Sentences with phrase «calculating trend uncertainties»

A Hurst value of greater than 0.5 is indicative of «long range persistence» and complicates issues of calculating trend uncertainties and the like.

Not exact matches

Boris (# 121) points out that contrarians are more than happy to accept the trends calculated for a few distant planets if it obscures the cause of the trends seen on Earth — even though the data which we have on those trends have a great deal more uncertainty associated with them (see Nicholar L's # 88), and as an explanation in terms of solar variability is not credible (ibid.)

The data are available and anyone can calculate the different trends, I don't think I have any special method or anything, but for completeness the 1950 - 2006 trend went from 0.097 deg C / dec to 0.068 deg C / dec (mean of all realisations) a 31 % drop (uncertainties on OLS trends + / -0.017 deg C / dec; for 100 different realisations of HadSST3 the range of trends is [0.0458,0.0928] deg C / dec).

Actually for those 20 years analysed by Rossby our index shows an increase in the AMOC — but that is so small that it would be within the uncertainties of Rossby's calculated trend in the Gulf Stream.

By the way, the trend uncertainty when the trend is calculated this way is + / - 0.32, and, if one corrects for the serial correlation in the residuals, it jumps to + / - 0.86.

In paleoclimate, if you want to know the certainty of the average trend in the blade of the stick, you wouldn't take the extremes of all the inputs to calculate uncertainty, you take the variance in the output and use some method i.e. monte carlo or a DOF estimate.

To estimate the uncertainty in an average or a trend, all that is required is to calculate the average or trend for each of the 100 realizations, and estimate the uncertainty from the distribution of the results.

The uncertainty of temperature trends calculated from satellites is about five times as large as the surface temperature measurements.

A few months ago I calculated trends and uncertainties for the UAH data.

I do not need a «robust analysis of uncertainty» to conclude that the accepted trends are calculated from garbage data, and can have no possible result other than to produce a much higher trend than an analysis that properly accounted for these factors.

But I do know the difference between a simple linear interpolation and principal component analysis, and I can calculate the two standard deviations range of uncertainty on a white noise linear trend.

when you calculate the trend you also have uncertainty.

«Accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, a composite of several OHCA curves using different XBT bias corrections still yields a statistically significant linear warming trend for 1993 — 2008 of 0.64 W m - 2 (calculated for the Earth's entire surface area), with a 90 - per - cent confidence interval of 0.53 — 0.75 W m - 2.»