Not exact matches
This is an important positive
feedback on the
carbon cycle (the exchange of
carbon compounds throughout the climate system).
Many researchers are concerned that if old
carbon begins to
cycle it could create a
feedback loop — its emissions contribute to warming, which again contributes to the thawing of more permafrost.
Incorporating this local variability of plant traits in the ESMs will lead to more accurate modeling of
carbon cycle feedbacks.
«Our new simulation strategy paves the way for better understanding of the water and
carbon cycles in the Amazon,» says Gentine, whose research focuses on the
feedback between land and atmosphere.
General circulation models have generally excluded the
feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO2 concentrations from simple
carbon -
cycle models that do not include climate change6.
For this subsystem, many of the longer term
feedbacks in the full climate system (such as ice sheets, vegetation response, the
carbon cycle) and some of the shorter term bio-geophysical
feedbacks (methane, dust and other aerosols) are explicitly excluded.
The climate sensitivity classically defined is the response of global mean temperature to a forcing once all the «fast
feedbacks» have occurred (atmospheric temperatures, clouds, water vapour, winds, snow, sea ice etc.), but before any of the «slow»
feedbacks have kicked in (ice sheets, vegetation,
carbon cycle etc.).
Better understanding of
feedbacks in the
carbon and hydrological
cycles are of great interest.
If it is not, and if we agree that there is (or eventually will be) a
carbon cycle feedback, then it isn't.
Special attention is paid to
feedbacks of physiological changes on the
carbon, nitrogen, iron, and sulfur
cycles and how these changes will affect and be affected by future climate change.
In the other direction, at higher temperatures there is expected to be
carbon -
cycle feedbacks, that will amplify the warming, so then the climate sensitivty would be higher.
Dufresne, P.M Cox, and P. Rayner, 2003: How positive is the
feedback between climate change and the
carbon cycle?
Friedlingstein, P., et al., 2001: Positive
feedback between future climate change and the
carbon cycle.
Another may be the raising of the temperature of permafrost which will release methane and
carbon dioxide, increased moisture in the polar altitudes resulting in more methane in growing bogs, but there are other
feedbacks to the
carbon cycle.
Govindasamy, B., et al., 2005: Increase of the
carbon cycle feedback with climate sensitivity: results from a coupled and
carbon climate and
carbon cycle model.
For instance, the sensitivity only including the fast
feedbacks (e.g. ignoring land ice and vegetation), or the sensitivity of a particular class of climate model (e.g. the «Charney sensitivity»), or the sensitivity of the whole system except the
carbon cycle (the Earth System Sensitivity), or the transient sensitivity tied to a specific date or period of time (i.e. the Transient Climate Response (TCR) to 1 % increasing CO2 after 70 years).
Dufresne, J. - L., et al., 2002: On the magnitude of positive
feedback between future climate change and the
carbon cycle.
Then of course there is the
feedback from the
carbon cycle itself.
«There are known
feedbacks in the
carbon cycle that are not yet quantified, but that could add extra warming.
Despite claims to the contrary, the conclusions of the IPCC take CO2 fertilisation properly into account in the assessment of climate change
feedbacks involving the
carbon cycle, and in the assessment of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems.
To explore the potential importance of
carbon cycle feedbacks in the climate system, explicit treatment of the
carbon cycle has been introduced in a few climate AOGCMs and some Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs).
I'm increasingly thinking that what we really need is an estimate of the sensitivity of the system to an injection of
carbon dioxide including the
feedback from the
carbon cycle etc..
Consequently, an international team of researchers led by Markus Reichstein, director at the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry in Jena, Germany, investigated the influence of extreme climate events on the
carbon cycle of land ecosystems and if the resulting additional CO2 emissions
feedback on climate change.
«It's a vicious
cycle of
feedback where warming causes the release of
carbon from permafrost, which causes more warming, which causes more release from permafrost,» Field said.
To benefit from this
feedback loop [known as the carbonate - silicate
cycle], of course, planets must be volcanically active and they must be endowed with adequate supplies of both water and
carbon.
These approaches, however, do not account for
carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO (2) emissions.
