Not exact matches
There is a
calculating monitor, which indicates the
safe interval of sun intensity and sounds an alarm when you reach those individual
limits.
We find that the years with the lowest Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates were closer to the regression line (which we call the
Calculated Rates) than to the lower confidence
limit, the
Safe Withdrawal Rate.
This is the equation for the
Calculated Rate of portfolio CTVR50 The lower confidence
limit is the
Safe Withdrawal Rate.
This is the equation for the
Calculated Rate of portfolio HFWR50 The lower confidence
limit is the
Safe Withdrawal Rate.
y = HSWR80
Calculated Rate (percent) and x = percentage earnings yield = 100 / [P / E10] 1941 - 1950 y = 0.7318 x + 2.3723 1941 - 1960 y = 0.9635 x + 0.3354 1941 - 1970 y = 1.0644 x - 0.5469 1941 - 1980 y = 0.7842 x + 0.9624 y = HSWR80
Calculated Rate (percent) and x = percentage earnings yield = 100 / [P / E10] 1951 - 1960 y = 1.201 x - 1.2943 1951 - 1970 y = 1.1936 x — 1.2958 1951 - 1980 y = 0.649 x + 1.562 y = HSWR80
Calculated Rate (percent) and x = percentage earnings yield = 100 / [P / E10] 1961 - 1970 y = 0.6831 x + 1.1174 1961 - 1980 y = 0.5835 x + 1.5399 Confidence
Limits (approximately 90 %, add and subtract these values) Degrees of freedom... Confidence
Limits 10... 1.71 % 20... 1.63 % 30... 1.60 % 40... 1.59 % 50... 1.58 % 60... 1.58 % January 2000 Results January 2000 Rates (
Safe,
Calculated and High Risk) 1941 - 1950 2.33 % 4.04 % 5.75 % 1941 - 1960 0.91 % 2.54 % 4.17 % 1941 - 1970 0.28 % 1.88 % 3.48 % 1941 - 1980 1.16 % 2.75 % 4.34 % More January 2000 Rates (
Safe,
Calculated and High Risk) 1951 - 1960 (0.26) % 1.45 % 3.16 % 1951 - 1970 (0.20) % 1.43 % 3.06 % 1951 - 1980 1.44 % 3.04 % 4.64 % Even More January 2000 Rates (
Safe,
Calculated and High Risk) 1961 - 1970 0.97 % 2.68 % 4.39 % 1961 - 1980 1.24 % 2.87 % 4.50 % January 2003 Results January 2003 Rates (
Safe,
Calculated and High Risk) 1941 - 1950 3.86 % 5.57 % 7.28 % 1941 - 1960 2.91 % 4.54 % 6.17 % 1941 - 1970 2.50 % 4.10 % 5.70 % 1941 - 1980 2.80 % 4.39 % 5.98 % More January 2003 Rates (
Safe,
Calculated and High Risk) 1951 - 1960 2.24 % 3.95 % 5.66 % 1951 - 1970 2.29 % 3.92 % 5.55 % 1951 - 1980 2.80 % 4.40 % 6.00 % Even More January 2003 Rates (
Safe,
Calculated and High Risk) 1961 - 1970 2.39 % 4.10 % 5.81 % 1961 - 1980 2.44 % 4.07 % 5.70 % This Week's 2004 Results This Week's 2004 Rates (
Safe,
Calculated and High Risk) 1941 - 1950 3.29 % 5.00 % 6.71 % 1941 - 1960 2.16 % 3.79 % 5.42 % 1941 - 1970 1.67 % 3.27 % 4.87 % 1941 - 1980 2.19 % 3.78 % 5.37 % More of This Week's 2004 Rates (
Safe,
Calculated and High Risk) 1951 - 1960 1.31 % 3.02 % 4.73 % 1951 - 1970 1.36 % 2.99 % 4.62 % 1951 - 1980 2.29 % 3.89 % 5.49 % Even More of This Week's 2004 Rates (
Safe,
Calculated and High Risk) 1961 - 1970 1.86 % 3.57 % 5.28 % 1961 - 1980 2.00 % 3.63 % 5.26 %
Safe Withdrawal Rate Comparisons January 2000 1941-1950 2.33 % 1941 - 1960 0.91 % 1941 - 1970 0.28 % 1941 - 1980 1.16 % 1951 - 1960 (0.26) % 1951 - 1970 (0.20) % 1951 - 1980 1.44 % 1961 - 1970 0.97 % 1961 - 1980 1.24 % January 2003 1941-1950 3.86 % 1941 - 1960 2.91 % 1941 - 1970 2.50 % 1941 - 1980 2.80 % 1951 - 1960 2.24 % 1951 - 1970 2.29 % 1951 - 1980 2.80 % 1961 - 1970 2.39 % 1961 - 1980 2.44 % This Week 2004 1941-1950 3.29 % 1941 - 1960 2.16 % 1941 - 1970 1.67 % 1941 - 1980 2.19 % 1951 - 1960 1.31 % 1951 - 1970 1.36 % 1951 - 1980 2.29 % 1961 - 1970 1.86 % 1961 - 1980 2.00 %
