Only by
including carbon cycle feedbacks and longer time periods than 100 years in your projections can you come up with realistic long - term temperature estimates.
In addition to the aerosol and albedo feedbacks that will occur during these next few decades, the additional warming will
produce carbon cycle feedbacks.
By including
fast carbon cycle feedbacks, the team showed that 3 C could possibly reverse the sign of net carbon flows between atmosphere and land.
There could be other hypotheses involving fluctuations in solar intensity, frequent volcanoes shooting sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, or
rapid carbon cycle feedbacks.
The research article has the title Strong
carbon cycle feedbacks in a climate model with interactive CO2 and sulphate aerosols and appeared in Geophys.
Additionally, we have Anderson's computations showing that ~ 10 % CO2 emissions reduction per annum is required for years to stay within a (dangerous) 2 C ceiling target, and these numbers don't include the adverse effects of
major carbon cycle feedbacks.
Re the «peak fossil fuel issue», if all easily accessible fossil fuels in the ground are burned, atmospheric CO2 levels will hit 1500 - 3000 ppm (sink limitation issues and
carbon cycle feedbacks create the variability).
The lower three bars are the direct response to increasing atmospheric CO2 (see Section 7.3.5 for details), the middle four bars show the impacts of climate change on the carbon cycle, and the top black bar shows the range of climate -
carbon cycle feedbacks given by the C4MIP models.
Because this event signifies potential
large carbon cycle feedbacks, the Arctic has become a region of intense scientific study in recent years.
The lighter shaded areas depict the change in this uncertainty range,
if carbon cycle feedbacks are assumed to be lower or higher than in the medium setting... Global mean temperature results from the SCM for anthropogenic and natural forcing compare favourably with 20th - century observations (black line) as shown in the lower left panel (Folland et al., 2001; Jones et al., 2001; Jones and Moberg, 2003).
Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate -
carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs)
Update: I was just informed by one of the IPCC authors that the temperature scenarios without
carbon cycle feedback range up to 5.2 ºC, not 4.5 ºC as I had assumed.
In 2006, the Hadley Centre, working with other British researchers, published an important study, «Impact of Climate - Carbon Cycle Feedbacks on Emissions Scenarios to Achieve Stabilisation,» that included both ocean and
terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks (though they do not specifically model carbon emissions from defrosting tundra).
If concentrations start rising quicker due to
positive carbon cycle feedback, then IPCC might be willing to lower ECS to say 2 degrees, because you can still claim there is big problem.
The recently
quantified carbon cycle feedbacks that may occur if we follow the path of no mitigation make the achievement of the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas forcing level all too plausible.
It would survive the absolute worst imaginable consequences of catastrophic, ocean sterilising, 100m sea level rising,
horrible carbon cycle feedback global warming.