Re the «peak fossil fuel issue», if all easily accessible fossil fuels in the ground are burned, atmospheric CO2 levels will hit 1500 - 3000 ppm (sink limitation issues and
carbon cycle feedbacks create the variability).
By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr - 1 is balanced by the terrestrial
carbon source, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled
carbon models2, resulting in a global - mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K without the
carbon -
cycle feedback.
The climate sensitivity classically defined is the response of global mean temperature to a forcing once all the «fast
feedbacks» have occurred (atmospheric temperatures, clouds, water vapour, winds, snow, sea ice etc.), but before any of the «slow»
feedbacks have kicked in (ice sheets, vegetation,
carbon cycle etc.).
It should be noted that in their projections the IPCC has not taken into account the positive
feedback from the
carbon cycle.
I think it is likely that the dominant difference is the
carbon cycle feedback in a rapidly warming world which was not included in the IPCC figure you linked.
My impression was that the AR5 would use the Shindell et al. figure, but the reported figures are lower (20 year and 100 year figures of 28 and 84 w.o.
carbon cycle feedbacks and 34 and 86 with).
Proposed explanations for the discrepancy include ocean — atmosphere coupling that is too weak in models, insufficient energy cascades from smaller to larger spatial and temporal scales, or that global climate models do not consider slow climate
feedbacks related to the
carbon cycle or interactions between ice sheets and climate.
The «slow
feedback» sensitivity is likely to be higher (since
carbon cycle, methane and ice sheet
feedbacks are very likely positive), however, estimating that from paleo is tricky since we are moving into a new regime which hasn't ever happened before.
Further research will be required to investigate if this fluctuation carries features of projected future climate change and the CO2 growth rate anomaly has been a first indicator of a developing positive
feedback between climate warming and the global
carbon cycle.
General circulation models have generally excluded the
feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO2 concentrations from simple
carbon -
cycle models that do not include climate change6.
The artic icecap is disappearing more rapidly than has been projected — as are the glaciers — and there is reason to believe that the positive
feedback from the
carbon cycle is already kicking in.
Specifically, changes in the Earth's tilt / seasonality that pace the glacial process and the
carbon cycle feedbacks that change CO2 by ~ 100 ppm.
What we can see from stabilisation scenarios and the possibilities of positive
feedbacks in the
carbon cycle is that we don't have two decades to wait to get detailed information to enable us to make a near - perfect cost - benefit analysis.
If the CO2 rise is a
carbon cycle feedback, this is still perfectly compatible with its role as a radiative agent and can thus «trigger» the traditional
feedbacks that determine sensitivity (like water vapor, lapse rate, etc).
The
carbon cycle today is actually acting as a negative
feedback, absorbing our fossil fuel CO2.
For this subsystem, many of the longer term
feedbacks in the full climate system (such as ice sheets, vegetation response, the
carbon cycle) and some of the shorter term bio-geophysical
feedbacks (methane, dust and other aerosols) are explicitly excluded.
Under the A2 scenario (which would seem far more likely), eleven different models involving
carbon cycle feedback were run.
However, in the global mean, these changes sum to zero (or very close to it), and so the global mean sensitivity to global mean forcings is huge (or even undefined) and not very useful to understanding the eventual ice sheet growth or
carbon cycle feedbacks.
If it is not, and if we agree that there is (or eventually will be) a
carbon cycle feedback, then it isn't.
Polar amplication is of global concern due to the potential effects of future warming on ice sheet stability and, therefore, global sea level (see Sections 5.6.1, 5.8.1 and Chapter 13) and
carbon cycle feedbacks such as those linked with permafrost melting (see Chapter 6)... The magnitude of polar amplification depends on the relative strength and duration of different climate
feedbacks, which determine the transient and equilibrium response to external forcings.
You claim (incredibly — in its original sense) that no - one takes this into account and by implication there can be no
carbon cycle feedbacks to temperature.
This is with conservative assumptions (including no
carbon cycle feedbacks), and other studies of this ilk predict higher temperatures.
i.e. something that could possibly happen (including
carbon cycle feedbacks) but probably won't.
The resulting increased / decreased ice is amplified by «various
feedbacks, including ice - albedo, dust, vegetation and, of course, the
carbon cycle which amplify the direct effects of the orbital changes.»