While North America's largest oil and gas company did announce for the first time that climate change is a reality, the company does not mention the potential risks of
a carbon asset bubble.
The resulting losses will lead to what the organization refers to as the «
carbon asset bubble.»
In this case, however, I see good reasons to believe that the case for a «
carbon asset bubble» has been overstated and applied too broadly.
And, no, the former VP is hardly the inspiration for the «unburnable carbon» or «
carbon asset bubble» thesis (the folks behind Investor Watch have been leaning into this for a half - dozen years and, more recently, issuing a series of The Carbon Tracker reports).
Unfortunately, that's a distinction that some other supporters of
the carbon asset bubble meme don't seem to make, particularly with regard to oil and natural gas.
Not exact matches
Carbon Tracker, the analyst house which pioneered the stranded
asset or «
carbon bubble» theory, has warned a quarter of global oil refining capacity could become unviable and be forced to shut down within 20 years due to falling demand.
A small but growing number of countries now have legal requirements for institutional investors to report on how their investment policies and performance are affected by environmental factors, including South Africa and, prospectively, the EU.36 Concern about the risks of a «
carbon bubble» — that highly valued fossil fuel
assets and investments could be devalued or «stranded» under future, more stringent climate policies — prompted G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in April 2015 to ask the Financial Stability Board in Basel to convene an inquiry into how the financial sector can take account of climate - related issues.37
And even if we do continue on our same fossil - using path, the
assets may be creating what analysts are calling a «
carbon bubble» in financial markets.
This paper is designed to assist the TCFD members in assessing the «
carbon bubble» concept and «stranded
asset» risks inherent in the business - as - usual strategies of many fossil fuel companies.
The think - thanks research to date on «unburnable
carbon», the «
carbon bubble», and stranded
assets has ignited a new global debate on how to align the financial system with the energy transition to a low
carbon future.
The markets today are in a
carbon bubble, because they ignore future stranded fossil fuel
assets.
In the case of fossil fuels, the
carbon bubble effect due to stranded
assets has motivated some divestment activity, in addition to the ethical / survival concerns over increasingly serious climate impacts due to fossil fuels consumption.
Once the financial impact of stranded
assets are factored in, the
carbon bubble will collapse with large financial consequences for fossil fuel companies and their owners.
So the darker hopes arise — maybe a particularly furious El Niño or a «
carbon bubble» where the financial markets realize that renewables have become more scalable and economical, leading to a run on fossil - fuel
assets and a «generational crash» of the global economy that, through great suffering, buys us more time and forces change.
The combination of needing to limit
carbon dioxide emissions and having fossil fuel companies that are valued by their proven reserves is what
Carbon Tracker, a non-profit organization, is calling the «
Carbon Bubble» in their new report, «Unburnable
carbon 2013: Wasted capital and stranded
assets.»
The assertion of a
carbon bubble in fossil fuel
assets ultimately depends on investor ignorance of climate - response risks, presumably because companies haven't quantified those risks for them.
Mark has not only been a key ally of
Carbon Tracker since its inception, attending many of our early strategy sessions, he has also played an international role in extending our thinking around «stranded
assets» and the «
carbon bubble» whilst at Barclays.
Investors and governments should take note of the growing
carbon bubble and work to pull
asset prices down with regulation, disinvestment and accurate pollution pricing.
CTI have recently release a thorough response to Shell's letter on stranded
asset and
carbon bubble and will soon issue a similar response to Exxon.»
Through pioneering analysis into the «
carbon bubble» and «stranded
assets»,
Carbon Tracker investigates the financial risks faced by high -
carbon investments in the face of a rapid energy transition.
«There is a risk that focusing on «stranded
assets» or the concept of the «
carbon bubble» distracts attention away for the reality of a growing population, increasing prosperity and growing energy demand.»
This has fed into their thinking on assessing the «
carbon bubble» and «stranded
asset» risks of fossil fuel companies.
Yet, whether these
assets will become stranded or actually will lead to
carbon bubble, the risk increasingly has garnered attention from news outlets such as the BBC, the Financial Times and The Economist.
As the discourse around climate risk, the «
carbon bubble,» and «stranded
assets» moves into the mainstream of finance, coupled with the competitive returns of fossil free investing, campaigners have a robust set of resources to dismantle informational barriers like fiduciary duty and the cost of divestment.
And all this brings increasing recognition by investors that the
carbon bubble and stranded
assets are serious financial risks, which in turn reinforces the growing power of NGO campaigns against coal and CSG along with their fossil fuel divestment campaign.
With the energy sector showing signs of profound, disruptive change, and with the former chairman of Duke Energy arguing that a price on
carbon is inevitable, investors are rightly spooked by the prospect of a
carbon bubble — whereby fossil fuel
assets become stranded because they either can't be exploited due to climate concerns, or clean energy alternatives simply squeeze them out of the marketplace.