This tendency for trends to flip with the passage of time is
called regression to the mean.
Not exact matches
Over a long enough time period such effects tend
to cancel out (a phenomenon
called «
regression to the
mean»), thus it is unlikely that a firm is consistently high performing just because of chance events.»
This tendency toward mediocrity — sometimes
called the Sports Illustrated jinx because an athlete is likely
to enter a career lull after appearing on the cover — is a variation on a mathematical principle known as
regression to the
mean.
Another potential explanation for the exceptional gains made by schools facing voucher competition is that their extremely low initial scores are affected by a statistical tendency
called «
regression to the
mean.»
If there is a reliable and helpful principle at works in our markets, my choice would be the ones the statisticians
call «
regression to the
mean».
A recent paper by Loehle & Scafetta (L&S 2011) in a journal known as the «Bentham Open Atmospheric Science Journal «(also discussed at Skeptical Science) presents some analysis using
regression to describe cycles in the global
mean temperature, showing us many strange tricks one can do with curves and sinusoids, in something they
call «empirical decomposition» (whatever that
means).