On the chart, the 12 - month first and last
calculated trend points are marked as red dots; for the 24 - month first and last, the representation marks are the blue dots; and for the 36 - month first and last, those are designated by the two bright green circles.
[For those counting: the count of their respective
calculated trend points are as follows: 459 calculated points; 447 calculated points; 435 calculated points.]
Not exact matches
A powerpoint and worksheet to revise seasonal products and averages, then learn how to
calculate 4 -
point moving averages, use them to plot a
trend line and predict future values.
Given these
trends, we decided to revisit the issue of teacher diversity, and we
calculated again our groundbreaking «Teacher Diversity Index,» an approach we pioneered in our first paper that ranks states on the percentage -
point difference between teachers of color and students of color.
If we chose to
calculate per decade (one data
point) we would lose all the information about the
trend.
Boris (# 121)
points out that contrarians are more than happy to accept the
trends calculated for a few distant planets if it obscures the cause of the
trends seen on Earth — even though the data which we have on those
trends have a great deal more uncertainty associated with them (see Nicholar L's # 88), and as an explanation in terms of solar variability is not credible (ibid.)
If you measure the temperature at 5.40 am and 7.40 all you have is 2 data
points — not enough to
calculate a regression
trend.
That's evident from the graphs I
pointed you to, which not only
calculate trends, but also present the data on which the
trends are based.
One can also
calculate the
trends over successive periods of, say, ten years, with start -
points separated by one year.
You need to
calculate the
trend from all the
points.
The changes shown in this figure are
calculated from the beginning and end
points of the
trends for 1958 to 2012.
In Part 1A and Part 1B we looked at how surface temperature
trends are
calculated, the importance of using Temperature Anomalies as your starting
point before doing any averaging and why this can make our temperature record more robust.
The anomaly is better for
calculating trends because it cleans up the end
points making the slope insensitive to the start and stop
point of the annual cycle.
Chart # 1 had 1919 - 1943 anomaly plot adjusted to start at same anomaly
point as 1991 - 2015 period; chart # 2 linear
trends are based off plots of chart # 1; chart # 3 uses 5 - year averages
calculated from each period's anomaly dataset and then the 1919 - 1943 5 yr average was adjusted (i.e. offset) to start at same anomaly
point as 1991 - 2015 5 yr average; chart # 4 cumulative differences calculation: the December 31, 1943 anomaly minus the December 31, 1918 anomaly and the December 31, 2015 anomaly minus the December 31, 1990 anomaly (both calculations covering a full 300 months).
The Surface Stations project has revealed that many of the thermometer shelters used for
calculating temperature
trends are currently located near artificial heating sources, such as the ones in the Marysville, California station shown above (the thermometer is at the
point labelled MMTS Shelter).
As a result, these two years may be used as start and end
points in
calculating the global warming
trend:
Those of you who want to
calculate the
trend of a profile after a peak by selecting a starting
point before the peak must understand that you are not
calculating the slope of the profile but the slope of the tunnel that starts from one side of the peak and comes out on the other side of the peak as shown in the following sketch.
These were used for comparing troposphere and surface
trends in the CCSP report that is a reference
point for both Douglass and Santer, as shown in their Table 1 below...... As a first exercise, I
calculated the lapse rate
trend between these three surface indices (collated into TRP averages) and RSS T2LT (and T2, as well as corresponding UAH results.)
For the larger 50S — 90S region a
trend over 1880 — 2015 can be
calculated, at 0.03 °C / decade, if a minimum of 15 % of valid data
points is accepted.
Whatever one feels about each of these years having only a single month's worth of data, I think it is reasonable to say we shouldn't
calculate linear
trends over 37
points of data when 2 of those
points are separated from the rest by 8 years.
The aqua colored triangles mark the first, last, and highest
calculated warming
trend points.
Similarly, I
calculated the linear
trend observed at the end of each decade based on Mauna Loa data (subtracting data
points 10 years apart, multiplying by 10 to arrive at the century rate of change): 1960 - 1970 = 85 ppmv / century 1970 - 1080 = 128 ppmv / century 1980 - 1990 = 157 ppmv / century 1990 - 2000 = 153 ppmv / century 2000 - 2010 = 193 ppmv / century