The authors of the Science journal report provide new calculations on
the cancelling effects of aerosols and GHGs on tropical cyclones.
Not exact matches
The warming commitment if we stop all human emissions (GHG and
aerosol) is probably very substantial: The cooling
effect of the
aerosol will very quickly disappear, thereby «unmasking» the greenhouse warming, approximately half
of which has been
canceled by
aerosol cooling up to now.
Plans and missions designed to study the
effects of clouds and
aerosols have been delayed or
cancelled, Charlson and his colleagues write.
Let me try to be more explicit: if you want to assume (or, if you prefer, conclude) that
aerosols produced by the increased burning
of fossil fuels after WWII had a cooling
effect that essentially
cancelled out the warming that would be expected as a result
of the release
of CO2 produced by that burning, then it's only logical to conclude that there exists a certain ratio between the warming and cooling
effects produced by that same burning.
If those
aerosols canceled the warming
effect of fossil fuel emissions from 1940 - 1979, as has been claimed, then they would have had the same
effect prior to 1940, regardless
of whether the volume
of both CO2 emissions and
aerosol emissions were smaller.
V 323: If those
aerosols canceled the warming
effect of fossil fuel emissions from 1940 - 1979, as has been claimed, then they would have had the same
effect prior to 1940, regardless
of whether the volume
of both CO2 emissions and
aerosol emissions were smaller.
But more generally, something I've wondered is: while in the global annual average,
aerosols could be said to partly
cancel (net
effect) the warming from anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, the circulatory, latitudinal, regional, seasonal, diurnal, and internal variability changes would be some combination
of reduced changes from reduced AGW + some other changes related to
aerosol forcing.
Let's see... many models show that
aerosols could have been artificially keeping the world's average surface temperature cooler by about 3 - 5 degrees C from 1900 - 2000 --(sulfate
aerosols certainly have some certifiable cooling
effects cancelling out the warming
effects of CO2).
... and all by itself... woops... a possible isolated, independent temperature rise
of 3 - 5 degrees C average world surface temperatures by 2100, not even including any other positive forcings, because the forcing is already there waiting for the
cancelling aerosol cooling
effect to be removed...
Furthermore, if
aerosols did have such a dramatic
cancelling effect at the onset
of WWII and during the following decades, is
aerosol cooling part
of the temperature models?
The
effect of both CO2 and
aerosols by mass in the atmosphere are not linear and do not follow each other in lock step, hence to claim that
aerosols would have a
cancelling effect no matter what the rate
of fossil fuel combustion would be a false assumption.
If only GHG forcing is used, without
aerosols, the surface temperature in the last decade or so is about 0.3 - 0.4 C higher than observations; adding in
aerosols has a cooling
effect of about 0.3 - 0.4 C (and so
cancelling out a portion
of the GHG warming), providing a fairly good match between the climate model simulations and the observations.
Over the last century, tiny airborne particles called
aerosols, which cool the climate by absorbing and reflecting sunlight, have largely
cancelled out the
effects of GHG emissions on tropical storm intensity, according to a new scientific review paper published in Science journal.
So far, the initial
effect is still relatively small for two reasons: (i) part
of that
effect has been
canceled temporarily by increases in sulfate
aerosol, and (ii) the warming has been delayed because it takes a long time for the vast mass
of the ocean to heat up.
As noted earlier, the IPCC's latest report indicates that the current radiative forcing
of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases and
aerosols effectively
cancel each other, so that the net
effect of all radiative forcing components is currently roughly equal to the
effect of carbon dioxide alone.
At the very least, the science indicates that we ought to consider
cancelling the «acid rain» controls and take advantage
of the cooling
effect of the
aerosols to buy us some time against greenhouse warming.
The warming commitment if we stop all human emissions (GHG and
aerosol) is probably very substantial: The cooling
effect of the
aerosol will very quickly disappear, thereby «unmasking» the greenhouse warming, approximately half
of which has been
canceled by
aerosol cooling up to now.
So, to
cancel out the
effect of carbon dioxide by
aerosols, even assuming everything else works fine, you have to assume that humanity will stay rich enough and organized enough to put up some new
aerosols every year for the next thousand years.
Plans and missions designed to study the
effects of clouds and
aerosols have been delayed or
cancelled, Charlson and his colleagues write.