Because of well - known problems in calibrating dates from 3,500 years ago, he knew the lab would be unable to pin down the exact
calendar age of the samples, but the uncalibrated measured age of the cattle bones closely matched the latest equivalent dates for the cataclysm on Thera.
In these frequentist coverage tests, for each integral percentage point of probability the proportion of cases where the true
calendar age of the sample falls below the upper limit given by the method involved for a one - sided interval extending to that percentage point is computed.
Nic:... you assume that genuine prior information exists as to the true
calendar age of a sample, whereas I do not.
I think the fundamental difference between us is that you assume that genuine prior information exists as to the true
calendar age of a sample, whereas I do not.
Not exact matches
Of course, the table, so constructed, will only give the correct calibration if the tree - ring chronology which was used to construct it had placed each ring in the true calendar year in which it grew.Measurements made using specially designed, more elaborate apparatus and more astute sampling - handling techniques have yielded radiocarbon ages for anthracite greater than 70,000 radiocarbon years, the sensitivity limit of this equipmen
Of course, the table, so constructed, will only give the correct calibration if the tree - ring chronology which was used to construct it had placed each ring in the true
calendar year in which it grew.Measurements made using specially designed, more elaborate apparatus and more astute
sampling - handling techniques have yielded radiocarbon
ages for anthracite greater than 70,000 radiocarbon years, the sensitivity limit
of this equipmen
of this equipment.
As a result, we can select any ring on any
sample and can radiocarbon date it, and compare the radiocarbon
age to the
calendar date
of that ring.
There remains therefore finite probability that the RC
Age is drawn from any true
Calendar Date from 475 (say) to 750 (say) since a
sample from any
of these dates could give rise to the observed measurement
of RC
Age.
Subjective Bayesians will probably throw up their hands in horror at it, since it would be unphysical to think that the probability
of a
sample having any particular
calendar age depended on the shape
of the calibration curve.
In this hypothetical problem
of a perfectly accurate lab measurement, we now want to generate the pdf
of the «
Calendar Date given our perfectly accurate
sample - measured RC
Age».
The calibration curve is derived by taking
samples from objects
of known reliable
calendar date and calculating the RC
age on those
samples (using the same assumed initial mass fraction as in our
sample measurement).
The prior gives virtually zero probability to large intervals
of calendar age based solely on the shape
of the calibration curve, with this curve being the result
of physical processes that almost certainly have nothing to do with the
age of the
sample.