Well, it has to do with something
called feedback effects.
Not exact matches
This positive
feedback phenomenon,
called the runaway albedo
effect, would eventually lead to a single dominating ice cap, like the one observed on Pluto.
When I, with some colleagues at NASA, attempted to determine how clouds behave under varying temperatures, we discovered what we
called an «Iris
Effect,» wherein upper - level cirrus clouds contracted with increased temperature, providing a very strong negative climate
feedback sufficient to greatly reduce the response to increasing CO2.
The most remarkable sonic manifestation was when the acoustical mixture of the bird
calls and speaker
feedback generated a heterodyne
effect, a phenomenon that created phantom twitterings that seemed to originate inside my head and swirl around it like a localized tornado of sound.
In the original article Angela did write: «This
effect,
called the permafrost carbon
feedback, is not present in the global climate change models used to estimate how warm the earth could get over the next century.»
This
effect,
called the permafrost carbon
feedback, is not present in the global climate change models used to estimate how warm the earth could get over the next century.
Hansen seems to argue for a maximum rate of SLR, under BAU forcing, of at least 4 - 5 meters per century, somewhere in the coming centuries (including a negative
feedback he
calls the «ice berg cooling
effect»).
However both do in fact force global temperature, therefore both could be
called forcings and the greenhouse
effect of water vapour would then be a positive
feedback forcing.
It says this would be what's sometimes
called «a global tipping point,» in which many amplifying
feedbacks around the world produce a cumulative
effect in which Earth enters a «change in state, carried by its own internal dynamics.»
This vicious cycle is
called a positive
feedback, and is believed to add considerably to the basic no -
feedback greenhouse
effect attributable to CO2.
''... the warming is only missing if one believes computer models where so -
called feedbacks involving water vapor and clouds greatly amplify the small
effect of CO2.»
The presence of
feedback effects and tipping points
calls into question some of the most fundamental assumptions of climate change negotiations, including the belief that we can «overshoot» to, say, 550 ppm and then work back to 450 ppm (the path advocated in the Stern and Garnaut reports), that greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere can be stabilised at some level, and the belief that we can adapt to some given degree of warming.
One important determinant of how much climate will change is the
effect of so -
called «
feedbacks» in the climate system, which can either dampen or amplify the initial
effect of human influences on temperature.
The study suggests this so -
called «CO2 fertilization
effect» may also contribute to a stabilizing
feedback in the climate system as increased biomass production and organic deposition in marshes sequester larger amounts of carbon dioxide.
When I, with some colleagues at NASA, attempted to determine how clouds behave under varying temperatures, we discovered what we
called an «Iris
Effect,» wherein upper - level cirrus clouds contracted with increased temperature, providing a very strong negative climate
feedback sufficient to greatly reduce the response to increasing CO2.
Another example is the so -
called feedback mechanisms, which are introduced to amplify an
effect which is not marginal but does not exist at all.
Actually I think the claim is that CO2 warming (but mysteriously not «natural» warming) triggers other positive
feedbacks causing a runaway
effect (I won't
call it «greenhouse» because that's a misnomer).
It's all as it was in those happy carefree days of 2009 and before, BC (yes, Before Cli **** ga **) as we
call it now, when the MSM would happily «highlight the most alarmist aspects and downplay any mention of uncertainty» (Zorita), when no doubts were allowed, or should I say expressed, about the holy trilogy of WG1, 2, and 3 — how certain it was that the well - accepted theory of ghg
effect, and the impacts thereof, would lead to a Copenhagen / Kyoto utopia of global cooperation, and that the IPCC was cool (whoops, «the request for more research about the social dynamics of the IPCC, of positive
feedbacks as described by Judith, is meaningful for me» (von Storch).)
Some of these so -
called feedbacks amplify the
effects of changes that are imposed; others reduce them.
Motivated by findings that major components of so -
called cloud «
feedbacks» are best understood as rapid responses to CO2 forcing (Gregory and Webb in J Clim 21:58 — 71, 2008), the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiative
effects from forcing, and the subsequent responses to global surface temperature changes from all «atmospheric
feedbacks» (water vapour, lapse rate, surface albedo, «surface temperature» and cloud) are examined in detail in a General Circulation Model.
Brian's latest paper (with colleagues Tim Cronin from MIT and Cecilia Bitz from UW) is
called «Ice Caps and Ice Belts: the
effects of obliquity on ice - albedo
feedback».