What is the absolute worst
case withdrawal rate when you own TIPS and high quality dividend stocks?
The historical worst -
case withdrawal rate was above 4 % in only 4 of the 17 countries: Canada, Sweden, Denmark, and the United States.
Not exact matches
It's time for another Safe
Withdrawal Rate case study today!
And if you like that one blog that does a lot of research on Safe
Withdrawal Rates and publishes
case studies for fellow FIRE enthusiasts and other fun personal finance content (wink, wink) please consider nominating it in one (or all?)
It's time for another Safe
Withdrawal Rate case study!
They focus on worst -
case maximum sustainable real (inflation - adjusted)
withdrawal rate over the 30 - year retirement interval as the main strategy performance metric.
The odds in favor of success are at least 50 - 50 in all
cases with a
withdrawal rate of 3.17 % and lower.
Here are some words from an article of yours entitled «Switching with S&P 500 Slices:» «In every
case, varying stock allocations with Professor Shiller's P / E10 would have improved 30 - year Historical Surviving
Withdrawal Rates substantially.
The worst
case 30 - year Historical Surviving
Withdrawal Rates are 6 % (plus inflation) and higher.
Or you could assume that, given your life expectancy, you'll need your savings to last only 20 or 25 years instead of 30, in which
case a higher
withdrawal rate might work out fine (although if your assumption is wrong, your final retirement years could be grim).
It involves information that occurs later (in this
case, 14 years later) than the date at which a Safe
Withdrawal Rate Calculation applies.
If that's the
case, you might consider taking some early RRSP
withdrawals now at a low tax
rate so that your income and tax bracket in your 70s and 80s could be lower.
What's more, in her
case the RRSP's tax deferral might be insignificant because she is already in the lowest tax bracket (29 %) and will pay tax on future
withdrawals at the same
rate, or even a higher
rate, depending on the amount she takes out in a given year, says Heath.
Vettese also challenges the four per cent safe
withdrawal rate and makes a
case for at least partly annuitizing, despite the widespread unpopularity of annuities.
For example, the safe
withdrawal rate changes over time depending on equity valuations and the safe
withdrawal rate can be vastly different depending on your age and expectations about Social Security, see two
case studies I did recently at ChooseFI and last week here on our blog.
Case 1: Initial investment: 10 lakh; start SWP right away 10K every month with
rate of return @ 12 % per annum (STCG tax and exit load is not taken into consideration here)-- your investment corpus will last for 480 months (40 years) and you will only be left with 8300 / - rs after 480 monthly
withdrawals.
Consider a drop to 75 % of the indicated
withdrawal rate as the worst
case downside risk associated with these strategies.
Withdrawal Rates at Favorable Valuations The
case against a single best allocation is even stronger when you introduce the human element.
In that same discussion, I also showed a
case where there is still an advantage to an RRSP even when the
withdrawals are taxed at a higher
rate than the contributions reduced taxes.
There may be other differences to consider, such as fees or early
withdrawal penalties, but evaluating interest
rates only, the higher - yielding CD in this
case would be worth nearly $ 1,500 more over five years.
The absolute worst
case was limited to 20 %, which is comparable to reducing a
withdrawal rate from 5 % to 4 %.
In this
case, the
withdrawal rate starts at 4 % of the total portfolio value but then increases by the amount of inflation each year.
In this
case, I've assumed a starting nest egg of $ 1,000,000 and a constant annual
withdrawal rate of $ 40,000 per year (or 4 % of the starting portfolio value).
Because there's more in the RRSP for that
case, the winner does depend on the final RRSP
withdrawal tax
rate: the break - even here is around 28.5 % (if you can withdraw at lower
rates, contributing earlier is better — in this
case you don't need to do much better than that working - years marginal tax of 35 %).
Just in
case my post wasn't clear please note that this post was aimed at a
withdrawal rate from multiple locations (ISA's, Pension's, NS&I ILSC's and non-tax efficient locations such as trading accounts) and not just from a Pension.
It is true that a TFSA may be a better choice than an RRSP in some
cases, such as if you expect a higher tax
rate upon
withdrawal or will face clawback (repayment) of government benefits.
Historical Surviving
Withdrawal Rates are the maximum withdrawal amount that would have survived a full period (in this case,
Withdrawal Rates are the maximum
withdrawal amount that would have survived a full period (in this case,
withdrawal amount that would have survived a full period (in this
case, 30 years).
If Elrond wants to be somewhat conservative and use 3.6 % as his sustainable
withdrawal rate, then under the base
case scenario, he needs to bump his current savings
rate of $ 7,000 / yr up to over $ 9,500 / yr.
Conversely, with some tax - deferred accounts, you may contribute pretax dollars to qualified retirement savings plans, such as IRAs or company - sponsored 401 (k) s, in which
case distributions or
withdrawals are taxed at ordinary income tax
rates when they occur after age 59 1/2.
-LSB-...] of my favorites: The Ultimate Guide to Safe
Withdrawal Rates — Part 1: Introduction is the first post in a 23 - part series (not including reader
case studies!)
It's a worse -
case scenario (that's what a safe
withdrawal rate is intended to identify).
This rules seems to assume that taxes on
withdrawals are paid at your marginal
rate which is not the
case.
In Sue's
case, she has no other income and the
withdrawal will be taxed at the average tax
rate which of course is made up of the various tax
rates inherent in earning $ 102,000.
What is the worst
case continuing
withdrawal rate?
If you rely solely on a portfolio of stocks and bonds for retirement income, you have to set a conservative
withdrawal rate in
case markets perform unusually poorly or you live exceptionally long (or both).
Worst
case: wait a couple of years and retire with a 5.5 % per year continuing
withdrawal rate (plus inflation).
There's a
case in which a
withdrawal rate of 4.1 percent failed.
The sentence reads: «Given that safe
withdrawal rates are based on historical worst -
case scenarios, and given the information we have about how bad those historical scenarios have been, we can begin to understand how bad returns would really have to be, from here, to lead to a safe
withdrawal rate that is worse than anything seen in history.»
The return scenarios that have applied in the historical record are considered and the
withdrawal rate that barely works in the event that the worst -
case return scenario happens to pop up starting from...
The worst
case 30 - year Historical Surviving
Withdrawal Rate of HSWR100V was 3.0 % for the sequence beginning in 1929.
Take the ratio of the
withdrawal percentage (in this
case, 3 %) to the coupon
rate, in the example around 2 %.
The worst
case 30 - year Historical Surviving
Withdrawal Rate was 3.5 % for the sequence beginning in 1929.
The worst
case 30 - year Historical Surviving
Withdrawal Rate of HSWR100C was 3.5 % for the sequence beginning in 1929.
The safe
withdrawal rate is defined as the
withdrawal rate that will work if the worst -
case scenario ever seen in history happens to pop up -LSB-...]
«If that figure is more than 20 percent higher than your initial
rate (5 percent in this
case), then reduce your
withdrawal by 10 percent,» Ruedi advises.
If you find more than one with essentially identical
rates, a secondary point of comparison would be to see which has the least severe early
withdrawal penalty, just in
case you need to access your money earlier than expected.
In the
case of a cash
withdrawal from an ATM, the fee will reduced from a
rate of $ 5 + 2.5 % of the transaction value, to a flat $ 5 per transaction.
In
cases where the marginal federal tax
rate is 33 percent rather than 28 percent, the combined tax
rate, including the penalty tax, can approach 50 percent, The penalty tax, which is not deductible on either the federal or state tax return, can make
withdrawals before age 59 1/2 prohibitively expensive.