Calculated Rate Comparisons January 2000 1941-1950 4.04 % 1941 - 1960 2.54 % 1941 - 1970 1.88 % 1941 - 1980 2.75 % 1951 - 1960 1.45 % 1951 - 1970 1.43 % 1951 - 1980 3.04 % 1961 - 1970 2.68 % 1961 - 1980 2.87 % January 2003 1941-1950 5.57 % 1941 - 1960 4.54 % 1941 - 1970 4.10 % 1941 - 1980 4.39 % 1951 - 1960 3.95 % 1951 - 1970 3.92 % 1951 - 1980 4.40 % 1961 - 1970 4.10 % 1961 - 1980 4.07 % This Week 2004 1941-1950 5.00 % 1941 - 1960 3.79 % 1941 - 1970 3.27 % 1941 - 1980 3.87 % 1951 - 1960 3.02 % 1951 - 1970 2.99 % 1951 - 1980 3.89 % 1961 - 1970 3.57 % 1961 - 1980 3.63 % High Risk Rate Comparisons January 2000 1941-1950 5.75 % 1941 - 1960 4.17 % 1941 - 1970 3.48 % 1941 - 1980 4.34 % 1951 - 1960 3.16 % 1951 - 1970 3.06 % 1951 - 1980 4.64 % 1961 - 1970 4.39 % 1961 - 1980 4.50 % January 2003 1941-1950 7.28 % 1941 - 1960 6.17 % 1941 - 1970 5.70 % 1941 - 1980 5.98 % 1951 - 1960 5.66 % 1951 - 1970 5.55 % 1951 - 1980 6.00 % 1961 - 1970 5.81 % 1961 - 1980 5.70 % This Week 2004 1941-1950 6.71 % 1941 - 1960 5.42 % 1941 - 1970 4.87 % 1941 - 1980 5.37 % 1951 - 1960 4.73 % 1951 - 1970 4.62 % 1951 - 1980 5.49 % 1961 - 1970 5.28 % 1961 - 1980 5.26 % Analysis:
Calculated Rates There are two effects that cause these predictions to vary.
Confidence
Limits (approximately 90 %, add and subtract these values) Degrees of freedom Confidence
Limits 10 1.71 % 20 1.63 % 30 1.60 % 40 1.59 % 50 1.58 % 60 1.58 % January 2000 Results January 2000 Rates (
Safe,
Calculated and High Risk) 1923 - 1930 2.08 % 3.79 % 5.50 % 1923 - 1940 1.95 % 3.58 % 5.21 % 1923 - 1950 2.04 % 3.64 % 5.24 % 1923 - 1960 2.05 % 3.64 % 5.23 % 1923 - 1970 1.47 % 3.05 % 4.63 % 1923 - 1980 1.59 % 3.17 % 4.75 % More January 2000 Rates (
Safe,
Calculated and High Risk) 1931 - 1940 2.02 % 3.73 % 5.44 % 1931 - 1950 1.58 % 3.21 % 4.84 % 1931 - 1960 1.61 % 3.21 % 4.81 % 1931 - 1970 1.00 % 2.59 % 4.18 % 1931 - 1980 1.38 % 2.96 % 4.54 % January 2003 Results January 2003 Rates (
Safe,
Calculated and High Risk) 1923 - 1930 3.23 % 4.94 % 6.65 % 1923 - 1940 3.05 % 4.68 % 6.31 % 1923 - 1950 3.34 % 4.94 % 6.54 %
This is a mathematical formula which requires only the two most reliable pieces of information to
calculate a
safe catch
limit.
It involved data evaluation and analysis, computer modelling and the development and trialling of alternative ways to
calculate safe catch
limits.
As we shall see, these countries, among others, have continued to negotiate as if: (a) they only need to commit to reduce their greenhouse gas emission if other nations commit to do so, in other words that their national interests
limit their international obligations, (b) any emissions reductions commitments can be determined and
calculated without regard to what is each nation's fair share of
safe global emissions, (c) large emitting nations have no duty to compensate people or nations that are vulnerable to climate change for climate change damages or reasonable adaptation responses, and (d) they often justify their own failure to actually reduce emissions to their fair share of
safe global emissions on the inability to of the international community to reach an adequate solution under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
Because scientists around the world, including James Hansen, America's leading climatologist, have
calculated that 350 parts per million is the
safe upper
limit for carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the atmosphere.