for an arbitrary ocean
temperature of 300 degK or 290 degK) from DLR (who knows where these numbers came from: most likely
land, possibly sunny ocean at 290 degK, possibly cloudy ocean at 300 degK, possibly some average that may even be reasonable for one — but not both — of these two
temperatures).
To capture this process in a simple form, station weights («footprints») for monthly maximum and minimum Australian average
temperature are
calculated as the fraction of the Australian
land area which is closest to each station.
To
calculate U.S.
temperatures for each, I convert the
temperature data into anomalies relative to a 2005 - 2013 baseline period, assign stations to 2.5 × 3.5 lat / lon grid - cells, average all the anomalies within each grid - cell for each month, and create a contiguous U.S.
temperature by weighting each grid - cell by its respective
land area.
Cartoon comparing (a) Fi, instantaneous forcing, (b) Fa, adjusted forcing, which allows stratospheric
temperature to adjust, (c) Fg, fixed Tg forcing, which allows atmospheric
temperature to adjust, (d) Fs, fixed SST forcing, which allows atmospheric
temperature and
land temperature to adjust, and (e) DTs, global surface air
temperature calculated by the climate model in response to the climate forcing agent.»
As I understand it global
temperatures are
calculated as anomalies, thus removing seasonal swings, but that Heat Content is not, Now our dear planet has an elliptical orbit and is sometimes closer to the sun that others; sure, the shape of the
land and oceans doesn't mean that the amount of incoming solar radiation falling on the oceans follows the Earths orbit, but it should be possible to work out the amount of incoming solar radiation each quarter.
In the case of Hadcrut
temperature series they use around 35 - 40 %
land data when
calculating global data, but GISS have a
temperature product using roughly twice this fraction for
land area as fig 7 shows.
The globally averaged combined
land and ocean surface
temperature data as
calculated by a linear trend show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C over the period 1880 to 2012